Why does TA not work (for you)?

[marketsurfer]

Quote from Laissez Faire:

Still waiting for your answer.

Thanks, sorry for the delay.

1. A price driver is what actually moves price. It has nothing to do with price itself--price is the effect not the cause-- one needs to know the cause to get an edge. the fixation on past price only is what I believe is the fatal flaw of TA--I am not going to talk about specifics, but price drivers can be news, economic reports, insider buying, large players buying or selling, the book, HFT activity---among proprietary items that I am not going to mention.

2. Obviously, HFT is not the only way to profit-- but it is the most successful trading method ever created. Anyone can profit from the market-- even astrologers-- google my friend Arch Crawford-- an Astrologer with the #1 ranked newsletter for a number of years---profiting does not mean the process isn't random-- everyone has streaks of wins, regardless of the method-- some even will reach a critical mass during a winning streak then be able, via money management, to keep profiting. The method doesn' matter-- survivorship bias comes into play here-- in other words, we only hear from the winners or liars-- the vast majority lose thus are no longer heard from again as they move on to other pursuits where they may find success.

3. The HFT I am familiar with does not use "past price data". It uses the book and intermarket relationships for decisions making.

4. Sounds to me that your last point is talking about randomness. The pattern works until it doesn't . You call this "certain conditions" and "certain points of time". You say patterns work, then they don't but sometimes they come back--i call this randomness----- You realize you can only see this in the past? Patterns do not matter after the entry. You are using hindsight bias to defend the TA religion.

If what I am saying resonates with anyone, my suggestion is to find a REAL EDGE or EMBRACE THE FACT THAT YOU ARE DEALING WITH RANDOMNESS and deal with it-- Regardless of the absurdity of TA-- you can and will profit from trading if you approach it the right way....


surf

 

[marketsurfer]

Quote from ocean5:

You know who the flippers are?No?Then goodbye.

Paul Rotter-- and no, I don't know him.

surf

 

[R. Raskolnikov]

Whoever said past price ONLY? I have quite a bit of proprietary info that I won't mention here either.

Since you don't have all the pieces, you shoudn't definitively declare something worthless or "a religion" just as I would never presume to declare that your price drivers approach is flawed or wrong.

Plus you haven't daytraded in 7 years. What makes you an expert on the subject of daytrading?

Quote from marketsurfer:



1. the fixation on past price only is what I believe is the fatal flaw of TA--

....among proprietary items that I am not going to mention

surf

 

[marketsurfer]

Quote from R. Raskolnikov:

Whoever said past price ONLY? I have quite a bit of proprietary info that I won't mention here either.

Since you don't have all the pieces, you shoudn't definitely declare something worthless or "a religion" just as I would never presume to declare that your price drivers approach is flawed or wrong.

The MTA? From Wikipedia.


If you have a system that works, great --I'm not ripping on anyone's personal system--- However, this is how TA is defined:



A fundamental principle of technical analysis is that a market's price reflects all relevant information, so their analysis looks at the history of a security's trading pattern rather than external drivers such as economic, fundamental and news events. Therefore, price action would also tend to repeat itself due many investors collectively tend toward patterned behavior_– hence technicians' focus on identifiable trends and conditions.[51][52]
[edit]Market action discounts everything
Based on the premise that all relevant information is already reflected by prices, technical analysts believe it is important to understand what investors think of that information, known and perceived.
[edit]Prices move in trends
See also: Market trend
Technical analysts believe that prices trend directionally, i.e., up, down, or sideways (flat) or some combination. The basic definition of a price trend was originally put forward by Dow Theory.[34]

 

[TheBlackHand]

Quote from jack hershey:

All trends end and begin with an FTT.

Don't listen to me....... Be a joker for some deep very sad reasons.

The only joke round here is someone who claims to be so good the SEC are suspicious of him, yet he cant pay a small tax bill.

The real sad issue is the mark of a grade 1 loser: someone who feels the need to bore everyone with stories about what car they drive, where they go on holiday, and other Walter Mitty stuff. Successful people just dont behave like that - especially on a broadly anonymous internet forum.

I feel sorry for you. I really do.

 

[marketsurfer]

Quote from TheBlackHand:

The only joke round here is someone who claims to be so good the SEC are suspicious of him, yet he cant pay a small tax bill.

The real sad issue is the mark of a grade 1 loser: someone who feels the need to bore everyone with stories about what car they drive, where they go on holiday, and other Walter Mitty stuff. Successful people just dont behave like that - especially on a broadly anonymous internet forum.

I feel sorry for you. I really do.

I agree, jack is off the wall---I have him on ignore--- but not paying taxes could be some kind of a protest and have nothing to do with the ability to pay. Wealthy tax protestors/fugitives are quite common.

 

[Laissez Faire]

Quote from marketsurfer:



1. A price driver is what actually moves price. It has nothing to do with price itself - price is the effect not the cause-- one needs to know the cause to get an edge. the fixation on past price only is what I believe is the fatal flaw of TA - I am not going to talk about specifics, but price drivers can be news, economic reports, insider buying, large players buying or selling, the book, HFT activity - among proprietary items that I am not going to mention.

So, a price driver is in essence someone, either an individual or the aggregated behaviour of multiple participants who exerts concerted buying pressure or selling pressure in the market? This is nothing new and market auction theory 101.

And yes, you can use charts (not really necessary though) and prior price movements to gauge the probability of price turning/continuing at certain price levels because one may assume the "price drivers" will enter at that point.

Let`s say, if the market has made a local top intraday and the average intraday range known from volatility analysis is already breached by a margin, we can make an educated guess that if we trade towards this top one more time, it may be a reasonable short entry (the price drivers will enter) and afterwards print what is known as a double top. We are entering in real time, as price is rejected once again by the price drivers and we then exit as the downswing completes.

I don`t agree that patterns going in and out of fashion is randomness, but it is about adapting to the ever changing cycles of the market that Victor Niederhoffer likes to to talk about (add money management).

The most simple pattern would be buying retracements in an uptrend, a pattern that works very well, as long as the uptrend persists. When the trend reverses or goes sideways, the trader who is not able to adapt by staying out of the market or adopting a strategy that profits from the new market conditions will get slaughtered (blow up).

Now, it seems evident to me that you are in fact using a form of technical analysis yourself, but you are making an effort to sound more sophisticated than you really are.

 

[marketsurfer]

Laissez,

You are missing my point completely. If I see you at Victor's in October-- or at the surf fest ---I'll try to explain in person. Regards, surf

 

[contra]

surfer, what type of HFT are you speaking of when you're saying it's the best strategy ever?

Do you have any links to funds that use this or any info on what type of HFT they are doing and their performance over say a couple of years?

You have to take into account how much it costs to actually run those.

 

[Laissez Faire]

Quote from marketsurfer:

Laissez,

You are missing my point completely. If I see you at Victor's in October-- or at the surf fest ---I'll try to explain in person. Regards, surf

I was not aware that I was invited?

I think it is better that you try to explain your point here. I`m always interested in learning, so I`m not being argumentative for the sake of being argumentative. I simply do not understand what it really is you are saying.

Thanks.