Why I Don't Believe in TA

[cornix]

Quote from marketsurfer:


My thought is TA can be used in an objective manner but when it is, it fails to produce results that are any better than random. See David Aronson's book- Evidence Based TA-- When an edge is shown in TA ( usually over the long term) it is never enough to cover the costs of the trades over a statistically relevant time series.

Please define what you mean when you say TA. That would be a good place to start a useful discussion.

surf

For now, let's just cut it to PA (price action) and possible derivatives of it aka price indicators for the sake of experiment.

I define PA as making trading decisions depending on past prices alone.

 

[marketsurfer]

Quote from cornix:

I am glad you understand that I do not religiously defend one analytical approach versus another, but rather seek for the truth.

Would be interesting to read possible answers indeed and I even have one myself: arbitrage opportunities are completely objective and quantifiable as well as other "mispricing" phenomenons so to say. I used to exploit a couple of such edges myself back in 2005/6 (they soon disappeared though which is typical for this kind of an edge).

Have one question to you in relation to Linda Raschke as far as LBRgroup was mentioned: she clearly states usefulness of TA and she's a legit trader. What do you think about this case: new market wizard openly saying she uses TA?

I don't talk about LBR for personal reasons. Anyone else?

 

[marketsurfer]

Quote from cornix:

For now, let's just cut it to PA (price action) and possible derivatives of it aka price indicators for the sake of experiment.

I define PA as making trading decisions depending on past prices alone.

May I add that you view past prices on a price chart? Such as a candle stick or bar chart?

 

[cornix]

Quote from marketsurfer:

I don't talk about LBR for personal reasons. Anyone else?

No problem, I understand, let's wait for others' versions.

 

[cornix]

Quote from marketsurfer:

May I add that you view past prices on a price chart? Such as a candle stick or bar chart?

It's not really that critical, because chart is just graphical presentation of trades occurred, be it candlestick, bar or exotic, such as Kagi, Renko or P&F is a question of taste just like choice of price derived indicators rather than essential element of data input.

In my (possible objective) view making trading decisions based on OHLC numbers printed in the newspaper or based on the same numbers demonstrated by the candlestick chart are both cases of PA/TA reading.

 

[Pekelo]

Hey, ain't technology great? Here is Suzanne's webinar:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UHfdDrRSWmY

"This webinar presented by Professional Trader and Trading Coach Suzanne Bodlovic, features a method of analyzing markets using momentum patterns while combining multiple charting time frames to confirm market trend to help give traders an edge on being on the profitable side of the trade and avoid over-trading."

 

[marketsurfer]

Quote from Pekelo:

Hey, ain't technology great? Here is Suzanne's webinar:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UHfdDrRSWmY

"This webinar presented by Professional Trader and Trading Coach Suzanne Bodlovic, features a method of analyzing markets using momentum patterns while combining multiple charting time frames to confirm market trend to help give traders an edge on being on the profitable side of the trade and avoid over-trading."

Funny! she looks very similar to LBR. Sisters???

 

[R. Raskolnikov]

Her physical appearance does not show up in the video, you must not have looked at it.

Quote from marketsurfer:

Funny! she looks very similar to LBR. Sisters???

 

[rt454]

Quote from cornix:

In my (possible objective) view making trading decisions based on OHLC numbers printed in the newspaper or based on the same numbers demonstrated by the candlestick chart are both cases of PA/TA reading.

I was going to say TA is making trading decisions on something other than income statements, balance sheets, PE ratios, PEG ratios, news, etc. I like your description better.

 

[cornix]

Quote from R. Raskolnikov:

Her physical appearance does not show up in the video, you must not have looked at it.