Why does TA not work (for you)?

[logic_man]

Quote from marketsurfer:

Try www.nadex.com it's a real regulated exchange their binaries are not closed and can be traded in and out of during the time frame. surf

I will check it out. At first glance, it looks like you need to have a way of predicting where the price will be at a specific time, which is actually not something I've ever tried to do. My system is "If price does this by this time, it will continue in your direction a sufficient distance to exit at a profit at some later time". That "later time" is not something I try to predict in advance. Sometimes it's an hour, sometimes its a full day.

Anyway, I see that you didn't say why you disagree that I am also "anticipating" when I enter a trade and that your version of "anticipating" is no more robust, a priori, than mine. It's OK that you didn't answer, though, because I am fully aware that there is no rational response to the question because there is no difference and your version is no more robust a priori. It could be implemented in a more robust way than my version, but that's an empirical question that can only be answered by comparing trade histories.

 

[jack hershey]

Quote from Trend Following:

I still don't understand your fear of being interviewed. Everyone knows exactly how interviews unfold on my podcast. Can you explain the fear?

Lets call my viewpoint fear.

I have never seen any of your interviews on a podcast.

I have a complete system for trading the markets. So far I have filtered its use to only people who use their surplus profits to help solve local problems.

Once a person with an agenda that is not a good one hears my answers on your podcast, he may be able to think through how to reverse engineer it. What has worked for 54 years is that the bad guys cannot understand what I do simply because they do not "do the work".

I know you are CW oriented and you operate from the vantagepoint of learning to make money. I operate from the vantagepoint of using how the market works to be able to partner with the market by using a proper contract with the market.

My main goal right now is enabling redeployed Vets who have families and who cannot hold jobs. They will receive 15K a month from a source. I want to have a team sending out checks daily from the proceeds daily. Every month a family gets a check.

We want he vets we care for now to recruit their buddies and so on. we hope the vets who get checks will go through our mind/body program.

I do not want bad guys getting our trading set of skills.

I do not post the charts we use because they are different in appearance and that difference can't, apparently, be thought up by anyone else so far.

We use the Pattern. I gave it to you and explained the difference of up/down and right/left thinking.

They did not name the trendlines left and right for no reason. trendlines are not named as are support and resistance lines.

You are steeped in the myths of CW. To talk with you about the right/left world would be like talking to a foreigner.

I have a different vocabulary than the CW vocabulary. The CW vocabulary assigns mythical things to its words. Look at the mythical wikipedia world.

My view is that a trader is all in ALL the time and in any market that has liquidity. We see no noise, no anomalies and no flaws. We do not do entry/exit; instead we do hold/reversal. Edges are the myth that gets the marginal results as measured against the market's full offer.

You, your audience, the finacial industry and the academic world generally think in the same way. This means deals are made with agreed upon marginal values that are ridiculous to me. If I did those type deals I would be keeping most ot the work done and the people would be satisfied with a pitance (all they could get in you world).

I need to pay Vets continually and provide help for them to deal with the gift the chain of command is handing out along with the stigma they are told they have.

I do not want to change anyone's mind about anything.

The finacial industry is from whom I do the "taking". I provide money to people where they got fucked by protecting our constitution. You are on the bad guys team.

Watch the Temple Grandin Story and see how she helped steers to be happy in the face of a total redneck world.

She explained to the world how an autisitc mind works (diffrently). Her mind took care of business.

She always feared gong through doors.

I am like her. I think differently and my mind is at an extreme as minds are measured.

You are a symbol of what is wrong with Main Street putting trust in the money business which is badly broken by schemers and cheaters and people who get paid off.

I am a rebel. Ask Lola Redford, Chavez or Hoffman or Justice Douglas or the guys I worked for at EOP. We slipped the good news to a lot of people and never were on the take. I'm not called the "Green Mafia" by mistake.

I know how to take money away from the crew you represent. times are changing.

You have a cute concept of fear.

 

[hoodooman]

It seems there are at least two ways to learn how to use technical analysis.

According to this thread, one obviously popular way is to buy lots of trading books, read them all and then spend the rest of the time talking to an ostentatious narcissist with a smooth line of B.S. who doesn't know how to do it either.

Another way is to download the Medved Quote Tracker and get to work trying various indicator combinations until you find something that works.

It ain't easy bro and don't expect someone to give it to you on a silver platter.

