Quote from TheBlackHand:
LOL.
Try again...
All trends end and begin with an FTT.
Don't listen to me....... Be a joker for some deep very sad reasons.
Why does TA not work (for you)?
- Thread starter Xspurt
- Start date
All trends end and begin with an FTT.
Don't listen to me....... Be a joker for some deep very sad reasons.
In the middle of the system is the category test procedure.
1. test for a repeat.
2. do reverse chron tests to get a leftmost true.
3. if all falses, go to next category.
Always put an X in a killed task box (use your log to record the tests) before you do 1, 2 and 3,
This is the page in the 3 ring binder that you see right up front.
since all categories are completely defined, they can be completely tested.
OODA (marketsurfer, quants, etc.... cant do this. they write that they believe trend monitoring and analysis cannot be quantified. They can't do it which is true.
MADA users of any approach can use it. We use the correct tools.
You do tests during the bar's formation. This is an event forming as seconds pass. you have to have the correct context to be able to do the test when it is correct to do the test.
Now the picture of shells surrounding shells has come into the picture. there are five shells. There is a 3 ring binder for each shell.
The first shell we did was the toughest to do. It also answers why a person does logs.
You go through 2 three ring binders a month with punching your logs and the annotated charts.
1. test for a repeat.
2. do reverse chron tests to get a leftmost true.
3. if all falses, go to next category.
Always put an X in a killed task box (use your log to record the tests) before you do 1, 2 and 3,
This is the page in the 3 ring binder that you see right up front.
since all categories are completely defined, they can be completely tested.
OODA (marketsurfer, quants, etc.... cant do this. they write that they believe trend monitoring and analysis cannot be quantified. They can't do it which is true.
MADA users of any approach can use it. We use the correct tools.
You do tests during the bar's formation. This is an event forming as seconds pass. you have to have the correct context to be able to do the test when it is correct to do the test.
Now the picture of shells surrounding shells has come into the picture. there are five shells. There is a 3 ring binder for each shell.
The first shell we did was the toughest to do. It also answers why a person does logs.
You go through 2 three ring binders a month with punching your logs and the annotated charts.
Those of you who oppose technical analysis, are you claiming something else? Is the discussion really a matter of semantics and a lack of a proper definition of what technical analysis really is?
Most textbooks would agree with the following definition: "Technical Analysis is the forecasting of future financial price movements based on an examination of past price movements."
The discussion can`t really be about charts, because there are many systems using technical analysis that don`t really need charts for generating signals. Statistical analysis is also technical analysis.
So, I take it that what you are really saying is that it is not possible to exploit historical patterns based on past price behavior for profit in the future? If not, what else can we use as input for our analysis except fundamental analysis?
Is your thesis that it is impossible to predict price?
Not really interested in discussing this as I know for myself what I believe to be true, but I`m interested in what is really being discussed here after 70 pages.
Quote from Laissez Faire:
Those of you who oppose technical analysis, are you claiming something else? Is the discussion really a matter of semantics and a lack of a proper definition of what technical analysis really is?
Most textbooks would agree with the following definition: "Technical Analysis is the forecasting of future financial price movements based on an examination of past price movements."
The discussion can`t really be about charts, because there are many systems using technical analysis that don`t really need charts for generating signals. Statistical analysis is also technical analysis.
So, I take it that what you are really saying is that it is not possible to exploit historical patterns based on past price behavior for profit in the future? If not, what else can we use as input for our analysis except fundamental analysis?
Is your thesis that it is impossible to predict price?
Not really interested in discussing this as I know for myself what I believe to be true, but I`m interested in what is really being discussed here after 70 pages.
Yes, it has been proven time and time again that it is impossible to predict price based on past price/volume movements. These factors are irrelevant to the future. If they were not irrelevant you would be able to answer the question-- how many moves in one direction, or series of moves increase the odds that the next move or series will be in the same or opposite direction.
You can use price drivers that are evident prior to price moving and you can use the book (just like HFT does ) for an edge.
If there was/is an edge in past price it would have been exploited to extinction a long time ago. You think the rooms full of quants just sit around and read the paper? Every pattern has been tested adinfiium every TA tool, and there is NOTHING but delusion of the faithful;;;;
First define price action-- is it time and sales? Is it a price chart? Is it both? Is it something else?
I agree, price action is TA, as well as charts. However, price drivers like the book happen PRIOR to price action therefore can be used and manipulated to gain an actual edge.
TA folks only look at price AFTER it has occured, whereas pro traders with edge ---know the book and anticipate price prior to it occuring--- if you can grasp this, you are on the way to understanding how markets really work.
I agree, price action is TA, as well as charts. However, price drivers like the book happen PRIOR to price action therefore can be used and manipulated to gain an actual edge.
TA/price action folks only look at price AFTER it has occured, whereas pro traders with edge ---know the book/price drivers and anticipate price prior to it occuring--- if you can grasp this, you are on the way to understanding how markets really work.