Why everyone is trying to find a top in crude

[makloda]

Quote from detective:
But a lot of speculators are trying to pick this top in crude

I think its the same in many assets, not just crude. People love the idea of being right and earning bragging rights instead of making money with lower risk. They're bottom picking and top picking everywhere and getting their heads handed to them.

 

[crgarcia]

Quote from makloda:

People love the idea of being right and earning bragging rights instead of making money with lower risk.

So, so true.

 

[AMT4SWA]

I took QM short entries at $147.25 and $147.75 (Sept contract) the other week, not trying to pick a top, but for the reason I had a strong signal in a higher probability environment (and good price channel positioning at entry for a high probability shot of at least catching a typical price pullback move).

Obviously there was also the fact that a break in price from the high $140's could also turn into a longer term macro play (as demand destruction pressures mixed with a EUR/USD unable to breakthrough the 1.6000 levels could cause a significant drop in crude prices).

The technical and fundamental risk to reward factors were not at all out of sync with attempts to sell the area above $145 imo.

 

[AMT4SWA]

Quote from Nickvac:

Some of the short positions may also be the result of the rapid influx of volume into the energy exchange in the past months. There may be too many speculators on the short side though the media would hardly ever try to perceive that notion.

There was a hefty short position accumulation in the trading of the CL above the $145 level. Price movement beyond the front month $145 area and those "net" short were showing a price to volume divergence that was significant......that last rush of volume opened the gates for LONG play exhaustion as we traded $146's (great additional confirmation to the price/volume (delta) divergence that was building as we traded above the $145 area).