Why I Don't Believe in TA
- Thread starter marketsurfer
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Copy from my post in the other thread on Surf's #2 point:
"This is a flawed argument against TA though, because it doesn't matter how many players cause the move. A move is a move and I have yet to hear about a sane hedge fund manager who just yells "buy!" or "sell!". Rather if he concluded he wants to buy or sell a certain instrument he would (almost have no doubts about it) instruct his traders to do that and professional traders execute large orders in a manner which possibly doesn't move the market against them too much... exactly the behavior us, day traders deliberately look for and are happy to see."
#1 is also flawed, because market is not random like coin flip. If market was random there would be no consistent money to be made ever.
#3 just proves that there were no rigorous studies performed, because obviously TA does work which is confirmed by real live experience.
#4 Probably true, I don't know exactly as I've never traded in a prop/bank desk.
"This is a flawed argument against TA though, because it doesn't matter how many players cause the move. A move is a move and I have yet to hear about a sane hedge fund manager who just yells "buy!" or "sell!". Rather if he concluded he wants to buy or sell a certain instrument he would (almost have no doubts about it) instruct his traders to do that and professional traders execute large orders in a manner which possibly doesn't move the market against them too much... exactly the behavior us, day traders deliberately look for and are happy to see."
#1 is also flawed, because market is not random like coin flip. If market was random there would be no consistent money to be made ever.
#3 just proves that there were no rigorous studies performed, because obviously TA does work which is confirmed by real live experience.
#4 Probably true, I don't know exactly as I've never traded in a prop/bank desk.
I should have added earlier I used to post as Yoohoo. I was a pro gambler for a while and it was very interesting studying the styles of 7 of the world's top horse racing pro gamblers. There are many, many similarities with trading and essentially each of them said their way was best and what the other 6 were doing was a sure way to ruin.
There's more than one way to skin a cat and in gambling everyone says they want to win, but exceptionally few pay any kind of price in in-depth study and assume their failure is representative of everyone elses results. Even paying a price in blood, sweat and tears and failing doesn't prove anything more than you don't have the ability to join the dots. The OP shouldn't believe in TA because he has proven to himself that his TA fails, but to keep posting TA doesn't work only shows his inability to make his form of TA work.
The Federal Reserve is much better placed and resourced to provide a quality answer to the question about TA as a myth or a working methodology and when they conclude it works then any honest researcher will sit up and take notice...
http://research.stlouisfed.org/wp/2011/2011-001.pdf
To say TA doesn't work as a means of quantifying risk reward ratios is like saying no one can win at gambling. You might be a sore loser, but that doesn't mean there aren't happy winners.
I believe in TA because I see mine work every day, over and over, but that's a personal and private view. You can believe in surf's failed TA or the Fed's successful TA and decide which opinion carries most weight. I have made more than 100 before the event calls on ET and you can compare them to surf's... there are even a few in Surf's Special Situation Journal which surf calls lucky
I'm one very lucky guy
There's more than one way to skin a cat and in gambling everyone says they want to win, but exceptionally few pay any kind of price in in-depth study and assume their failure is representative of everyone elses results. Even paying a price in blood, sweat and tears and failing doesn't prove anything more than you don't have the ability to join the dots. The OP shouldn't believe in TA because he has proven to himself that his TA fails, but to keep posting TA doesn't work only shows his inability to make his form of TA work.
The Federal Reserve is much better placed and resourced to provide a quality answer to the question about TA as a myth or a working methodology and when they conclude it works then any honest researcher will sit up and take notice...
http://research.stlouisfed.org/wp/2011/2011-001.pdf
To say TA doesn't work as a means of quantifying risk reward ratios is like saying no one can win at gambling. You might be a sore loser, but that doesn't mean there aren't happy winners.
I believe in TA because I see mine work every day, over and over, but that's a personal and private view. You can believe in surf's failed TA or the Fed's successful TA and decide which opinion carries most weight. I have made more than 100 before the event calls on ET and you can compare them to surf's... there are even a few in Surf's Special Situation Journal which surf calls lucky
I'm one very lucky guy
Quote from Pekelo:
What Surf should understand that in this case you can't prove a negative.
What we should understand that recently Surf and Baron met, and since ET's traffic is down, Surf helps to create "content" thus page views.
So threads like this is good for nothing else but to generate traffic....
There cab be no other reason. I will help the cause and NOT take up space that can best be used by surf being the negatron. Done for a few months (for sure this time).
Oh, i've seen how marketsurfer goes about his/her business. One word.
DOOMED.
DOOMED.
Quote from Pekelo:
What Surf should understand that in this case you can't prove a negative.
What we should understand that recently Surf and Baron met, and since ET's traffic is down, Surf helps to create "content" thus page views.
So threads like this is good for nothing else but to generate traffic....
Yeah, but it's kinda like a ladies dress shop trying to convince its customers they'd be better looking for pants. On a survey I conducted some time back about 70% of ET'ers were TA'ers. What happens when you convince your customer base they are in the wrong shop?
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