Why does TA not work (for you)?

[R. Raskolnikov]

Can you stop being so logical?

Quote from logic_man:

By saying this, you assume that the trader who first discovered a valid objective fixed TA system would put it in the public domain. Why would a trader give away an objective fixed TA system that was valid? What market would there even be for such a system? If the person who developed it was convinced it was valid, the selling price would be far above what anyone who had not traded the system would pay, so there would never be a transaction in that "market".

So, that valid objective fixed system would never become a "green light red light" public system because the person who discovered it could never get a price equivalent to its value for it.

The implication of that fact is that there could be dozens, hundreds or even thousands of "objective fixed TA systems" in the world and, unless you were the original developer, you'd never know it.

 

[luckyluciano]

Quote from TheBlackHand:

I still waiting for the Elite Traders of this site to name me one exceptional trader who has stated the reason for his success is charting. LOL.

Although some find this funny, I find those who believe in magic to be funny too!

you cannot be serious with this question........

try reading William Oneil's book

first or second chapter is all charts

 

[wrbtrader]

Quote from Tonkadad:

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"Quote from wrbtrader:

There's a lot more to profitable trading than just TA.

That's why I say that I've never met a consistently profitable trader using TA and nothing else (no money management, no discipline, not properly capitalized, no trading experience, no understanding of market context, no proper equipment, no trading plan to organize everything)...nothing...just TA all by itself. "

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I must have missed it but is this what Market Surfer's point is about?

The problem in this thread as it is in most of the other past TA debate threads is that there are too many replies by traders that do not mention anything else in their trading plan that they're using with TA. Therefore, anyone dropping in on the debate would think the person is saying he/she only uses TA and nothing else. That provides fuel for the debate by guys like marketsurfer and many others like him.

This is why threads about TA are extremely popular. In contrast, go visit other threads involving those other critical elements (e.g. money management) of a profitable traders trading plan and you'll only see a few replies or few pages.

Simply, its just a fact that most don't want to talk about nor indicate the importance of variables like money management, proper position size management, proper capitalization, proper trading environment, proper equipment, discipline, trading experience, collaboration as being just as important or arguably more important than their use of TA.

Maybe those are just boring topics for a TA user.

Think about this carefully, most beginner traders or struggling traders will concentrate on making changes to their TA whenever market conditions changes, drawdowns occurs or blowups happen.

In contrast, most profitable traders that are are veteran traders will concentrate on making changes in their money management, position size, capitalization, collaboration, discipline whenever market conditions changes, drawdowns occurs while leaving their TA not touch (no changes).

Its just sad for profitable traders using TA to give no indication about those other tools in their trading plan. Maybe its done intentional for debating purposes only.

Anyways, the next time you see a newbie trader that seems confused about his TA poor performance in live trading with real money after backtesting profitably...don't waste your time & energy analyzing the TA. Instead, take a closer look at all those other variables I've mention that's part of the trading plan to find the culprit causing the problem.

 

[marketsurfer]

Quote from luckyluciano:

you cannot be serious with this question........

try reading William Oneil's book

first or second chapter is all charts

Oneil is a promoter and fundamental trader can slim. He uses charts to illustrate

 

[marketsurfer]

@WRB

Take TA out of the mix--- would these traders who are skilled with the other factors continue to be profitable?

Surf

 

[logic_man]

Quote from HurricaneUS:

non-stationarity as it applies to trading is much much much more complex than simply "ever-changing cycles" as Dr. Steenbarger suggests, or volatility for that matter

Right, it is more complex, but the proper incorporation of volatility into one's rules can skew the odds definitely in your favor in a way that's measurably beyond just pure chance. From there, there are additional filters I apply, but the first and most important is volatility-based.

 

[logic_man]

Quote from wrbtrader:

The problem in this thread as it is in most of the other past TA debate threads is that there are too many replies by traders that do not mention anything else in their trading plan that they're using with TA. Therefore, anyone dropping in on the debate would think the person is saying he/she only uses TA and nothing else. That provides fuel for the debate by guys like marketsurfer and many others like him.

This is why threads about TA are extremely popular. In contrast, go visit other threads involving those other critical elements (e.g. money management) of a profitable traders trading plan and you'll only see a few replies or few pages.

Simply, its just a fact that most don't want to talk about nor indicate the importance of variables like money management, proper position size management, proper capitalization, proper trading environment, proper equipment, discipline, trading experience, collaboration as being just as important or arguably more important than their use of TA.

Maybe those are just boring topics for a TA user.

Think about this carefully, most beginner traders or struggling traders will concentrate on making changes to their TA whenever market conditions changes, drawdowns occurs or blowups happen.

In contrast, most profitable traders that are are veteran traders will concentrate on making changes in their money management, position size, capitalization, collaboration, discipline whenever market conditions changes, drawdowns occurs while leaving their TA not touch (no changes).

Its just sad for profitable traders using TA to give no indication about those other tools in their trading plan. Maybe its done intentional for debating purposes only.

Anyways, the next time you see a newbie trader that seems confused about his TA poor performance in live trading with real money after backtesting profitably...don't waste your time & energy analyzing the TA. Instead, take a closer look at all those other variables I've mention that's part of the trading plan to find the culprit causing the problem.

For my part, I sort of assume that those items are in place for people. They are part of the professionalism someone either brings or does not bring to their trading. Money management and discipline will have a huge effect on outcomes, without a doubt.

 

[marketsurfer]

Quote from logic_man:

For my part, I sort of assume that those items are in place for people. They are part of the professionalism someone either brings or does not bring to their trading. Money management and discipline will have a huge effect on outcomes, without a doubt.

Hmmm, if you have an objective fixed system why not program it thus removing the human element completely? Computers have no problem with discipline etc.

Unless, horrors, your system is subjective.

There is a fundamental illogical premise to the above post. Funny it would come from someone named "logic". LOL!


Surf

 

[RCG Trader]

Quote from marketsurfer:

<b>Quote from RCG Trader:

So you are in a twist about the type of data used, is that it? If you took order and graphed it for visual use, guess what you have?

An indicator!

So instead instead of graphing your data you are using spreadsheets and waiting for certain drivers to line up. And that is not TA, you say. Really?</b>


TA deals with post trade data. Price Driver deals with pre trade data. Price Driver isnt TA per the accepted definition of TA.

Alright, surf, that is fair enuf.

 

[marketsurfer]

Quote from RCG Trader:

Alright, surf, that is fair enuf.

Cool, thanks