Why financial market is so difficult to analyse/ decipher?

[OddTrader]

Why financial market is so difficult to decipher?

A theory {cf: Jack Hershey http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jack_hershey } can be produced, but can we prove it?

Even if we can, it took 90 years to prove a theory by Einstein { Albert Einstein (14 March 1879 – 18 April 1955) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Albert_Einstein } whether his theory is right or wrong.

Gravity Probe - was Einstein right about gravity? - Nature’s answer to radioactive waste
http://www.abc.net.au/catalyst/stories/2589696.htm

On April 20, 2004, a small spacecraft set out on a giant quest… to answer one of the fundamental questions of our universe. This is the extraordinary Gravity Probe B mission. Beset by funding cancellations, fire and failure - it’s the longest single experiment ever conducted by NASA.

 

[Unit001]

financial market is NOT hard to decipher

but you gotta be one of those people who had parents that actually cared and put you in good private school

where you developed analytical mind

otherwise my friend..... you are F%$KED

 

[intradaybill]

Quote from OddTrader:

Why financial market is so difficult to decipher?

A theory {cf: Jack Hershey http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jack_hershey } can be produced, but can we prove it?

Even if we can, it took 90 years to prove a theory by Einstein { Albert Einstein (14 March 1879 – 18 April 1955) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Albert_Einstein } whether his theory is right or wrong.

Gravity Probe - was Einstein right about gravity? - Nature’s answer to radioactive waste
http://www.abc.net.au/catalyst/stories/2589696.htm

On April 20, 2004, a small spacecraft set out on a giant quest… to answer one of the fundamental questions of our universe. This is the extraordinary Gravity Probe B mission. Beset by funding cancellations, fire and failure - it’s the longest single experiment ever conducted by NASA.

Theories cannot be proved. They can be only corroborated by experimentation. Pessimistic meta-inducation claims that each and every theory will sooner than later be falsified:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pessimistic_induction

In a similar way, every trading system will fail sooner or later.

 

[OddTrader]

Here is another theory "Black Swan" that has been very popular in our investment/ trading world.

Even If this theory can be proved and predicted, as claimed. But can anyone design a reliable system to make any good profit from this theory???

Looks like Taebl himself can't!
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=163699

How Mr. Taleb Got Utterly Fooled by Randomness
http://www.lewrockwell.com/north/north516.html

"Why is Taleb so impressed with Einstein and Keynes? Because they were advocates of a theory of the universe to which Taleb is deeply committed: "The universe is at bottom random." Einstein supplied evidence for this belief in his third paper (out of five) in 1905: his essay on Brownian motion. He dismissed this essay years later as unimportant, but it is his paper most quoted today. Why? Because, as physicist Mark Haw writes, it laid a foundation for the modern view of the universe: "random fluctuations are fundamentally important in many, if not most, of the phenomena around us."

Keynes did the same in his Treatise on Probability.

Einstein refused to accept this idea when applied to quantum physics. "God does not play dice," he famously quipped. But Taleb, who does not argue for God’s existence, does argue for the existence of cosmic dice."

 

[OddTrader]

Quote from intradaybill:

Theories cannot be proved. They can be only corroborated by experimentation. Pessimistic meta-inducation claims that each and every theory will sooner than later be falsified:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pessimistic_induction

In a similar way, every trading system will fail sooner or later.

1. Are there any well known theories for trading that cannot be proved Yet?

2. imo: Failure of a(ll) trading system(s) may not be a valid proof of their trading theories!?

 

[pupu]

Markets move on perceptions and emotions, where government and the media plays a vital role. You need to understand things like psychology and marketing before fundamentals.
consider some of what we witnessed in the following short period alone:

N. Korea threatens nuclear war.
Swine pandemic announced.
Air France goes down in the ocean, probably due to a terrorist plot.
Economic indicators are as bad as you can get.

Yet the markets rally to infinity and beyond!

 

[MarkBrown]

Quote from Unit001:but you gotta be one of those people who had parents that actually cared and put you in good private school

where you developed analytical mind

wonder why you say this? i figured my parents put me in ps to torture me. im 53 and still have troubled thoughts about school.

i can see where it messed me up in a good way to make money but i have virtually no people skills. m

 

[Johno]

Quote from pupu:

Markets move on perceptions and emotions, where government and the media plays a vital role. You need to understand things like psychology and marketing before fundamentals.
consider some of what we witnessed in the following short period alone:

N. Korea threatens nuclear war.
Swine pandemic announced.
Air France goes down in the ocean, probably due to a terrorist plot.
Economic indicators are as bad as you can get.

Yet the markets rally to infinity and beyond!

And obviously we are all long! So who say's that financial markets are difficult to analyse/ Deciper?

Regards

Johno

 

[vilas]

Financial markets are not harder to decipher than any other markets as long as you keep in mind that markets exist because of difference of opinion ! Most traders who see what is in front of their noses - the Monitor - do not lose. The losers are generally out of step from the markets - marching to the imaginary tune playing inside their heads.

 

[Johno]

Quote from vilas:

Financial markets are not harder to decipher than any other markets as long as you keep in mind that markets exist because of difference of opinion ! Most traders who see what is in front of their noses - the Monitor - do not lose. The losers are generally out of step from the markets - marching to the imaginary tune playing inside their heads.

You can have your head in front of a monitor all day and consistantly lose. All you need is to develop a good understanding of market action ( to be honest I could never do it using charts or indicators, but once I developed an understanding of the market action I can see exactly where many of the flaws are in charts and indicators.) and, develop a low risk high reward technique for milking the opportunities.

It's actually very simple, but many people manage to make it so complex that it becomes incomprehensible.

Good luck in the quest

Johno