Why does TA not work (for you)?

Use TA to react to market moves, not predict. That's a good starter.
 
Quote from logic_man:

A few days ago there was a thread about "what was the most important thing for you to learn" or something like that. I said "Learning how to lose" and it has definitely made all the difference for me. I treat every trade like a scientific experiment with a right and a wrong answer. When I get the wrong answer from the market, I exit. What I love about my strategy is that the answer nearly always gets "wronger" after I exit, so my exiting was definitely the right move at the time. There's always another trade on the horizon.

The funny thing I have found about discipline is that there is a positive feedback loop for discipline embedded in a good strategy. If you have a good strategy, you are going to find that your breaks in discipline cost you money. After being burned enough on this, you will adhere to your rules.
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That makes sense to a point. Like soros reflexity or something?
 
Quote from logic_man:

A few days ago there was a thread about "what was the most important thing for you to learn" or something like that. I said "Learning how to lose" and it has definitely made all the difference for me. I treat every trade like a scientific experiment with a right and a wrong answer. When I get the wrong answer from the market, I exit. What I love about my strategy is that the answer nearly always gets "wronger" after I exit, so my exiting was definitely the right move at the time. There's always another trade on the horizon.

The funny thing I have found about discipline is that there is a positive feedback loop for discipline embedded in a good strategy. If you have a good strategy, you are going to find that your breaks in discipline cost you money. After being burned enough on this, you will adhere to your rules.
More...


+1 !!!!

I couldn't agree more. That first paragraph is a gamebreaker. If a guy can adhere to what you said, they will do tremendous. I use trailing stops to take losses on all trades. Once the stop is hit, trade over...move on. Look for the new trade.

Back in the mid 90's I had probably 15-20 buddies who traded. Now there are 3 of us left. I can safely say that all of the ones who got knocked out were due to lack of discipline. Not knowing when to say "this trade is wrong".

I went back and looked over the last few years of my trading results, and the amount of money I saved by changing the risk on each trade is insane.
 
Quote from marketsurfer:

:D :D :D. ND is NoDoji. No clue if that's the real name, anything is possible. We will have to take he comment at face value unless it's clarified. I think it wasn't sarcasm, but I have no actual evidence.
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Come on man, you know what she meant.

Clarified? I will clarify it for you, SARCASM.
 
Quote from marketsurfer:

That makes sense to a point. Like soros reflexity or something?
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Yes, like Soros, to a degree.

My reading of Soros is that underlying his philosophy of the markets is the statement "the market is always wrong" and, well, that's what I think as well. There is no "equilibrium". The market always overshoots in both directions.

If you can identify the "moment of recognition", when the collective recognizes that it's overshot and now begins the process of overshooting in the other direction, it's a pretty powerful framework for entering and managing trades.
 
Quote from Tonkadad:

Come on man, you know what she meant.

Clarified? I will clarify it for you, SARCASM.
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Let's let her clarify. Untill then the words are what they are. Surf
 
Quote from logic_man:

Yes, like Soros, to a degree.

My reading of Soros is that underlying his philosophy of the markets is the statement "the market is always wrong" and, well, that's what I think as well. There is no "equilibrium". The market always overshoots in both directions.

If you can identify the "moment of recognition", when the collective recognizes that it's overshot and now begins the process of overshooting in the other direction, it's a pretty powerful framework for entering and managing trades.
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No argument here. But it's not the collective of traders, it's the capital. Could be one guy making the price change.
 
Quote from traderchi128:

+1 !!!!

I couldn't agree more. That first paragraph is a gamebreaker. If a guy can adhere to what you said, they will do tremendous. I use trailing stops to take losses on all trades. Once the stop is hit, trade over...move on. Look for the new trade.

Back in the mid 90's I had probably 15-20 buddies who traded. Now there are 3 of us left. I can safely say that all of the ones who got knocked out were due to lack of discipline. Not knowing when to say "this trade is wrong".

I went back and looked over the last few years of my trading results, and the amount of money I saved by changing the risk on each trade is insane.
More...


I think that one reason it's really important to design your trading strategies for the right timeframe for you is precisely that it makes it easier to "move on" if you know that you won't get frustrated waiting for the next trade. Before I understood this fact, part of the reason I'd hang on to a loser is because I didn't know when the next trade would come along. Stupid, but that's the kind of stupid thing you do when you don't have a solid plan.

Not wanting to be wrong also hurt me. When you look at other parts of your life, like academics or work, and you see that you are right 90% of the time, you tend to think that translates to trading, but it doesn't. Nor does it need to. You can be right 50% of the time and make a killing.
 
Quote from logic_man:

I think that one reason it's really important to design your trading strategies for the right timeframe for you is precisely that it makes it easier to "move on" if you know that you won't get frustrated waiting for the next trade. Before I understood this fact, part of the reason I'd hang on to a loser is because I didn't know when the next trade would come along. Stupid, but that's the kind of stupid thing you do when you don't have a solid plan.

Not wanting to be wrong also hurt me. When you look at other parts of your life, like academics or work, and you see that you are right 90% of the time, you tend to think that translates to trading, but it doesn't. Nor does it need to. You can be right 50% of the time and make a killing.
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So random entries are ok? Right 50% of the time, flip a coin 50/50. Obviously with solid money management.
 
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