Quote from oldtime:
well, first of all, it was a joke, if you are taking war with Germany and Greece seriously, I seriously doubt your ability to read the market, or for that matter to even design an auto trade system.
But yes, the real deal is Italy, and if you trade currencies, the general consensus is, the EUR must go to parity, otherwise, it will be just too advantageous for Italy to drop out.
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Your post makes sense. But war is going on now. The Germans have launched a full scale attack on Greece because it is the only EU country that fought against them in WWII. Just think of it: France surrendered immediately, they pretended they were under attack and only England and Greece continuoued to fight against the Nazis. The Germans were delayed in the battle of the island of Crete and had many causalties. That delayed the invasion of Russia and the winter caught up with them. Greek army escaped to Middle East and fought with the English against Germans trying to get the oil.
Biggest mistake then of Germany to attack Greece. Biggest mistake of Germany now to attack Greece again. Germany is about to lose. If euro goes down, unemployment in Germany will hit 20% in 5 years. Best way out of this for Germany is to concede to massive issues of Eurobonds. Otherwise, it is the end of Germany as we know it. Most Germans are not Nazis and do not deserve this. They are just hard working people. The political game going on over there is hurting them.