Why does TA not work (for you)?

[luckyluciano]

Quote from marketsurfer:

The bottom line is TA does not increase the odds that any entry will be profitable in a consistent and quantifiable manner. Since it doesn't, what use does it serve? Attracting noobs is a function of TA with FX dealers. It's quite effective, apparently.

Blah, blah blah, blah blah.

So TA offer no edge?
Using the ITP.to chart I posted before, let the naysayers go short for the next 20 trading days and I'll go long. ( I already am )

I am willing to post chart after chart after chart using a trend as my sole edge. I will go with the trend and all the naysayers go against the trend for 20 days. Lets conduct our own real life proof. Since you are sure it's 50/50, I will pick the trending charts.

Do you agree to to the challenge? Should I bother with the effort of posing the charts? Will this work for you? It should be 50/50 after 20 days. Is 5 charts good? I believe I will be show a profit on 5/5, at least 4/5.

Oilfx, and others who claim no edge, what do you say. Let's make this fun.

( of course you are going to use some excuse like we need more than 5 charts. I say bullshit! You can't flip a coin five times and get a 4/5 heads if your life depended on it so stop with the excuses before you start )

 

[wrbtrader]

Quote from marketsurfer:

\\

post charts to prove TA doesn't work-- LOL !!

This is equivalent logic to a fundamentalist telling you to check the holy book to disprove itself. ridiculous.

I'm quoting someone...you do realize that considering its been clear by the threader starter since his very first post that's exactly what he was looking for.

To bad you didn't read his first post nor his other follow up messages where he mentioned the topic of the thread. Therefore, if his thread was ridiculous, why did you get involved with this thread considering the topic of the thread is clear.

Please prove that bad TA does not work. Regardless, I think bad TA needs to be defined by the thread starter unless I missed that message post by him. In my opinion, bad TA is any TA being used by itself as the only tool being used by the trader. Thus, no money management, no trading experience, no discipline, not properly capitalized, no proper trading equipment, no collaboration...no trading plan...nothing...just TA.

P.S. The thread starter did say in another post that maybe there should be another thread attempt that tries to stay on topic. I suggest you put his next attempt at the topic on ignore if you believe the topic is ridiculous.

 

[marketsurfer]

Quote from luckyluciano:

Blah, blah blah, blah blah.

So TA offer no edge?
Using the ITP.to chart I posted before, let the naysayers go short for the next 20 trading days and I'll go long. ( I already am )

I am willing to post chart after chart after chart using a trend as my sole edge. I will go with the trend and all the naysayers go against the trend for 20 days. Lets conduct our own real life proof. Since you are sure it's 50/50, I will pick the trending charts.

Do you agree to to the challenge? Should I bother with the effort of posing the charts? Will this work for you? It should be 50/50 after 20 days. Is 5 charts good? I believe I will be show a profit on 5/5, at least 4/5.

Oilfx, and others who claim no edge, what do you say. Let's make this fun.

( of course you are going to use some excuse like we need more than 5 charts. I say bullshit! You can't flip a coin five times and get a 4/5 heads if your life depended on it so stop with the excuses before you start )

Millions of transactions, over the history of the market, have been studied. There is no quantifiable edge to TA. Like it or not.

surf

 

[luckyluciano]

Very revealing......

I challenge you again....


08-19-12 11:48 AM

Quote from marketsurfer:

The bottom line is TA does not increase the odds that any entry will be profitable in a consistent and quantifiable manner. Since it doesn't, what use does it serve? Attracting noobs is a function of TA with FX dealers. It's quite effective, apparently.



Blah, blah blah, blah blah.

So TA offer no edge?
Using the ITP.to chart I posted before, let the naysayers go short for the next 20 trading days and I'll go long. ( I already am )

I am willing to post chart after chart after chart using a trend as my sole edge. I will go with the trend and all the naysayers go against the trend for 20 days. Lets conduct our own real life proof. Since you are sure it's 50/50, I will pick the trending charts.

