Why does TA not work (for you)?
- Thread starter Xspurt
- Start date
Yep, and that's something I have to deal with on a daily basis. I know my method isn't scalable past a certain point but fortunately the mkts I trade are deep enough to offer very nice earning potential.
You can just say one or the other? I'm not asking for figures here.
Why only at one price? Thre would be no counterpartys left-- we witnessed similar during flash crashes. -- as the most successful edge of all time-- speed-- nearly destroyed the markets. HFT could destroy the market because it's too powerful n edge---- legislation and regulation had to be invoked to save the market--- once again evolution stopping an edge
They both have been very good to me.
surf
I agree with Surf that intuition is what gives the successful trader his/her profits. It's all between the ears. Another way of putting it is it's not the method that matters, it's the execution of the method. Think about it, if it were anything else then the success rate in this business would not be so low.
It's just like in sports. Golf is a very simple game with simple techniques being used (how much easier can it get than hitting a ball?) but to become a highly skilled player... that goes way beyond the physical mechanics of the game.
Take this chart with some possible trendlines that could have been drawn on it. Have 20 people trade that day and you'll probably get 20 different results. At 10:00 ask them what they think about the market. Some will be shorting the upper channel limit, others will be going long off the horizontal line expecting a channel breakout, others will be on the sidelines.
It's just like in sports. Golf is a very simple game with simple techniques being used (how much easier can it get than hitting a ball?) but to become a highly skilled player... that goes way beyond the physical mechanics of the game.
Take this chart with some possible trendlines that could have been drawn on it. Have 20 people trade that day and you'll probably get 20 different results. At 10:00 ask them what they think about the market. Some will be shorting the upper channel limit, others will be going long off the horizontal line expecting a channel breakout, others will be on the sidelines.
Quote from dv4632:
I agree with Surf that intuition is what gives the successful trader his/her profits. It's all between the ears. Another way of putting it is it's not the method that matters, it's the execution of the method. Think about it, if it were anything else then the success rate in this business would not be so low.
It's just like in sports. Golf is a very simple game with simple techniques being used (how much easier can it get than hitting a ball?) but to become a highly skilled player... that goes way beyond the physical mechanics of the game.
Take this chart with some possible trendlines that could have been drawn on it. Have 20 people trade that day and you'll probably get 20 different results. At 10:00 ask them what they think about the market. Some will be shorting the upper channel limit, others will be going long off the horizontal line expecting a channel breakout, others will be on the sidelines.
Exactly. Why folks just won't admit to the intuitive subjective nature of TA instead of relying on pseudo science / flawed logic as a reason they use it, I don't understand.
You are lucky I'm not home before tomorrow. ;-)
Tiki, baro-san, Paddler, etc. please take him by his words. I know it's strange that he can annotate somebody else's chart but can't (won't) take his ownn (which are exquisite btw).
Volume annotated as leading indicator. Annotated on three fractals! ;-)
Thanks Jack!
Subjective? I don't think so. At least not for me. The price bars must OHLC a certain way, in a certain order with corresponding A, B and C characteristics. If so, I take a trade. If not, I keep observing. It's 100% objective. No guessing, no intuition. Of course, because I have been doing this for so long I tend to have intuition, but I do not take trades based on it. Sometimes I'll hold my position for longer (the subjective part I told you about in earlier posts) or clip out earlier but the entries are 100% NON RANDOM and Objective.
If you choose to not understand this, or don't want to understand this, then that's on you.
If you choose to not understand this, or don't want to understand this, then that's on you.
It would be at one price because any edge sufficiently defined to be lasting would be precise enough to identify the ideal single price at which to buy or sell. Above and below that price, the market would continue as normal. My algorithm spits out a single price at which a long or short is taken and the exit algorithm does the same to exit the trade. Other price points are irrelevant to me. So, let's say I'm trading the ES and I get a long signal. I can probably buy (at least during regular trading hours) 500 contracts pretty easily without moving the price at all. If I happen to sell during that same session, I can probably get my limit order price on the sell side for the 500 contracts as well. If my trade extends into the overnight session, I may get some slippage on the exit, but even there I've seen blocks of more than 1,000 contracts traded without moving price. So, that's how a "fixed edge" can be scaled up significantly without "destroying the market". Anyone trading 500 ES contracts and having positive expectancy is gonna do alright for themselves.
You're making a lot of unfounded assumptions about the "flash crash" here. First, the flash crash didn't nearly destroy the markets. It was a dramatic event, but the market didn't even close. Second, on what metrics are you judging "speed" the most successful edge of all time? Is anyone associated with HFT even on the top 10 list of most successful traders of all time? If not (and I don't think any of them are) how is their edge "the most successful of all time"?