Here is a paper I published in 1967 with C. W. Ingram who later became a professor at the University of Notre Dame.

(A spin scale theory for rigid body integration using the Frick slip frame.
adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/1967AIAAJ...5..168Dby P Daniels - 1967
A spin scale theory for rigid body integration using the Frick slip frame. Authors: Daniels, P.; Ingram, C. W.. Publication: AIAA Journal, vol. 5, issue 1, pp. 168-170 ...)

It was the first practical method ever discovered for integrating the six-degrees_of-freedom trajectory of a projectile.

I later published a total of 44 technical reports, 8 journal articles and hold 5
United States patents, all the while developing a hatred for the narcissists who would called me and say that I was a fraud.

First they call you and tell you it doesn't work or its a fraud, then when it is well accepted in the field, the same bastards go around claiming that they discovered it.

My advice to all is:
Don't be afraid of hard work and NEVER reject anyone who says they have a good idea.
Regards
peter daniels

 

[NoDoji]

Quote from logic_man:

I think there is a difference between that study and Steve's point, which is that in the study, the students didn't randomly choose to not participate in some trials and they didn't apply a random selection process like a coin flip to determine which way they went when they did choose.

Let's say you have 100 trade signals over the next 100 days, but you flip a coin to only end up taking 50 of them. Those 50 should, within some margin of error, have the same win percentage as the 100 would have. That's with all things being equal, but as the number of trades approached the thousands, I agree with Steve that the expectancy should remain consistent even if you only take 50% of those thousands of trades. There are a couple of things, at least, which could change the expectancy over the short run, but over the long run, I don't think it would change.

I understand this point you guys are making, but we're not machines. We won't "randomly" pick and choose using a coin flip. We have a tendency to personify price action and choose unwisely. I have two solid years of precision price action scalping under my belt and after all this time, the best trades still tend to "feel" like the most difficult ones to take. Even my trading roomies frequently said, "I don't how can you take a trade like that" or "I don't know, it looks pretty weak here" (shortly after I get long).

It was the toughest thing to get my opinion out of the way. There's a guy on ET named Tomahawk and he constantly reminded me that "the market rewards what is difficult".

 

[marketsurfer]

Quote from NoDoji:

I understand this point you guys are making, but we're not machines. We won't "randomly" pick and choose using a coin flip. We have a tendency to personify price action and choose unwisely. I have two solid years of precision price action scalping under my belt and after all this time, the best trades still tend to "feel" like the most difficult ones to take. Even my trading roomies frequently said, "I don't how can you take a trade like that" or "I don't know, it looks pretty weak here" (shortly after I get long).

It was the toughest thing to get my opinion out of the way. There's a guy on ET named Tomahawk and he constantly reminded me that "the market rewards what is difficult".

Think completely outside the box, Ms.. Doji. Imagine entering a trade without looking at the price-- simply flip a coin for long or short. this would eliminate any bias and personification of price action-- I agree with you there. THEN manage the trade with your skill and discipline--- I venture you could make it work....

surf

 

[jack hershey]

Quote from NoDoji:

I understand this point you guys are making, but we're not machines. We won't "randomly" pick and choose using a coin flip. We have a tendency to personify price action and choose unwisely. I have two solid years of precision price action scalping under my belt and after all this time, the best trades still tend to "feel" like the most difficult ones to take. Even my trading roomies frequently said, "I don't how can you take a trade like that" or "I don't know, it looks pretty weak here" (shortly after I get long).

It was the toughest thing to get my opinion out of the way. There's a guy on ET named Tomahawk and he constantly reminded me that "the market rewards what is difficult".

The market is counterintuitive.

All trends end and it is usually within the bounds of the exisitng trend.

Why a trend continues is exclusive of why a trend ends. Most people focus on one or the other. Until you get to where a trend can end it is bast to focus on why it is continuing.

 

[baro-san]

Quote from NoDoji:

... the best trades still tend to "feel" like the most difficult ones to take. Even my trading roomies frequently said, "I don't how can you take a trade like that" or "I don't know, it looks pretty weak here" (shortly after I get long). ...

<img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=3595423>

 

[Albert Cibiades]

Quote from jack hershey:

Watch the Temple Grandin Story and see how she helped steers to be happy in the face of a total redneck world.

She explained to the world how an autisitc mind works (diffrently). Her mind took care of business.

She always feared gong through doors.

