Why I Don't Believe in TA

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Quote from marketsurfer:

I believe in what I call Price Drivers. Price Drivers are what moves prior to price moving, they are what move the price. Price is the effect, not the cause. TA erroneously studies the effect, rather than the cause. hope this makes sense! surf
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So in essence, lately, you are saying --- as an example: buy the dip works right now (esp. in nasdaq futures) because shorts funds of an appreciable size are attempting almost every day to be an position for an imminent crash (as its been a lagging market, for whatever reasons, a la maybe smartphone boom is tailing off) but are finding after the dip there's too much buying support (driven by general economic optimism), so inevitably are forced to cover ? (and the reason they are shorting in the first place: this dynamic positioning has an optionality with limited costs to funds right now in the environment where perceived growth is kind of meager and thus the multiple (inverse of risk premium) has limited risk of rapid expansion. If I put on huge size in shorting an upspike to drive price down 2%, I can flip it just as quickly if its not working to get momentum amongst other participants...)

Nothing to do with price levels, but understanding the dynamics of the market participants given the backdrop -- right? (and whether my explanation is right isn't the point -- if my explanation is wrong and I am misunderstanding the dynamic, then I'll lose in the long run).

I buy that.

Pure TA is for two crowds -- 1) those without a bare semblance of stats understanding or ability to actually test their ideas with rigour and 2) those that somehow believe dynamic neural net type self training AI systems can sniff out what I explained above, numerically. I think it might be able to work for group #2, but for group #1 its just a source of commissions for the brokerage industry...

I loved watching DeMark's epic fail on calling the AAPL bottom at ~490 .. his call worked for one day though because everyone believed him.
 
Quote from scriabinop23:



I loved watching DeMark's epic fail on calling the AAPL bottom at ~490 .. his call worked for one day though because everyone believed him.
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Agree, that was hilarious.
 
Quote from marketsurfer:

I believe in what I call Price Drivers. Price Drivers are what moves prior to price moving, they are what move the price. Price is the effect, not the cause. TA erroneously studies the effect, rather than the cause. hope this makes sense! surf
More...

Imagine having Ninjatrader 30 years ago.Wouldn't you have been ahead of the herd?
 
Here we go again. He got his ass kicked on the last thread and he liked it so much that he's now become a masochist. Hows about a golden shower surf.
 
Quote from scriabinop23:

So in essence, lately, you are saying --- as an example: buy the dip works right now (esp. in nasdaq futures) because shorts funds of an appreciable size are attempting almost every day to be an position for an imminent crash (as its been a lagging market, for whatever reasons, a la maybe smartphone boom is tailing off) but are finding after the dip there's too much buying support (driven by general economic optimism), so inevitably are forced to cover ? (and the reason they are shorting in the first place: this dynamic positioning has an optionality with limited costs to funds right now in the environment where perceived growth is kind of meager and thus the multiple (inverse of risk premium) has limited risk of rapid expansion. If I put on huge size in shorting an upspike to drive price down 2%, I can flip it just as quickly if its not working to get momentum amongst other participants...)

Nothing to do with price levels, but understanding the dynamics of the market participants given the backdrop -- right? (and whether my explanation is right isn't the point -- if my explanation is wrong and I am misunderstanding the dynamic, then I'll lose in the long run).

I buy that.

Pure TA is for two crowds -- 1) those without a bare semblance of stats understanding or ability to actually test their ideas with rigour and 2) those that somehow believe dynamic neural net type self training AI systems can sniff out what I explained above, numerically. I think it might be able to work for group #2, but for group #1 its just a source of commissions for the brokerage industry...

I loved watching DeMark's epic fail on calling the AAPL bottom at ~490 .. his call worked for one day though because everyone believed him.
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Yes, for the most part. The markets have hold the most attraction for those who are least suited for them. The type that likes watching charts and making guesses. Its how it sustains itself.

LOL! I called out Demark here, a long time ago, http://www.marketsurfer.com/?s=demark
 
Quote from R. Raskolnikov:

What is most perplexing is that, you claim to have this amazing trading method (cracked the market code as you say) and yet you start a thread to bash another approach you do not agree with. Why not just be content that you have something that works? Why do you feel this need to continue to trash technical analysis? Wouldn't you want TA traders in the mkt to be on the other side of your trades?
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Why do you act like a little chihuahua nipping at my heels?

Believe whatever you want, this thread lays out my thoughts.

surf
 
Quote from TheMagican:

Imagine having Ninjatrader 30 years ago.Wouldn't you have been ahead of the herd?
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Using programs to analyse the book is one part of the short term Price Drivers system.

Basically, I looked at the obvious flaws of the way things are done with retail traders due to their overwhelming failure rate. Everyone uses TA, even FX dealers who win when you lose offer free TA courses and classes!, clearly there is something wrong with this picture. Then I realized that PRICE is the effect, studying the effect of a process makes no sense, one needs to study the cause, why price moves, as the effect is too late to act upon as it has already happened-- this lead to the design of the Price Drivers. surf
 
Quote from marketsurfer:

Using programs to analyse the book is one part of the short term Price Drivers system.
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So your vote for Quantitative Analysis,rather then TA?
 
Quote from TheMagican:

So your vote for Quantitative Analysis,rather then TA?
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Well, i use quantitative analysis of the price drivers, not price itself. Also we quantify the book, pre trade, rather than post trade as one aspect of the PD system. what we do is similar to this retail product www.jigsawtrading.com --- so you can get an idea what i am talking about without me revealing too much about this aspect of the Price Drivers surf

PS-- read that site about charts and price action-- it really provides a good explanation of what I mean.
 
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