Why does TA not work (for you)?

Here is a great exercise for surf.

Take my chart to a PhD SQL coder.

He codes it.

You run the code on the display and see it duplicates the annotations.

scale the chart for an illustration of a market.

run the trading results using the scaling.

The task: explain to your readesr how lucky Jack hershey was and his doing it for 54 years is not a good test.

You now have a specific unadulterated coded use of thee long term tradition of drawing parallel lines to enclose two market variables (here the volume is missing if the chart represent price movement.

If you post a P, V chart (or anyone else posts one) I will annotate it for volume as a leading indicator of price trading.

any advanced peginner can duplicate my work and any other trader can do better than I do. Others are younger and smarter as usuall. I am the dregs.
 
Quote from NoDoji:


P.S. Any chart can be traded :D
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I disagree. There has to be some liquidity and some volatility.

About the docs thingy. PC Tools make a great virus killer. I used it to get rid of whitesmoke, which not even Norton was able to do. You should check it out.
 
Quote from nigam arora:

Traditional concepts increasingly do not work, but new concepts work great.

To stay successful at trading, you have to constantly change so that you maintain your edge.
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Can you provide a link to the studies demonstrating that traditional concepts do not work, and demonstrating that a technical price action trader using traditional technical price action concepts has to constantly change to maintain an edge?

Also, please define "constantly" with regard to an intraday scalper (10-30 round trips per day) and/or short term (2-10 day holds) swing trader?

The reason I ask is that I trade traditional concepts that have been around for at least a couple decades, and the edge my system had a couple years ago in its infancy is pretty much the same as the edge it has now. I would think "constantly" means that I would've had to change at least every few months or so.
 
Quote from NoDoji:

Can you provide a link to the studies demonstrating that traditional concepts do not work, and demonstrating that a technical price action trader using traditional technical price action concepts has to constantly change to maintain an edge?

Also, please define "constantly" with regard to an intraday scalper (10-30 round trips per day) and/or short term (2-10 day holds) swing trader?

The reason I ask is that I trade traditional concepts that have been around for at least a couple decades, and the edge my system had a couple years ago in its infancy is pretty much the same as the edge it has now. I would think "constantly" means that I would've had to change at least every few months or so.
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Sister D, your intuition gives you the edge, markets evolve to counteract every successful fixed edge. This fact is lost upon the silly price only TA brigade. TA, if it has an edge, is minuscule. TA is attractive to many traders because it makes everything look so easy. Follow this line, buy now, red light green light kind of fast money attraction.

Sure, there are dozens upon dozens. Here is one example:

http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1181367

Technical Analysis Around the World


Ben R. Marshall
Massey University - Department of Economics and Finance

Rochester H. Cahan
Macquarie Capital (USA)

Jared Cahan
Macquarie Bank Ltd

August 1, 2010


Abstract: ____
Over 5,000 popular technical trading rules are not consistently profitable in the 49 country indices that comprise the Morgan Stanley Capital Index once data snooping bias is accounted for. Each market has some rules that are profitable when considered in isolation but these profits are not statistically significant after data snooping bias adjustment. There is some evidence that technical trading rules perform better in emerging markets than developed markets, which is consistent with the finding of previous studies that these markets are less efficient, but this result is not strong. While we cannot rule out the possibility that these trading rules compliment other market timing techniques or that trading rules we do not test are profitable, we do show that over 5,000 trading rules do not add value beyond what may be expected by chance when used in isolation during the time period we consider.
 
Quote from marketsurfer:

Sister Doji,

Is this more sarcasm "any chart can be traded" ?

surf
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Brother Surf, no sarcasm there! You can definitely pick a side based on any chart, but I will say that some price setups are much more inviting to me than others due to the likely survivable R:R parameters.

The chart you posted earlier wasn't too bad, though I would've wanted to be positioned short a tiny bit earlier than the hard right edge of that chart, ideally during the bar 5 bars prior to the last bar shown (with an initial stop above the high of the bar 9 bars prior to that entry bar), but it's still tradable at the right edge within reasonable risk/reward parameters for me.

attachment.php
 

Attachments

This concept is like debating pro-choice or pro-life . Comparatively, it is hard to convince one or the other once their opinion is already formed.

Anyway, it was a good way to literally KILL TIME over the weekend. :)
 
Quote from NoDoji:

Brother Surf, no sarcasm there! You can definitely pick a side based on any chart, but I will say that some price setups are much more inviting to me than others due to the likely survivable R:R parameters.

The chart you posted earlier wasn't too bad, though I would've wanted to be positioned short a tiny bit earlier than the hard right edge of that chart, ideally during the bar 5 bars prior to the last bar shown (with an initial stop above the high of the bar 9 bars prior to that entry bar), but it's still tradable at the right edge within reasonable risk/reward parameters for me.

attachment.php
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Ok, thanks for the clarification my sister in trade. You are aware those charts I posted are from a random generator?
 
Quote from nigam arora:

Programming, testing, deploying and constantly refining new concepts in technical analysis is not a trivial task even for math Ph.Ds. I know from long experience.

Please read carefully my prior post, it is repeated below for reader's convenience:

You may find your answer here

http://thearorareport.com/ZYX METHOD.htm

Please study the section titled Technical Analysis Screen.

Traditional concepts increasingly do not work, but new concepts work great.

To stay successful at trading, you have to constantly change so that you maintain your edge.

Good Luck,

Nigam
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What do you mean by ''conventional the ZYX Change Analysis Screen''?
 
Quote from marketsurfer:

Sister D, your intuition gives you the edge, markets evolve to counteract every successful fixed edge. This fact is lost upon the silly price only TA brigade. TA, if it has an edge, is minuscule. TA is attractive to many traders because it makes everything look so easy. Follow this line, buy now, red light green light kind of fast money attraction.
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What's an example of a "successful fixed edge" which the market evolved specifically to counteract? Where is your evidence that there aren't successful fixed edges which were kept out of the public domain and continue to work year after year? By definition, if they are private, you won't know about them.

Underlying those "red light green light" signals can be hundreds or thousands of lines of code.

Just because there is a range of complexity in TA practices doesn't mean they are all trying to make things "look so easy".

Trading methods are only limited by your own creativity and analytical capability. Obviously, based on IQ and work ethic, that will differ by trader.
 
Quote from NoDoji:

Can you provide a link to the studies demonstrating that traditional concepts do not work, and demonstrating that a technical price action trader using traditional technical price action concepts has to constantly change to maintain an edge?

Also, please define "constantly" with regard to an intraday scalper (10-30 round trips per day) and/or short term (2-10 day holds) swing trader?

The reason I ask is that I trade traditional concepts that have been around for at least a couple decades, and the edge my system had a couple years ago in its infancy is pretty much the same as the edge it has now. I would think "constantly" means that I would've had to change at least every few months or so.
More...

I add to your comments that 54 years has made no difference either. Some time compression does not change anything.
 
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