Why does TA not work (for you)?

[ammo]

just as a saw,square,level and hammer are necessary tools for a successful carpenter, so are the many clues present in technical analysis,when working. ,unless the carpenter knows how to use them they are more dangerous than useful,same goes with the tools we use in trading ..the most important tool is your mind ..... "by proper mental equipment,we do not mean the mere ability to take a loss,define the trend or execute some other move characteristic of the professional trader. We refer to the active or dormant qualities in the make-up: viz,the power to drill himself into the right mental attitude; to stifle his emotions,such as fear,anxiety,elation,recklessness; to train his mind into obedience so that it recognizes but one master-the tape. These qualities are as vital as natural ability ,or what is called the sixth sense of trading." Wycoff circa 1910

 

[jack hershey]

Quote from Trend Following:

The offer is just to interview you. Most might consider that a typical request. Not sure I follow the ludicrous part.

To interview a person has to ask questions.

You have a record of question asking.

The consequences of your question asking are also on the record.

You see your suggestion as an offer.

You believe you are doing something typical.

Long ago, I gave you the Pattern. The Pattern is "outside of the box" for most people and for you, it is deemd "gibberish".

I have written a book that addresses every detail of a system. By mid september, I will go to a platform vendors meeting to see if I can gain some education on their limitations. I need "to burn" a few platform vendors to find out why the state of the art is so abysmal.

I also will have completed an Appendix that has a trading record of growing capital using a complete system.

Ludicrous is in the dictionary.

Once I scheduled four times with CNBC. It ws not my destiny to go to Engelwood, NJ. There was no way to negotiate an exchange between two parties where there is no overlap of knowledge that has utility.

You will not know what I am talking about. I will know what your questions are NOT talkiing about.

for what ever could come up, I can open an fully written and illustrated resource. But you cannot grasp the contents in the resource.

Once I called the money man at Prentice Hall. I was assigned the senior editor of your editor in 48 hours. how did that happen? In one phone call, I pointed out the mistakes of Prentice Hall; they got the message.

You will never write as many books as I have written. I have many disciplines in which I am accomplished. I write in those disiplines.

Our minds are different.

 

[Redneck]

Quote from NoDoji:

I think I finally understand what you're arguing and you are correct! Charts are absolutely not predictive. Nothing is predictive. No chart pattern or indicator or combination of patterns/indicators or news release or massive depth/height to which price has dropped/risen can predict with certainty what price will do next.

What you're missing, Surf, is that experienced, profitable TA traders DO NOT believe they can increase the odds on any individual entry.

The odds of any trading plan are based on what price has done in the past more often than not over a period of time that encompasses a wide variety of market conditions. A variety of market conditions includes strong trends with shallow pullbacks, channeling trends with deep pullbacks, wide ranges, narrow ranges, bull runs and bear runs.

When a student of PA/TA finds, through extensive and diligent documented research, that certain price and/or indicator patterns (setups) create a sufficiently profitable move to overcome the deficit of a logically placed stop loss (plus commission and slippage) more often than not, the student prepares a trading plan that describes the patterns, entry methods, and trade management techniques to exploit this edge.

The student trades these patterns (PA/TA) according to the plan.

Once the student overcomes the basic human instincts that interfere with success in the uncertainty of the trading environment, s/he eventually attains a mindset and reaches a level of experience with that mindset which results in consistent profitability.

This trader's mindset means you trade your plan despite personal bias/opinion, and you fully realize that:

1. Anything can happen

2. You don't need to know what is going to happen in order to make money

3. There is a random distribution between wins and losses for any given set of variables that define an edge

4. An edge is nothing more than an indication of a higher probability of one thing happening over the other

5. Every moment in the market is unique

- Mark Douglas, Trading the Zone

So I agree with you that charts are not predictive and I believe that you are right to alert any trader who believes s/he can increase the odds on an entry that this a very dangerous belief in trading.

Odds are based on X number of trades, not on any individual entry. A common complaint on ET is traders who have losing trades then skip the next appearance of their setup, and of course it's the good one. Picking and choosing trades from a basket of valid setups destroys any edge.

