Why does TA not work (for you)?

[IeatGoldmanSnax]

Quote from marketsurfer:

Everyone's missing the point-- TA, by definition, is based on past price history/volume with the operative word PAST.

EDGE seeking strategies utilize data prior to it being converted into a trade ( the past once again by definition)-- data such as the book, intramarket real time analysis, arbitrage opportunities, Price Drivers, money flows are all part of data that has nothing to do with TA since it's not past price, or post trade information.

This is common knowledge--- i expect it to be well accepted by retail in about 2 years or so---

surf

In order for that to have a separate edge vs TA you have to maintain the assumption that think book, price drivers, and money flows are all random occurances? That's like that tail wagging the dog.

If you're going to say certain forms of chart analysis doesn't work you may as well say markets are efficient and be done with it.

 

[marketsurfer]

Quote from IeatGoldmanSnax:

In order for that to have a separate edge vs TA you have to maintain the assumption that think book, price drivers, and money flows are all random occurances? That's like that tail wagging the dog.

If you're going to say certain forms of chart analysis doesn't work you may as well say markets are efficient and be done with it.

Totally wrong and missing the point entirely. Obviously, book, price drivers, money flow and other edge creating data is RANDOM. However, once these things set up, how they effect price IS NOT RANDOM. I don't know what price driver is going to happen, but I do know once it happens, what the strong odds are of price direction.

TA is by nature LAGGING, IT IS WEAK. IT IS EASY, IT IS ATTRACTIVE on the surface- IT IS RANDOMNESS in the guise of structure---- IT MAKES GOOD trading books; However, by definition it is what has already happened therefore it is IMPOSSIBLE to have an edge. WHAT CAN BE EASIER TO UNDERSTAND?

 

[kut2k2]

Quote from marketsurfer:

I know the secret type claims are classic in the psuedoscience literature.

The premise that any past action, price, volume can increase the odds of a future move is the only premise that needs to be knocked down. Which it has numerous times.

What is being said above is ludicrous-- One knows astrology makes no sense without testing every combination of stars/alignments--- the same can be said for TA. Although, TA has been tested time and time again resulting in no edge or an edge that doesnt' even beat the vig in rare circumstances.

surf

Actually, surf, you're wrong again. Some known TA methods that have no edge today once did. IOW, they lost their edges thanks to disclosure ... one more reason not to share any working TA with you. As I recall, Granville's On Balance Volume (OBV) was hitting homeruns when it was first introduced. And we all know that Richard Dennis and his Turtles made millions via the now-exhausted(?) Donchian channel breakouts.

So you're not just wrong logically, you're wrong historically as well.

 

[marketsurfer]

Quote from kut2k2:

Actually, surf, you're wrong again. Many TA methods that have no edge today once did. IOW, they lost their edges thanks to disclosure ... one more reason not to share any working TA with you. As I recall, Granville's On Balance Volume (OBV) was hitting homeruns when it was first introduced. And we all know that Richard Dennis and his Turtles made millions via the now-exhausted(?) Donchian channel breakouts.

So you're not just wrong logically, you're wrong historically as well.

Hmmm, I disagree. How could disclosure make a break out any less effective? This is more misunderstanding of how markets really work. An example, a stock breaks out of channel, traders jump on board, by definition, the more buying pressure the higher the stock goes-- So how can numbers of users prevent TA from working? increased users of breakouts, for example, increase the momentum of the break out--- so I don't get what you are saying---
actually, I do--- you are simply repeating market myths.

 

[kut2k2]

Quote from marketsurfer:

Hmmm, I disagree. How could disclosure make a break out any less effective? This is more misunderstanding of how markets really work. An example, a stock breaks out of channel, traders jump on board, by definition, the more buying pressure the higher the stock goes-- So how can numbers of users prevent TA from working?

Simple: somebody has to take the other side of the bet. If everybody is trying to bet in the same direction, it's like everybody trying to bet on the same horse in a horserace: the odds go to hell.

Breakouts can still make money but nobody in today's markets can money like the turtles did. Gotta find a different method of signal generation, something that the crowd is still clueless about.

 

[NoDoji]

Quote from TheBlackHand:

And what do you do when your beloved MAE/MFE fall apart as volatility changes with the next cycle?

I imagine I will tweak my plan when that cycle commences. It's been rock solid for more than two years now.

Quote from TheBlackHand:

How about down trends and uptrends? Do they behave differently? Will an equity market fall quicker than it rises? How about FX markets? Do they fall more quickly than they rally?
How about STIR's? Commodities?

I trade up trends and down trends the same. Never traded FX, but have traded 6E (euro futures) and I traded it the same as CL (my main instrument), and I trade ES the same as well, though I trade more contracts of ES than CL or 6E. I also day trade equities using the same strategies and time frame (5m main/1m cross-ref), and I swing trade equities using the same strategies in a longer time frame (daily price bars).

Quote from TheBlackHand:

Elsewhere you claimed to trade ES on a 5min chart. So how has your method changed in the recent decline of volatility? Your FIXED method and implied targets derived from MFE must be shot to pieces.

I'm mainly an intraday scalper, so it doesn't matter to me whether price moves in a wide range, narrow range, strong trend, or weak trend. I have specific methods to scalp minimum targets and if the market picks up at times, I either get bigger profits or more scalps during the run.

Quote from TheBlackHand:

If making coin was that easy, everyone would be as rich as your post is clueless.

It's only easy once you master some well-tested methods. Some people learn to do this quickly (such as one guy whom I taught my methods in a couple weeks and he traded me under the table), some learn more slowly (such as me, stubborn ox), and some seem unable to connect the dots.

Quote from TheBlackHand:

Sorry if thats harsh, but its my truth.

I edited this line slightly for accuracy.

 

[Lucrum]

Quote from marketsurfer:

Ha, you had to bring that up! Perhaps the single worst call in the history of the gold market.

And more importantly it was a call made by YOU using your super duper double secret anti-TA.


http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=123557&highlight=gold

 

[wrbtrader]

Quote from NoDoji:

...I edited this line slightly for accuracy.

Please explain why you bother explaining information to that person involving your trading plan.

Don't feed the trolls with any information about how you approach your trading. Let them imagine what you have or don't have. Just keep responding...TA works or poke fun at their beliefs, theories but only share your trading plan with those that actually care.

Don't feed the trolls.

 

[R. Raskolnikov]

What numbers do you look at?

Quote from TheBlackHand:



By the numbers my friend, just the numbers. Across various different time horizons.

 

[TheBlackHand]

Quote from marketsurfer:

Everyone's missing the point-- TA, by definition, is based on past price history/volume with the operative word PAST.

EDGE seeking strategies utilize data prior to it being converted into a trade ( the past once again by definition)-- data such as the book, intramarket real time analysis, arbitrage opportunities, Price Drivers, money flows are all part of data that has nothing to do with TA since it's not past price, or post trade information.

This is common knowledge--- i expect it to be well accepted by retail in about 2 years or so---

surf

Thank you Surf.

Interesting to see how all the ignorant TA followers here try to belittle you after your honesty in what you do and why you do it.

The fact is, that you are honest. The rest of them all claim to be profitable, which we both know isnt true. The liars ridiculing the honest! At least you've figured out a way of making money out of the market either directly or indirectly, and you love doing it.

The liars want to make a living out of trading but never will as they follow the false idea of TA. They live in the past, not the now. What a sad place this is!!