Why does TA not work (for you)?

Quote from NoDoji:

Surf knows I've called plenty of trades in advance here on ET, based on technical analysis. If I got all of my former trading roomies to confirm that I trade the same TA based setups all day every day and make money doing it, it wouldn't change the mind of anyone who claims that TA doesn't work.
More...

Have "observed" NoDoji trade many days.... Never saw her have a losing day and her win rate beats any odds many of you could whip out from wherever you get them.

Basic TA 101 is what I have seen.. Stuff right out of Al Brooks' books with a slant on CL and its uniqueness. Basic WT trading, buying pullbacks, watching price levels for S/R, and CT trading only after confirmation. Nothing most of you who have studied TA don't already know.

Wolf
 
Quote from kut2k2:

+1

In addition, catch this bit:

Dave: Exactly what testing have you done to prove the above idea?

Victor: These tests can readily be performed. My group of colleagues performs these tests maybe 2-3 thousand times a year over different markets and time frames.

So when asked what tests he uses to test for randomness, Neiderhoffer is fully evasive. He's like a typical politician. I doubt he even knows how to test for randomness. Surf certainly doesn't.
More...

I tend to judge traders on results. I know that sounds crazy to Surf. Tudor is up in the top echelon, VN is a blow up artist who failed.

Surf behaves EXACTLY like a politician.
 
I will translate for Jack since I think you don't understand what he means.

Jack saw Surf once pan handling on a NY subway. This is Surf's main source of income and allows him to rent internet for his cardboard box where he sleeps at night.

I don't really understand what proof one wants. I had a Forex system with over a year of data based on simple TA that had over 40 subscribers.

This means it had enough proof and an edge for investors to pay me.

There are many hedge funds that are based on simple trend following with $ billions invested.

Of course Long Term Capital did not have the ability to program their TA correctly, and their hedge fund collapsed. Not to mention Knight Capital that had such bad programmers that let a bad app cost them $ 400 million.
When I did networking for a fortune 1000 company, we had the test servers separate from the production servers. Only when we tested for several weeks did we patch the production server. It's sad Knight Capital did not have someone like me managing their operations instead of some incompetent fools.

Quote from jack hershey:

The profile being built here is priceless.

It is very difficult for the human mind to not have intellectual development.

surf's mind is developing but not in a manner that serves his normal needs. the development serves a need to survive . There is an oversupply of income for surf because of the myths being maintained by the financial industry seeminly unknowingly.

the bar is exremely low in the financial industry. To see it you have to go into a NY Subway.
More...
 
Quote from marketsurfer:

Surely you jest,

VN has a PhD in statistics, not to mention teaching it at Berkeley. He tells you the tests in other sections of the interview.
More...
A PhD in statistics who can't figure out that markets have positive serial correlation. That is truly sad. No wonder he blows up his accounts. :D
 
Quote from NoDoji:

You mean kinda like this perfect measured move breakout?

attachment.php
More...

Yea, good example.

Something like this: http://www.cornixforex.com/2012/06/daily-2b-reversal-triggered/ is way to go too... Specially picked a sample posted on June 21th to avoid "hindsight" discussion. I am sure everyone is able to check EURUSD daily chart to evaluate what happened after. :)


Must say it was pure luck of course, TA doesn't have any edge. :p
 
Quote from kut2k2:

A PhD in statistics who can't figure out that markets have positive serial correlation. That is truly sad. No wonder he blows up his accounts. :D
More...


LOL! yeah, commodity markets and index futures have positive serial correlation. Now, I have heard everything...


WAIT, no I haven't! LTCM used technical analysis? You guys have some seriously wack ideas and beliefs. Where do these come from?

:p

<b>Of course Long Term Capital did not have the ability to program their TA correctly, and their hedge fund collapsed.. </b>
 
Quote from cornixforex:

Yea, good example.

Something like this: http://www.cornixforex.com/2012/06/daily-2b-reversal-triggered/ is way to go too... Specially picked a sample posted on June 21th to avoid "hindsight" discussion. I am sure everyone is able to check EURUSD daily chart to evaluate what happened after. :)


Must say it was pure luck of course, TA doesn't have any edge. :p
More...

Huh? How about posting before the fact calls-- June 21 was nearly 2 months ago-- I don't get the above cherry picked pretty chart.



surf:confused:
 
Quote from marketsurfer:

Huh? How about posting before the fact calls-- June 21 was nearly 2 months ago-- I don't get the above cherry picked pretty chart.



surf:confused:
More...

This particular chart was posted well before the fact with the description of it as bearish setup. :)
 
Quote from cornixforex:

This particular chart was posted well before the fact with the description of it as bearish setup. :)
More...

The only example you have is from June 21? I'm sorry, but this does not count as before the fact calls and simply reinforces the ridiculousness of "picking an example as evidence" tactic of the TA true believers.

Once again, make a few before the fact calls. To be a real trader, you can't be afraid to be wrong.

surf
 
Quote from marketsurfer:

The only example you have is from June 21? I'm sorry, but this does not count as before the fact calls and simply reinforces the ridiculousness of "picking an example as evidence" tactic of the TA true believers.

Once again, make a few before the fact calls. To be a real trader, you can't be afraid to be wrong.

surf
More...

No it is not the only one, it was posted here as an example of flag pattern, not as a call. :)

If I ever wish, I will post calls... if not, then not. :)
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top