Why does TA not work (for you)?

[R. Raskolnikov]

Part of my OHLC progression, combined with a couple other factors, does identify these situations and exploits them. Friday was a good example. I went long at 3:41, after market participants were "leaning" short. Nice way to end the trading day

Quote from cornixforex:

Well if that's so and someone intentionally traps people into TA setups, it's the greatest news ever for a TA trader, because it means behaviour of those who try to trap people can be "cracked" and parasitized upon.

 

[cornix]

Quote from marketsurfer:

You are smarter than the market? Why not start a before the fact journal, like I have, to show how you exploit these edges? ( pretty charts and would of, could of, should of don't count) real time, before the fact calls only-- like in surf's special situation journal.

surf

No idea smarter or not, as I said I cannot post calls in format of a thread due to fast day-trading nature of my trades. But I'll shows you something around Christmas as I promised, so you can judge if that's plain stupid luck or not.

P. S. Some other traders in this thread (won't point fingers, they will show up themselves if they want) post real-time calls on their own sites for YEARS, probably more years than I ever trade even... If you don't see something, doesn't mean it doesn't exist.

 

[cornix]

Quote from R. Raskolnikov:

Part of my OHLC progression, combined with a couple other factors, does identify these situations and exploits them. Friday was a good example. I went long at 3:41, after market participants were "leaning" short. Nice way to end the trading day

Great.

My logic is also: any game has two sides and what's great about the market, they cannot hide their actions. Everything they do is shown in price and volume history... And they don't invent the new trick every day, rather have "habits" which create a "market character"... which, consequently, can be read with some experience... Most people are simply too lazy to watch charts for years before starting to see those "habits" aka patterns which happen again and again...

 

[Fah Q]

Quote from marketsurfer:



Price Driver nailed JCP-- 2 trades in journal, 2 before the fact winners

only 998 1/2 trades left to determine if the system is skill or luck.

 

[marketsurfer]

Quote from Fah Q:

only 998 1/2 trades left to determine if the system is skill or luck.

Faaaaaaaa Q. Fun with fonetics? Just follow the surf special situation journal to see price drivers in real time, or play in the TA sandbox with woulda coulda shoulda pretty hindsight chart art and bandwagon support. Surf

 

[Fah Q]

Quote from marketsurfer:

Faaaaaaaa Q. Fun with fonetics? Just follow the surf special situation journal to see price drivers in real time. Surf

no thanks. let me know when you have 1000 trades documented and then i'll consider your claims.

 

[marketsurfer]

Quote from Fah Q:

no thanks. let me know when you have 1000 trades documented and then i'll consider your claims.

Sure, faaaaaaa q. Read surf report starting in 2002---- way more than 1000 trades documented. Winners overall but some losers too!
Surf

 

[Fah Q]

Quote from marketsurfer:

Sure, faaaaaaa q. Read surf report starting in 2002---- way more than 1000 trades documented. Winners overall but some losers too!
Surf

but that's not the price driver method. 1000 price driver method trades. this method is still very unproven and untested, with a lot of mighty claims.

 

[dom993]

This thread is full of opinions, which no-one really backs-up with anything tangible.


The attached P&L curve is for a system which trades a specific market inefficiency ... I spotted that inefficiency in June 2011, designed & backtested the system using about 16 months of data, "forward"-tested it on the prior 18 months, and started trading it live right away.

I recently bought quality historical data from TickData, which clearly shows this inefficiency came to life around July 2007. The trade count to date is about 820, P/F just 1.5.


Interestingly, Jack Hershey mentioned 1/2 of the underlying market driver in one of his posts in this thread.


Is 5-years long enough to qualify as "lasting" ?

 

[dom993]

Quote from dom993:

This thread is full of opinions, which no-one really backs-up with anything tangible.


The attached P&L curve is for a system which trades a specific market inefficiency ... I spotted that inefficiency in June 2011, designed & backtested the system using about 16 months of data, "forward"-tested it on the prior 18 months, and started trading it live right away.

I recently bought quality historical data from TickData, which clearly shows this inefficiency came to life around July 2007. The trade count to date is about 820, P/F just 1.5.


Interestingly, Jack Hershey mentioned 1/2 of the underlying market driver in one of his posts in this thread.


Is 5-years long enough to qualify as "lasting" ?

BTW, that market inefficiency has been very weak in the past few months ... the most likely reason for it is structural, and has really nothing to do with Surf's reasoning.