Why I Don't Believe in TA

Status
Not open for further replies.
Quote from marketsurfer:

You really need to start providing value or you are just going to be banned again. Don't say I didnt' warn you first.

surf
-----------------------------------------------------
That's a low blow Rosh.
Next thing he will ask you is when did you stop beating your wife.:D
 
Here's a bit of serious value add to this thread--- read this thread about Aronson's TA book:

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=79465&perpage=6&pagenumber=1

surf


Editorial Reviews

Book Description
Evidence-Based Technical Analysis is a breakthrough book in that it rigorously applies the scientific method and recently developed statistical tests to determine the true effectiveness of trading strategies, rules or systems discovered by data mining. Traditional technical analysis – as currently practiced – is more like a faith-based folk art than a science, the author asserts. These subjective interpretive methods cannot be back-tested or evaluated, yet many believe that they are effective. The author explains that because of various cognitive biases and illusions, such as hindsight bias, illusory correlations, etc., people often adopt beliefs that are unsupported by evidence or even contradicted by evidence. For example, the famous head and shoulders pattern – a cornerstone of traditional TA when tested objectively – has been shown to have no predictive power. Yet many TA texts and most TA experts believe in the pattern’s efficacy. To move technical analysis forward, the author proposes a new type of technical analysis, which he calls: evidence-based technical analysis or EBTA. Unlike traditional technical analysis, EBTA is restricted to objective methods whose historical profitability can be quantified and then rigorously scrutinized. The author provides a new statistical methodology specifically designed for evaluating the performance of rules that are discovered by data mining, a process in which many rules are back-tested and the best performing rule(s) is selected. Experimental results presented in the book show that data mining is an effective approach for discovering useful rules. However, the historical performance of the best rule (s) is upwardly biased - a combined effect of randomness and data mining. Thus new statistical tests are needed to make reasonable inferences about the future profitability of rules discovered by data mining. Most importantly, in a data mining case study the author evaluates more than 6,400 signaling rules applied to the S&P500 Index using these new tests. For technical analysts and traders, the book is a wake-up call to abandon subjective, interpretive methods and embrace an approach that is scientifically and statistically valid. For other traders, the rigorous testing of trading signals/rules may make their data mining efforts more productive and stimulate the development of new systems, signaling rules.
 
Quote from Daring:

Agree, that was hilarious.
More...

I agree. The stock though did gap up like he said it was going to the next day. I believe he said it would gap up 490 495. The follow through did not happen.

There was another prediction he made that the stock was going to bounce because the stock never had three red days in a row without rebounding the next. I swear i was short the next day(the day he said the stock was going to bounce). The stock was consolidating and the third day it broke the four day resistance level. I went short at 452.00 covered 443.00 the day it was supposed to bounce. Yes it was a soley based T/A trade. I will say the stock did bounce the following day has been running since. Fortunate to initiate a long position with som 465.00 calls after the stock broke the same consolidation range to the upside and have taken profits on half the position to ensure a break even trade at worst. I think i got lucky ha ha!
 
Well, then you've just contradicted yourself, captain! You have 692 pages of posts at 25 per page.....that's 17,300 posts not 4093 as it shows. Clearly something happened with the counter. It's not showing all your posts. Must be a glitch or something.

So, please, don't use the 1.03 posts per day because that's not accurate. Try being accurate in your arguments.

Quote from marketsurfer:

Huh? the records go back to 2002. Not one post was deleted, stop making up stuff, capt,

marketsurfer Total Posts: 4089 (1.03 posts per day)

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/searc...hid=4245218&sortby=&sortorder=&pagenumber=692
More...
 
Quote from R. Raskolnikov:

Well, then you've just contradicted yourself, captain! You have 692 pages of posts at 25 per page.....that's 17,300 posts not 4093 as it shows. Clearly something happened with the counter. It's not showing all your posts. Must be a glitch or something.

So, please, don't use the 1.03 posts per day because that's not accurate. Try being accurate in your arguments.
More...

Whatever, I just go by the counter, if you want to apply voodoo math be my guest.

The question still remains why you never add value and only exist to harass others? i think that's called a TROLL in internet talk/

surf
 
Actually, we've had many restaurant discussions where we added value for each other. You thanked me, and I thanked you.

I went to BLT Prime last night, I'd give the steak a 7.5/10. Good but not great

Quote from marketsurfer:


The question still remains why you never add value and only exist to harass others? i think that's called a TROLL in internet talk/

surf
More...
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back
Top