Why has the turtle trend-following system stop working?

Visaria said:
No they don't. Pls stop bullshitting us traders (i know you don't trade).
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Let's see the data to back your views. No more whines or misinformation. Just show the data.
 
since you are the self appointed guru of turtle trading, why don't you explain why the turtle system works/doesn't work and why there are so many 50%+ drawdowns?
 
Visaria said:
btw, if anyone wants the turtle rules, just pm me...i cant post link here since covel will ask baron to remove it.
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Stop being a fool. The rules are well know.

Show how big returns are made over long times without some large drawdowns.

Show the data.
 
Visaria said:
since you are the self appointed guru of turtle trading, why don't you explain why the turtle system works/doesn't work and why there are so many 50%+ drawdowns?
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For those that want more information about trend following my podcast is free. It covers these issues plus many more. Conversations with some of the best traders of the last 40 years. Still further, for those that want the nitty gritty on the turtle story my book The Complete TurtleTrader from years back is the only source that covers the good and the bad.
 
If Warren Buffett has a 50%+ drawdown, no change in lifestyle. For most other people, a 50%+ drawdown could mean a serious problem.

The other problem with long term trend following is that the returns are not much for all that drawdown. Very similar to buying and holding the S&P500 (i don't like making comparisons to the S&P500, but since everyone else does it...).

In short, stay away from long term trend following.
 
Visaria said:
If Warren Buffett has a 50%+ drawdown, no change in lifestyle. For most other people, a 50%+ drawdown could mean a serious problem.

The other problem with long term trend following is that the returns are not much for all that drawdown. Very similar to buying and holding the S&P500 (i don't like making comparisons to the S&P500, but since everyone else does it...).

In short, stay away from long term trend following.
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Again, what strategy gives you high return with low drawdown over decades? And when you name it, data please.

Note: Posted before but good explanation from Chris Clarke about why high drawdown is useful.
 
Trend following always gets the scarlet letter of "drawdown = bad" stitched to its chest, but buy hold strategies that deliver -30%, -50% or even -77% (Shanghai, S&P, Nikkei, Nasdaq) are accepted as normal. Then additionally when other traders talk of long term high performance/low drawdown, the evidence doesn't arrive.
 
Why go through all the huge effort of long term trend trading if all you are going to achieve is sub s&p500 performance with identical drawdowns? Can you explain this?
 
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