Quote from R. Raskolnikov:
Exactly, which was my point. If you trade successfully using TA, most likely a chart alone will not suffice.
First a chart is a display of a data stream.
To trade successfully, the problem at hand is to make use of the data stream.
The contrast between surf and intraday traders is one of events frequency.
I am stating that in either case there is no value in time series construed data.
Data consists of market price and volume data AND data that is related to placing unfilled orders into the market operation's contingent possible orders that will be affected by the market trading context.
The greatest activity in markets is the gaming of the maket by people who have the larger rights to add and delete contingent orders.
The greatest limitation on such is the market margin change twice daily. The bar 78 change is most noticable in the gaming operations.
This separates the thinking, strategies and beliefs of the position trading of surf FROM the intraday trading of most other posters (See nodoji, etc) surf is will to disparage.
Position trading as explained by surf is "reaction" trading to an amalgum of 10 or 12 interlocked contingent type variables he thinks anticipates the price movement. (If anyhing they actually "limit" the price movement when values are compared to market capacity (at the correct time)).
The best profit segments which occur, are a direct result of contingent orders becoming market orders and those orders not being executed (FIFO) at more than a partial fill rate over the range of cascading prices.(capacity issues prevail).
We all know the dates of those priceless hauls we made front running the surf types who are reactive in strategy. (Note surf's comment of when he trades interday: "I trade only once in a while when things suddenly go wrong" (paraphrasing surf).
Surf has givien some of his criteria for a proof he needs from others. The actual line in the sand occurs well before surf thinks it COULD. This means two things: surf and his reading audience is weak on stats and, further, both are weak on how taking the market's full offer is the standard to which those who design by doing monitoring and analysis (they do not use times series either since time is not the basis for expert trend forwarding analysis (See RDBMS)).
I find it remarkable that surf's audience cannot entertain the advance of the iterative refinement of TA. (See Behavioral Finaance's "BF or BS" squib)
Probably, I should present the context based construct I use the take into account the intraday gaming of the book by big money. None of this has ever had a thread in the more technical forums of ET. If and when surf figures out position trading "price drivers", he will be surprized to find that that is the way the rules work in PVT stock trading and the way the rules work for sector trading stocks in the intermediate term fractal. (SSR)