NOD,

Simply and very eloquently stated Ma'am


RN

 

[Trend Following]

I still don't understand your fear of being interviewed. Everyone knows exactly how interviews unfold on my podcast. Can you explain the fear?

Quote from jack hershey:

To interview a person has to ask questions.

You have a record of question asking.

The consequences of your question asking are also on the record.

You see your suggestion as an offer.

You believe you are doing something typical.

Long ago, I gave you the Pattern. The Pattern is "outside of the box" for most people and for you, it is deemd "gibberish".

I have written a book that addresses every detail of a system. By mid september, I will go to a platform vendors meeting to see if I can gain some education on their limitations. I need "to burn" a few platform vendors to find out why the state of the art is so abysmal.

I also will have completed an Appendix that has a trading record of growing capital using a complete system.

Ludicrous is in the dictionary.

Once I scheduled four times with CNBC. It ws not my destiny to go to Engelwood, NJ. There was no way to negotiate an exchange between two parties where there is no overlap of knowledge that has utility.

You will not know what I am talking about. I will know what your questions are NOT talkiing about.

for what ever could come up, I can open an fully written and illustrated resource. But you cannot grasp the contents in the resource.

Once I called the money man at Prentice Hall. I was assigned the senior editor of your editor in 48 hours. how did that happen? In one phone call, I pointed out the mistakes of Prentice Hall; they got the message.

You will never write as many books as I have written. I have many disciplines in which I am accomplished. I write in those disiplines.

Our minds are different.

 

[cornix]

Quote from marketsurfer:

Yes, the same argument can be made for TA traders who wonder why they can never "make it work".

Yes, definitely. But only regarding those who, as you said, can never make it work.

Both winners and losers watch the same market data, the only difference is in their perception.

 

[cornix]

Quote from marketsurfer:

Yes, absolutely. I would be thrilled to see a "forex" trader demonstrate on collective 2 or covestor-- 3 months of profitable trading using TA. Show me! surf

Only those two companies or some other clearly legit 3rd party resource is fine too?

 

[cornix]

Quote from BSAM:

Brother Surf, are you planning to use this thread as part of your book?

Our brother Surf seems to be fishing for track records here...

 

[Jestersofmalice]

Quote from BSAM:

Are you using indicators?

I make use of one custom indicator, but it only plays a part on some trades. Mostly just identifying price levels and using price action.

 

[pythontrader]

Quote from jack hershey:

To interview a person has to ask questions.

You have a record of question asking.

The consequences of your question asking are also on the record.

You see your suggestion as an offer.

You believe you are doing something typical.

Long ago, I gave you the Pattern. The Pattern is "outside of the box" for most people and for you, it is deemd "gibberish".

I have written a book that addresses every detail of a system. By mid september, I will go to a platform vendors meeting to see if I can gain some education on their limitations. I need "to burn" a few platform vendors to find out why the state of the art is so abysmal.

I also will have completed an Appendix that has a trading record of growing capital using a complete system.

Ludicrous is in the dictionary.

Once I scheduled four times with CNBC. It ws not my destiny to go to Engelwood, NJ. There was no way to negotiate an exchange between two parties where there is no overlap of knowledge that has utility.

You will not know what I am talking about. I will know what your questions are NOT talkiing about.

for what ever could come up, I can open an fully written and illustrated resource. But you cannot grasp the contents in the resource.

Once I called the money man at Prentice Hall. I was assigned the senior editor of your editor in 48 hours. how did that happen? In one phone call, I pointed out the mistakes of Prentice Hall; they got the message.

You will never write as many books as I have written. I have many disciplines in which I am accomplished. I write in those disiplines.

Our minds are different.

Jack!!! I would like to have your so called books hanging in my restroom. They will by made of the cheapest paper one can get on the street right? My ass will be glad reading it every time I will be wiping it.

I love you Jack!!! Thank you! Bring it on!

 

[TIKITRADER]

Quote from Trend Following:

I still don't understand your fear of being interviewed. Everyone knows exactly how interviews unfold on my podcast. Can you explain the fear?

Simply, it's difficult for all four of them to get their
schedules in sync for an interview...
Snopes !