Why does TA not work (for you)?
- Thread starter Xspurt
- Start date
Want your opinion on this guy's 3-D charts. _Unlike regular TA charts his is quantifiable. _As far as I can tell, he used cycles to get buy/green or short/red signal from three ETF: SPY,VXF, EFA. _Say on Monday he gets a buy signal for SPY, VXF, EFA. _That is green, green, green. _On Tuesday, a buy signal for SPY, VXF and a short signal for EFA or that is green, green, red. _The three green/red signals have a maximum eighth combinations. _He named it pattern 1 to 8. _What is interesting is how his green patterns ,GGG, GGR, GRG, RGG and red patterns, RRR, RRG, GRR, RGR behaved. _The green patterns had a 52% win percent, the reds had 55%. _That is contrarian. _He had a pattern each day of trading and he tallied the result of the day the past six years. _His best discovery this year is the triple patterns. _That is when a pattern, say a RRR appears _three times in consecutive. _Monday RRR, Tuesday RRR, Wednesday RRR. _It is rare to happen but is significant because he says it "marks a turning point in the market". _Have not seen anything like it anywhere. _Very innovative which is why it works. _I wonder if he chose IBM, Apple, gold to sub for SPY, VXF, EFA if it is better or worse. _
His ebb chart triple patterns timeline signals -
April 16, 2007 to August 2, 2007 - SHORT
August 3, 2007 to December 6, 2007 - BUY
December 7, 2007 to April 17, 2009 - SHORT
April 20, 2009 to June 9, 2011 - BUY
June 10, 2011 to September 22, 2011 - SHORT
September 23, 2011 to February 8, 2012 - BUY
Avoided the 2008 and 2011 crashes. _Arguably the best timing system if it performs the way it has moving forward. _Holy grail, time will tell.
_
His ebb chart triple patterns timeline signals -
April 16, 2007 to August 2, 2007 - SHORT
August 3, 2007 to December 6, 2007 - BUY
December 7, 2007 to April 17, 2009 - SHORT
April 20, 2009 to June 9, 2011 - BUY
June 10, 2011 to September 22, 2011 - SHORT
September 23, 2011 to February 8, 2012 - BUY
Avoided the 2008 and 2011 crashes. _Arguably the best timing system if it performs the way it has moving forward. _Holy grail, time will tell.
_
TheBlackHand
Guest
Quote from RCG Trader:
Part of the developmental process bruh, we all went thru it if you are self taught.
Okay, so I'm getting into this TA thread so I will make a TA based call. On the ES ( S&P 500)
I caught a buy signal on Friday, but it needs to confirm. So I will say that if it were me trading this index, if price closes above 1406 on tomorrow then I would get long. My stop is 1373 at the time of this post.
If I wind up in this hypothetical long, I will update my stop if requested.
Just for fun, since TA is BS.
So why dont you trade this for real rather than a 'hypothetical trade'?
TA should apply to all markets in the same way
A trader MUST have the courage of his/her convictions, otherwise the trader is toast.
After all, TA works as so many have proven, so this should be a fail safe trade right?
TA is a subjective art form at best, an insidious market designed deception at worse. My experience indicates its attractive most to "left brain" creative types who are afflicted with hindsightitous, hero worship, name calling, testimonial, and even transfer when folks evoke non financial names such as Einstein in defense of objective TA. Bill Williams is a prime example of the Einstein transfer error in his "Trading Chaos" book. IN this thread, we see posters who, like religious fanatics quote chapter and verse in their books over an over again, these posters post chart after chart as "proof" for their misguided beliefs. WTF??
With that said, objective, rule based TA is bound to fail under testing. IF not show me, and I'll change my mind-- but its already been proven time and time again. There will always be the "perpetual motion machine" dreamers who believe via rhetoric some lost souls will follow them in their non logical defense of objective TA.
Anything that's objective and rule based can be programmed--and tested---- show me the evidence, othewise its snake oil.
surf
PS-- read Voodoo Science by Robert Parks. It's uncanny how similar the "logic" of the objective TA promoters on this thread is to the pseudo science uncovered in this book. Seriously twisted!
With that said, objective, rule based TA is bound to fail under testing. IF not show me, and I'll change my mind-- but its already been proven time and time again. There will always be the "perpetual motion machine" dreamers who believe via rhetoric some lost souls will follow them in their non logical defense of objective TA.
Anything that's objective and rule based can be programmed--and tested---- show me the evidence, othewise its snake oil.
surf
PS-- read Voodoo Science by Robert Parks. It's uncanny how similar the "logic" of the objective TA promoters on this thread is to the pseudo science uncovered in this book. Seriously twisted!
Surf's on his soap box again. He said that trading has been "very good" to him over the years and he also said he used to trade using TA. Seems like TA has been very good to him 
Quote from R. Raskolnikov:
Surf's on his soap box again. He said that trading has been "very good" to him over the years and he also said he used to trade using TA. Seems like TA has been very good to him
You are missing my point, friend. Objective TA doesn't work, cant be tested and is snake oil. Intuitive, subjective TA may work for some traders--- its cant be tested so I can't say.
As far as I go, I have worked with prop firms that taught an actual edge-- one was so easy, all it was, was pushing a button. Untill the edge ended it was awesome. These edges had nothing to do with TA. surf
PS i still use TA to illustrate concepts and to show what happened. its great for this use.
Objective TA has worked for me since 1998, but maybe that doesn't qualify as enough time if your book. And it can be tested but why would I want to share my rules with anyone? That's my proprietary system. Since I'm not SELLING anything, that's the last thing I want to do.
You've worked with or worked AT prop firms? No method is just pushing a button, please explain the situation you are describing otherwise it's just a made up example.
You've worked with or worked AT prop firms? No method is just pushing a button, please explain the situation you are describing otherwise it's just a made up example.
I was a trader at several prop firms in the past. Both taught real edge that worked-- neither required "risk deposit".
The button pushing was with inter exchange option arbitrage-- believe me, it was just pushing a button when the system presented the set up.
Price Driver nailed JCP-- 2 trades in journal, 2 before the fact winners-- where are the TA before the fact journal? Lot's of posturing and claiming but no evidence
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=3597161#post3597161
Oh, now we are getting somewhere...when the SYSTEM presented a setup. You left that out.....and what did this system look at when creating a trade opportunity?