I am like her. I think differently and my mind is at an extreme as minds are measured.B]

I was much moved by this post. Ordinarily with your posts it is my bowels, but today it was my very soul, black and adamantine and miniscule though it be. I had never heard of Temple Grandin before I read Oliver Sacks' "An Anthropologist on Mars." She told him "My father was remote, pedandantic, and socially inept." As was mine. That was my introduction to Asperger's Syndrome. Now I are one, although very very very high functioning. Do you count yourself amongst us? If so, does Saint Liz know and understand?

(BTW, I gave you a very shiny new present yesterday, but you never said thanks. I guess you didn't comprehend it. Perhaps your brain is as hard as my heart.)

 

[Fah Q]

Quote from ocean5:

most people are focusing on tearing you fking head off!

can you pls stop ruining this thread with all your anger and threats?? send your messages as pm's. no reason to keep going nuts here. thanks ocean my man.

 

[jack hershey]

Quote from Albert Cibiades:

I was much moved by this post. Ordinarily with your posts it is my bowels, but today it was my very soul, black and adamantine and miniscule though it be. I had never heard of Temple Grandin before I read Oliver Sacks' "An Anthropologist on Mars." She told him "My father was remote, pedandantic, and socially inept." As was mine. That was my introduction to Asperger's Syndrome. Now I are one, although very very very high functioning. Do you count yourself amongst us? If so, does Saint Liz know and understand?

(BTW, I gave you a very shiny new present yesterday, but you never said thanks. I guess you didn't comprehend it. Perhaps your brain is as hard as my heart.)

Temple's mom and her mom's sis made temple's life work. Temple has a PhD from Uof A.

People with different than ordinary minds can look at problems differently.

I found this out in 5th grade with fractions and in HS and with chemistry and physics.

At WECO, I found out how to do electronic sub- assembly testing to not have miswiring failures. That is when I determined how money related to havin a different type mind. Being an MTS at BTL while still in grad school was another sign.

Joining IBM and becoming active in trading in 1957, ended having to work. The SEC getting a computer was hilarious because they saw me as a super criminal. The hilarious is a "look-back orientation. At the time, my lawyers (broker lawyers) ware almost as dumb as the SEC. In the end they all agreed I couldn't know that many people (A harmless and great solution).

I got involved with women through ski racing (See first year(s) of Warren Miller). Sexy blondes who liked snow and sand and the slate beaches at Monaco. See Who's Who of Women. Then Princeton sorted them and I met an enviromental psychologist. See Cos Club in NYC. At CMS and SS time I met Liz. She is the Rolex winner of the insurance industry. She traded at 30% a month starting in he 6 digits. Middle one was champ in book writing.

Now its 2012. It is something to see all the minds being destroyed by military exposure. AND Higgs.

We do sit around and marvel at why no one can duplicate the system that works.

I printed the SPY I circled and saw that the 20ma is 1/3 slower than my trading fractal on ES. The 20ma had a non degapped carry over, though. Ughly to think about.

I missd your post.

It is hard to explain to these characters here how huge systems work and how to front run them. the sving grace is that the wrong solutions prevail and the hustlers can sell them to the innnocent.

wre I to comment on how things work upstairs, I would say I am primarily a sub conscious person and it is very easy to see how hard my brain works while I sleep. Walking is the same. I do 3 miles each day of weekends, so I just get out the white paper and write the logic down, either when I wake up or stop walking.

Tofte was a great adventure for me. So was the Jung Institute.

If you can get ahold of "The Mud Island Study". The center fold is the logic of iterative refinement for architectural design. The AIA's book on how the built and natural environemnts connect is another one of my goodies. The cover is very cool. Volume 2 of the water book has the interfrence tables in it for fixing the APHA waer testing. I concentrated on how the organic industry affected water; no one had thought about it at that time. Now, DuPont makes zillions fixing other companies errors.

What I like most is looking for people who can ge a little glimmer of how the market works. Once on ET a guy can right up beside what he needed to discove. and then he went in another unreasonable direction. It is all how neuroscience operates; the market is a huge mind and not one gets it that that is the structure.

My fav theoretical phys prof was Peter Gabrial Bergman very swift transfer guy.

SA turns out to be a good ticket to get jobs done.

I missed your gift; I'll look around. I really hought you would have had fun watching me make a noob rich fast. Too bad; ET would have had records posted.