Why does TA not work (for you)?

[traderchi128]

Quote from logic_man:

I've only been trading CL for about 4 months now, but I've never had a stop limit order fail and it's basically the only type of order I use. I also submit my orders far in advance of the actual trade, as much as possible, so I probably have some priority among the limit orders.

Also, I adhere to the idea that there is always another trade coming down the pike, I just don't know the exact time of its arrival. Missing any single trade, while it can suck, just isn't a big deal when I forecast that I will make hundreds of trades over the coming year. If I miss out on a dozen of them or so, I can deal with that.

It does move quickly when it wants to, though.

You think CL moves fast?

Trade Heating Oil or RBOB Gas. Those make crude seem like it's trading in slow motion.

 

[traderchi128]

Quote from hoodooman:

I think it would be great to start a thread about stop loss orders. I only placed two many years ago and they both failed. Be nice to see how it works now. been thinking about it lately but just haven't got the nerve to do it yet.

Do you trade Futures?

 

[NoDoji]

Quote from hoodooman:

I think it would be great to start a thread about stop loss orders. I only placed two many years ago and they both failed.

Failed?

You mean they failed to stop a loss?

 

[logic_man]

Quote from traderchi128:

I could be wrong, but don't stop limit orders sit "off the order book" before they are initiated? I know when I put in a stop limit on TT, it shows as "0" size on the order book. I always thought that once the price is traded it then hits the order book as a limit order (at that point the order hits the market showing what the actual size is and goes to execute at that price or better). So.......you really can't get any priority in the que/at the price in the order book because your order doesn't "hit" the market until that stop price is hit.

I could be wrong, but if I'm right it wouldn't really be an advantage to place stop limit orders early. Limit orders, definitely, but not stop limits.

No, you are right. I'd go back and edit that out if I could because that was just a brain fart on my account.

 

[masterm1ne]

Quote from TheBlackHand:

All markets are controlled by a small number of major players.

This is one reason why TA will not work.

Pls explain why you wouldn't be able to win if you could figure out what these major players do and then piggy back their trades?

Nevermind, don't explain.

 

[marketsurfer]

Quote from masterm1ne:

Pls explain why you wouldn't be able to win if you could figure out what these major players do and then piggy back their trades?

Nevermind, don't explain.

Clearly, you would win. Unless you have moles in their operations, YOU HAVE NO IDEA when "they" will buy or sell..... But you can try to figure out like we have with one of the inputs into the Price Driver program....

 

[logic_man]

Quote from masterm1ne:

Pls explain why you wouldn't be able to win if you could figure out what these major players do and then piggy back their trades?

Nevermind, don't explain.

It does seem like some of these anti-even-the-possibility-of-working-TA posts assume there are only two classes of traders:

1. Extreme "insiders" who control the markets and make a ton of money

2. Everyone else

Talk about simplistic.

I have worked out a price action system where I am what I think of as "the smartest dumb money". I never try to catch an exact top or bottom and it works just fine. I hit a lot of singles and doubles and the occasional home run and I rarely strike out (my winning percentages are typically in the mid-60% range) and my average win is nearly twice the size of my average loss.

So I totally agree with you that this type of trading is viable and can be done just by watching the tape and price movements.

 

[NoDoji]

Quote from masterm1ne:

Pls explain why you wouldn't be able to win if you could figure out what these major players do and then piggy back their trades?

It's not that hard to figure out, either. PA/TA is the ultimate "inside" information. I know I've posted this before, but it bears repeating often:

The major players can't slink around trading behind everyone's back. They leave big footprints.

Learn to identify what it looks like when the herd of them starts moving to the next watering hole and catch yourself a free ride.

These birds are sometimes referred to as "tick pickers"

 

[traderchi128]

Quote from logic_man:

No, you are right. I'd go back and edit that out if I could because that was just a brain fart on my account.

That's cool.........I just wanted to double check. I use stop limit orders to initiate positions. Never thought about priority because of the way the orders go in.

 

[logic_man]

Quote from traderchi128:

That's cool.........I just wanted to double check. I use stop limit orders to initiate positions. Never thought about priority because of the way the orders go in.

You know, I thought about it a little more and I think the time you enter it does matter for priority on your broker's server.

At least, when I enter an order, there flashes up a number and it is always the letter "N" and then a number following it, and the number is usually a number near the beginning of the positive integer series, i.e. 1,2,10,33 or something similar and the earlier I put in the order, the lower the number. I think that is your priority for being sent as a limit order to the exchange. From there, I guess it is just a race between your broker's ability to send limit orders and another guy's broker.