Why I Don't Believe in TA

TheMagican · Feb 14, 2013

Quote from HurricaneUS:

come on... our winning positions on?

illusionist

marketsurfer · Feb 14, 2013

Quote from Eyez:

I understand your reluctance to reply to my request surf;

Because at the end of the day you will not extract any kind of value/information from me.

And the only upside for you is being humiliated, in real-time.

You see it on the surf report regularly, in real time, before the fact. Are you afraid to post before the fact calls? Remember, you don't make the rules, the market does and it has no interest in you. Otherwise you wouldn't be following me around trying to get attention.

cornix · Feb 14, 2013

Quote from trader198:

TA is an after -fact anaylysis amusement. do not be obsessed with that.

TA traders are contrarians. when they saw price fell to a point it stops, then bounce, they say that is support, so when it falls to the low again, they predict: it will bounce again. he, that is nice. it is predictable.

or when it falls to the low again, it breaks through the low, they will say that is breakdown. so they predict: next time, if we see it falls to new low again, we sell. you see "I am smart", I can predict its breakdown.

can you predict the market? no.

some TA traders may argue: this setup can produce 80% chance of winning, and they rigiously backtested TA ideas. their prediction is 80% right. so in the long run, if we execute the system good enough time, we will win.

but they forget: their historical data is limited, plus new data forward is not tested, the probability so obtained is not correct, or serevely biaed.

I often laugh at how those geeks do trading like that. what I know is TA does not work at all. it is just a tool to measure facts.

just a ruler, used to measure height or length.

for example, put a EMA on a chart, you will see a smooth trend. beautiful math curve!! filter out lots of noises, make you see clear.

nothing more than that. a nice curve will not make you money.

in reality, they twist the facts with simple math, no wonder they lose.

Same old question to you: if not TA, then what? Fundamentals only?

HurricaneUS · Feb 14, 2013

Surf is "in the closet" when it comes to TA. Price Drivers are nothing more than a rudimentary form of TA

Eyez · Feb 14, 2013

Quote from marketsurfer:

You see it on the surf report regularly, in real time, before the fact. Are you afraid to post before the fact calls? Remember, you don't make the rules, the market does and it has no interest in you. Otherwise you wouldn't be following me around trying to get attention.

Again, I understand your reluctance. You want someone to *SHOW* you a working TA system. No one gives a shit about your report or undermining your ability to trade. If you wanna call stuff out and then can't back it up in a real-time environment; you're full of shit.

Put up or shut up.

FYI. I am not following you, you have 3-4 threads ongoing which you constantly update with the same shit. Someone needs to show you your place which behind a computer writing blogs and writing content. Not actual trading. IF you don't like getting called out on your shit, stop making so much fucking noise.

hard kore · Feb 14, 2013

shit storm brewing.

R. Raskolnikov · Feb 14, 2013

Journals on ET, for live calls, are not the best options possible. I agree with Eyez. Unless one is engaged in a medium that does not allow for editing, then the legitimacy of a journal is too easily questioned.

Quote from Eyez:

Real-time is much better, no journals, real-time in live markets.

As the ticker tape is ticking, and conversations you can't go back and edit within a 30 minute period.

cornix · Feb 14, 2013

Quote from R. Raskolnikov:

Journals on ET, for live calls, are not the best options possible. I agree with Eyez. Unless one is engaged in a medium that does not allow for editing, then the legitimacy of a journal is too easily questioned.

Surf challenged me last Summer and I presented trades posted on 3rd party verified site so that no doubts exist. Wonder why those who like to claim how superior their method is not make long-term calls in a similar environment too...

R. Raskolnikov · Feb 14, 2013

Surf spends a lot of time in "prove it to me mode" but here are two examples of people reaching out (your 50+ 3rd party verified trades and Eyez here on this thread) and the OP deflects. It's quite baffling really. This guy claims to want so badly proof that TA can work, yet his actions do not at all reflect this whatsoever. He insists that the only way is to post here, where a 30 min editing window can render live calls fairly useless. It's almost as if he wants to be able to use that as an excuse if someone were to show consistent success via TA trading.

I agree with Eyez, his suggestion makes way more sense than the OP's.

Quote from cornix:

Surf challenged me last Summer and I presented trades posted on 3rd party verified site so that no doubts exist. Wonder why those who like to claim how superior their method is not make long-term calls in a similar environment too...

TheMagican · Feb 14, 2013

Quote from Eyez:

Again, I understand your reluctance. You want someone to *SHOW* you a working TA system. No one gives a shit about your report or undermining your ability to trade. If you wanna call stuff out and then can't back it up in a real-time environment; you're full of shit.

Put up or shut up.

FYI. I am not following you, you have 3-4 threads ongoing which you constantly update with the same shit. Someone needs to show you your place which behind a computer writing blogs and writing content. Not actual trading. IF you don't like getting called out on your shit, stop making so much fucking noise.

And you are an ardent TA screw up,aren`t you?Otherwise,you wouldn`t be so angry at those who got it.