Why Gold has to go down...

This from HSBC FX strategy:
The Gold Swan is the New Black Swan

The market has reconsidered the position of the yen as THE safe haven currency given the awful Japanese GDP data (-13%pa). Without the will to purchase the yen, fear money has been squeezed into the dollar, gold and the CHF. Buying the CHF is an act of desperation as it is tarnished by financial problems - CHF strength will not be welcomed by the SNB. The US is now a whisker away from full blown quantitative easing, printing one set of paper (treasuries) and swapping that with another set of printed paper (money). As the safe havens disappear one at time it squeezes more and more fear money into Gold. Eventually we believe the USD’s will lose its safe haven status, if we are correct that will mean all roads lead to gold.

(Disclaimer: I'm talking my book, as I am long).
 
Its one thing to be a contrarian.

Its another to stand ahead of an onrushing train.

Gold should be a lot lower already. But it isn't. It should have corrected. But last time it did it was bid up quickly. Didn't hit much resistance at the top of the channel & blew thru.

Facts have changed. Don't fight them. I'm back in at the highs. So be it.

Full disclosure : Long GLD , long GLD puts
 
Quote from drsteph:

Facts have changed. Don't fight them. I'm back in at the highs. So be it.

Full disclosure : Long GLD , long GLD puts
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Back in at the highs? Well, that's quite contrarian in and of itself; usually, traders like to buy low and sell high. :D

Seriously though, you might be okay riding this thing a few points, but the money you make along the way will be erased when your puts expire worthless. Similarly, your put profit (if any) will take a big hit, when the underlying finally corrects (and it will). You should have written covered calls, instead.
 
Quote from Subdude:

They don't necessarily have to flood the world with new dollars, as the only solution. There's always the option of selling more debt (who says hope is priceless?). If there is a combination of both measures in place, then inflation effects of quantitative easing will be mitigated by the sustained demand for $ as a result of continued treasury purchases.
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Well, yeah, I mean who wouldn't a buyer of US govt debt right now, it's quite a deal. And I guess the TARP and economic stimulus are revolutionary, cause none of those funds will cause any inflation. I wonder what Zimbabwe is doing wrong.

So you got any gold or silver to sell?
 
I smell a rat.
As I said before, I am long the physical and short the paper.
Bought more June puts today..

Goldman and other US Ibanks will need to blast their huge gold length over the next few months to cover their enormous margin calls. Watch the price fall from the sky, by a hundred dollars a day, for several days, coming soon to a screen near you.

I could be wrong of course, and will pay the price if I am (on the paper).
 
Quote from Anaconda:

Well, yeah, I mean who wouldn't a buyer of US govt debt right now, it's quite a deal. And I guess the TARP and economic stimulus are revolutionary, cause none of those funds will cause any inflation. I wonder what Zimbabwe is doing wrong.

So you got any gold or silver to sell?
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Hmm, you are comparing the U.S. to Zimbabwe? Name one occasion on which the government here defaulted on its debt. Once the precedent is established, we can certainly draw such parallels.

All things considered, treasuries are still a safer place for a risk-averse investor than gold. And yes, I will be adding to my short pretty soon.
 
Gold tied its July high today (well within a point, depending on how your continuous contract is). This is a key point. Should be resistance. Gold has had an incredible run up, I doubt it'll make it through the resistance on the first try so I'm looking for a pullback here.
 
Quote from Subdude:

Hmm, you are comparing the U.S. to Zimbabwe? Name one occasion on which the government here defaulted on its debt. Once the precedent is established, we can certainly draw such parallels.

All things considered, treasuries are still a safer place for a risk-averse investor than gold. And yes, I will be adding to my short pretty soon.
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The parallel issues are inflation. Zimababwe is a recent case were reckless printing of money caused inflation to rocket. There are other parallels like in Germany, Argentina etc. Now in the US inflation will jump once all this printed money(non-production related) hits the street in 6 to 9 months.

So Gold will continue to rocket - only producers will be sellers to cover production costs/profits - even producer selling will not be enough to check the mega bull run on the way.
 
Quote from Shagi:

The parallel issues are inflation. Zimababwe is a recent case were reckless printing of money caused inflation to rocket. There are other parallels like in Germany, Argentina etc. Now in the US inflation will jump once all this printed money(non-production related) hits the street in 6 to 9 months.

So Gold will continue to rocket - only producers will be sellers to cover production costs/profits - even producer selling will not be enough to check the mega bull run on the way.
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First off, Zimbabwe is a toilet even for an African country, always was and probably always will be, as long as it is run by a dipshit dictator who is not accountable to anyone. If we all agree on this point, perhaps we should stop discussing it in the the context of this thread.

Second, in order for inflation to materialize and become a threat in the U.S., several things must happen:
  • a shift in energy supply/demand
  • banks start lending with reckless abandon like they used to
  • unemployment rate drop
  • non-negative GDP growth q/q
  • asset prices appreciation (homes, durable goods etc)
These would be fairly major developments, indicative of sustained economic recovery. As you might imagine, we are not quite there yet, and 6 to 9 months will not make a tremendous difference. However, if you plan on keeping your paper gold for 5 years, you might just do okay. I would not load up even long-term at these bubble levels, though. Just my $0.02.
 
Quote from Subdude:

First off, Zimbabwe is a toilet even for an African country, always was and probably always will be,
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Wrong, Zimbabwe was Africa's breadbasket.

Untill... The Blacks took power.

Sounds familiar?:D

Just kidding, but still, no, Zimbabwe wasnt always a basketcase far from it.

Same with Weimar Germany.

Before they had hyperinflation they were the hotspot of the world.

All free thinkers, artists, writers and others came to Germany early 20's last century I guess only to leave just as fast but anyway...

Just saying, monetary collapses dont only happen to banana republics as history shows us I would say.:)
 
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