Why has the turtle trend-following system stop working?

[Macca1]

Unrelated to the dead end of the Faith story, some recent podcast interviews with Turtles trading today on my show:

http://trendfollowingradio.com/ep-3...w-with-michael-covel-on-trend-following-radio

http://trendfollowingradio.com/ep-3...4-with-michael-covel-on-trend-following-radio

http://trendfollowingradio.com/ep-3...w-with-michael-covel-on-trend-following-radio

Here's another recent interview with Jerry Parker

http://bettersystemtrader.com/017-jerry-parker/

 

[wwatson1]

The fact that it's called the turtle system say's it all

 

[Trend Following]

The fact that it's called the turtle system say's it all

One of the most successful traders of 20th century taught a group to trade and many of them have gone on to have decades long successful careers. He nicknamed his students the turtles. If you think the name is whatever, who is to disagree. But what that name stands for is generally known to be the approach taught and the success derived from it. You see that as positive I assume.

 

[Trend Following]

Here's another recent interview with Jerry Parker

http://bettersystemtrader.com/017-jerry-parker/

Jerry is wise.

 

[kut2k2]

The fact that it's called the turtle system say's it all

The name has nothing to do with the system, it refers to the students. The bet between Dennis and Eckhardt was whether ordinary people could become successful traders. Dennis was pro, Eckhardt was con. Dennis said that his "ordinary" students (actually carefully screened applicants) were going to be trained like turtles were raised en mass in certain Asian farms. So the selected students became the Turtles.

 

[wwatson1]

Still a crap name though, and so is the trading system

 

[Trend Following]

Still a crap name though, and so is the trading system

What and how did you test?

 

[Visaria]

The drawdowns are horrendous for long term trend following systems. Don't go near them!

 

[Trend Following]

The drawdowns are horrendous for long term trend following systems. Don't go near them!

Chris Clarke has good insight on this podcast ep. for those that scream "drawdown" when discussing trend following:

http://trendfollowingradio.com/ep-2...w-with-michael-covel-on-trend-following-radio

Also, drawdown goes far beyond trend following. Consider an excerpt from PragCap:

Another way to illustrate this is if you look at something like Berkshire Hathaway. BRK has gone down 50% three times in the past (or maybe more). Once in the early 1970′s, once in 1999 and then again during the recent crisis. Of all the investors who owned BRK in 1970, how many have done better than the 20% or so return of the stock over the years by getting in and out of it in order to avoid the 50% drawdowns?

Big returns over time come with big drawdowns.

Buffett has also said himself:

"Unless you can watch your stock holding decline by 50% without becoming panic-stricken, you should not be in the stock market."

No wisdom there.

 

[Visaria]

Big returns over time come with big drawdowns.

No they don't. Pls stop bullshitting us traders (i know you don't trade).