Why Gold has to go down...

Quote from Pa(b)st Prime:


One last observation: A good friend said something perceptive just yesterday. You hear of NO ONE saying "I'm shorting crude at $43" even though selling energy upticks has worked- yet traders want to short any market that's actually bullish. Little wonder why so many traders lose......
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Good point. I think this comes from the trader ideology that 'contrarian' equals free money
 
Quote from Daal:

Good point. I think this comes from the trader ideology that 'contrarian' equals free money
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Did any of you read any of the analysis that we posted in the Gold's Action forum? There are three of them.

it's not a question of just being contrarian and shorting gold. It's a question of studying all information available including the charts. The bearish divergences on the chart tell me that gold will have a pullback. As I stated in my analysis (see link above) the last few times we've had the same situation (RSI on the verge of being oversold, bearish divergence) gold went down 100-200 pts.
 
Quote from Kevmeister:

If all the doom and gloomers have their day, the dollar becomes worthless and the world goes back to the caveman ages then my can of chicken noodle soup, pack of vegetable seeds, bottled water, gun and ammo will be worth much more than your 10,000 ounces of gold.
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BTW, there are much better foods to hold for long term needs than chicken noodle soup!!!
ENJOY......... http://www.efoodsdirect.com/?aid=13


Oh.....and make DAMN SURE your vegtable seeds are NON-GMO!!!

http://www.survivalistseeds.com/

http://survivalseedbank.com/

:eek: :p :eek:

Your Welcome! :cool:
 
Quote from cunparis:

As I stated in my analysis (see link above) the last few times we've had the same situation (RSI on the verge of being oversold, bearish divergence) gold went down 100-200 pts.
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Is that a promise? Should I follow your analysis and go short GC or GLD?

Tell me fast, I'm eager to pull the trigger mate...
 
Quote from jimbojim:

Is that a promise? Should I follow your analysis and go short GC or GLD?

Tell me fast, I'm eager to pull the trigger mate...
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THERE IS RISK OF LOSS IN FUTURES TRADING. Those using this information are responsible for their own actions.
 
Quote from zboy2854A:

Assume your leverage or cash at risk is equal for both trades in this example. If you short the dollar and it loses 50%, you've made a 50% profit. If gold doubles, you've made a 100% profit.
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What asset classes are you talking about here? In FX, a 100:1 leverage will earn you 100% of your investment on any move of 1%, long or short. In futures, you can't have that high a leverage, but the logic is similar. No need to let your hair go gray waiting for 50% decline, or gold doubling in price.
 
My analysis is also short gold....the gold/oil ratio and the silver/gold ratio is way, way out of wack.....reversion to the mean is what comes next.
 
Quote from sumosam:

My analysis is also short gold....the gold/oil ratio and the silver/gold ratio is way, way out of wack.....reversion to the mean is what comes next.
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Disagree. It's the factor decomposition of the assets in the asset-pricing models that count here.

Silver and oil probably have heavier industrial components than gold and less of a safe-haven component, so the ratio is supposed to go out of wack. Anyone pricing this based on the decomposition of factors and fundamental models knows that gold is worth more. Mean reversion may happen with regard to one factor, but not all factors.

I hate to antagonize people, so don't take this personally: you shorts are going to lose your shirts on gold. I'll revisit my assessment if I see in dramatic shifts coming out of the factor decompositions.
 
A lot could happen to derail the current ST trend. But IF it continues, based on the weekly chart, I won't be surprised to see GC around 1080.
 
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