Why 'Fade Every Rally' works...

KCalhoun said:
Patterns repeat. Like dumbass talking heads saying booyah the bottom's here, an oscillator says. Lol

I fade every rally all year by buying inverses SQQQ etc because it works.

Market is going to crash soon. OPEC oil restrictions one more nail in coffin. Patterns repeat. :D
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You are trading "with the market's bias"... as you should.

Last year the market's bias was to the upside.. and BTFD was the correct strategy. Not now.
 
I remember I used to listen to these stock market podcasts where they interviewed different traders and what not. It has been a long time, but one guy they interviewed said the S&P was extremely "reversionary" - not sure if that is the right word - but he was saying that it tended to revert to the mean and that you would make more money fading rallies and buying dips then trying to do the reverse and follow strength. Not sure if that has ever been tested.
 
SoyUnGanador said:
I remember I used to listen to these stock market podcasts where they interviewed different traders and what not. It has been a long time, but one guy they interviewed said the S&P was extremely "reversionary" - not sure if that is the right word - but he was saying that it tended to revert to the mean and that you would make more money fading rallies and buying dips then trying to do the reverse and follow strength. Not sure if that has ever been tested.
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The problem with betting on "reversion to the mean" is that you never know when it's going to start, so hard to strategize while controlling risk. That, and the market can remain "extended without reversion" longer than investors can remain solvent.

I would never bet/play that an issue "will revert to the mean" while it's on the move... but rather recognize the technical reversal and expect it will likely stop/pause at the mean... at least temporarily.
 
MacBookProHo said:
So you're saying....the market will fall....all the way, until, to March 2023....similar to March 2009, and March 2020 and March 2000?
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He is saying that one day the market will be down 10-15% or more. If not its really not a crash.
 
KCalhoun said:
Patterns repeat.....Lol

I fade every rally all year by buying inverses SQQQ etc because it works.

Market is going to crash soon. OPEC oil restrictions one more nail in coffin. Patterns repeat. :D

Like the 3day dcb rollover
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%%
Mostly\ +some TQQQ in OCT\ +SPXS, sometimes SDS+ sh.
OPEC, they are known to cheat\
good\.....
Like a Judeo Christian lawyer said with a warning ''typical sellers contract''
Did buy some gas for my 4 cylinder @ MUR\ they're slow to raise prices.
New traders tend to trade to big+ blow up .
MACIntosh apples get dumped , cheap, this SEPT\OCT time of year usually:D:D
 
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