why energy and mining stocks keep sinking for the past 2 months?

Butterball said:
The entire "buy commodities and hard assets" hype has been one giant sham.
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Some have an horizon that is far distant. What happens tomorrow or in the next few years is not much of a concern to them. ET is a forum for mostly rather short time horizon traders. Let us keep that in mind. Some will see these low commodity prices as a sign that it is time to accumulate. There is nothing new under the sun. We have been in a bull market for other than commodities. We are now at the very beginning of a protracted transition phase. Markets go down as well as up, but they mostly go up in nominal terms. We are now getting prepared for them to go down for awhile in nominal terms. The nominal ebbs and flows are extremely important from a psychological standpoint. What really matters though in the long run, but we hope before we are all dead, is what happens to our assets measured in buying power rather than nominal value. Does buying power go up, or does it go down.
 
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why the metal price is low? only because of the slow of China economy? I donot think so. yes, it is true that growth of China is slowing, but the demand is still there. It is not necessary to keep metal price sinking so low to ZERO!
 
piezoe said:
Some will see these low commodity prices as a sign that it is time to accumulate.
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True, but lets not forget people said that in 2010 when you'd read hyperinflation warnings everywhere and every idiot was touting hard assets as the place to be. That like always was horrific advice from "advisors" as inflation was a ghost they'd pull out of the closet all the time.

Now look at the performance of Jim Rogers commodity ETF since 2007, 2010, 2001? When he was on TV 24/7 talking about commodities and 18 year bull markets. From its launch in 2007 this thing is down 40%. Down 50% since 2011. Many commodity stocks cratered, gold miners have been poleaxed. Newmont + Barrick are wrecked down 70-80% from their 5 year highs.

All this "buy commodity futures and stocks to hedge against upcoming inflation" talk was another fine example of how sheep get deluded by hype.

P.S. I am building my hard asset positions now -- right now as the sheep get flushed out after a 5 year rout, when you haven't seen a commodity expert on CNBC in months, when idiotic Jim Rogers doesn't get headlines anymore. That's when you know it's time to get greedy.
 
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What we never know is the timing! We know that eventually inflation will return, certainly not, however, hyperinflation in the U.S., at least for the foreseeable future. Your analysis is spot on in my opinion, and you are placing the odds strongly in your favor. That's the most any of us can hope for. Those of us who may be accumulating commodities now must be prepared to wait, possibly a very long time. Therefore be selective and choose commodities that will pay handsome dividends while you wait. That's a very conservative outlook I realize, and it isn't at all to the liking of those who want quick profits.

PBR may be a special situation, one should consider. A 10-20% profit could come relatively quickly there, even though it has already risen some from the ashes. PBR is "too big to fail!"

I like how you think! I bought VLO and PSX sometime back when I realized falling petroleum prices would widen the crack spread. I've sold some at a nice profit, and retained some. Probably out completely before long.

We are all fallible. On average, those who recognize that do best over the long haul.
 
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good words! but it is hard to see all those oil and mining stocks sinking so much! like AKS, i really start to worry if it will go bankrupt or not. So yesterday i sold all the AKS and bought all the VALE, just believe VALE will not go bankrupt, just like PBR. I love PBR, gave me 100% profit as I bought at 5 US$. Any opinion?
 
That was a smart buy. Congratulations. VALE has been knocked down too and is also trading at very attractive prices. It too, pays a nice dividend. VALE is another company that is "too big to fail". Whether a company is too big to fail is not up to the company, but to the government, and therein lies risk. (Full disclosure: I own VALE and am trying to acquire PBR at 8.50 or lower.)
 
i think the best strategy for the energy and mining stocks portfolio is
1. decrease your exposure to the safe zone and prepare for holding for a long time
2. choose the most safe stocks and with some risky ones for a good lucky reword

Above is for those already had the portfolio and thinking how to handle it now. I donot recommend to clean all the portfolio ,as you donot know when it will rebound, and it can rebound quickly and largely. So you will miss it.

For those donot have the portfolio, my advice is not to hold it . laugh
 
another advise is if the stocks rebound, donot add more. just keep them and let them to carry you to the home run. Donot add more, it will destroy you.
 
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