Do you agree to to the challenge? Should I bother with the effort of posing the charts? Will this work for you? It should be 50/50 after 20 days. Is 5 charts good? I believe I will be show a profit on 5/5, at least 4/5.

Oilfx, and others who claim no edge, what do you say. Let's make this fun.

( of course you are going to use some excuse like we need more than 5 charts. I say bullshit! You can't flip a coin five times and get a 4/5 heads if your life depended on it so stop with the excuses before you start )

 

[Xspurt]

Quote from marketsurfer:

Millions of transactions, over the history of the market, have been studied. There is no quantifiable edge to TA. Like it or not.

surf

Sounds like you can't lose this one Surf

 

[marketsurfer]

Quote from Xspurt:

Sounds like you can't lose this one Surf

No offense to lucky, he seems like a very cool dude--- but personal antidotes, success or failure do nothing to "prove" or "disprove" TA.

That can only be done in rigorous studies that have been already been done-- there is no new way to crunch price to up the odds that your entry will be a winner. Now, taking other factors into consideration like price drivers, intramarket analysis, etc--- its another story-- if done correctly.

surf

 

[TheBlackHand]

Quote from Xspurt:



As soon as an industrialist talks about future trends he is using a form of analysis. You can represent that trend on a graph and as soon as you do so you can call that moving average or critical path by whatever name you like. You can see it whatever way you want but that analyst and I will both point to momentum driving the market in a trend.

But is the industrialist using TA? Of course not. He may be using a chart to show his sales figures, but that isnt using TA.

If the sales figures are 2,5,7,11,43,66,89,123,234,567, you dont need a chart to tell you there is a rising trend (well some on this thread may do, but most of the thinking world do not).

The chart is used as it offers a quick snapshot thats easy to understand. There would be no further information in that chart than there is in the numbers.

The term 'trend' was around WAY before Edwards & McGee were so much as a twinkle in their fathers eye - or Wyckoff for that matter.

 

[wrbtrader]

Quote from TheBlackHand:

...He may be using a chart to show his sales figures, but that isnt using TA.

If the sales figures are 2,5,7,11,43,66,89,123,234,567, you dont need a chart to tell you there is a rising trend (well some on this thread may do, but most of the thinking world do not).

The chart is used as it offers a quick snapshot thats easy to understand. There would be no further information in that chart than there is in the numbers...

A chart can be used for a lot more than just showing a visualization of numbers (data). It can also be used for many other things mentioned in this thread involving analysis and/or trade signals.

Simply, if you're implying that chart analysis is not technical analysis...why debate with someone posting charts that the TA doesn't work whenever they put a label (e.g. breakout) on the price action in that chart.

I'm just trying to understand how you view those that use chart analysis to make trade decisions and I do know there are many folks out there that believe chart analysis is not a form of technical analysis.

Thus, as I stated several times in this thread and many other threads. Most TA debates arise due to so many different definitions being used by traders and non traders. Thus, when someone say that it works (useful)...it may differ from something else that someone else says does not work (not useful).

P.S. This gets back to surf admitting he uses charts but isn't doing any technical analysis along with saying what he sees on the chart has no impact on trade decisions.

 

[frenchfry]

Hi Jack,

I'm now looking at your logging reference. There will be several posts with questions. It would be great if we could sort out as many as possible before tomorrow so that I can start the logging process myself. Please have a look.

Thanks

 

[Lucrum]

Quote from marketsurfer:

I surmise that even the TA church will admit that TA is not predictive, right?


If its not predictive, as the high priests of the TA church have said time and time again.

Then

What purpose does it serve? other than for illustration and math inept artists who live in a fantasy world of real time finance?


surf

Apparently whatever it is you use isn't particularly predictive either.

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=123557&highlight=gold

"04-01-08 05:01 PM

Gold is finished. gold will be sub 600 by 4.1.2009. The hype is over, the selling shall continue as large metallic holdings continue to be unwound. suggested shorting at 955, keep holding as the ride has just begun.

surf"