Why does TA not work (for you)?
- Thread starter Xspurt
- Start date
Ok, i'll say it again--logic and others are missing it. Past is post trade execution, Pre is prior to trade execution-- no need to bring in exogenous information to define these two things. Obviously, Pre can be changed for your benefit, post can not be changed.
It's in relation to the subject not esoteric grabbing of definitions unrelated to the subject``` as illustrated below
<b>Don't DOM (the book) patterns also constitute themselves PAST experience, used to increase odds of something happening in the future?
How can one analyse with any tool, other than using patterns of the PAST precedents, which lead to a certain outcome in the certain % of cases?</b>
It's in relation to the subject not esoteric grabbing of definitions unrelated to the subject``` as illustrated below
<b>Don't DOM (the book) patterns also constitute themselves PAST experience, used to increase odds of something happening in the future?
How can one analyse with any tool, other than using patterns of the PAST precedents, which lead to a certain outcome in the certain % of cases?</b>
I'm done here. Time to make some money.
I enjoyed the banter, thanks!
surf
I enjoyed the banter, thanks!
surf
In recognition of the fact that trading is a zero-sum game and my gains have to come from someone else's losses, I say that everyone should listen to marketsurfer, despite my earlier objections.
His ideas are well-thought out and completely make sense. If they don't at first, just keep trying. Whatever you do, just keep at it and I'm sure that eventually all of the very sensible and practical opinions he has about trading will make you money.
His ideas are well-thought out and completely make sense. If they don't at first, just keep trying. Whatever you do, just keep at it and I'm sure that eventually all of the very sensible and practical opinions he has about trading will make you money.
Surf,
You can type til your fingers bleed and the vast majority of ET will proclaim what I great book Edwards and Magee is. It actually is a terrific book but do the strategies in the book lead to profitability? Umm...no.
To the best of my recollection here is what I recently wrote to a PM I received, plus a few extra tid bits.
I use TA and Statistical Analysis, which includes automated data systems that crunch numbers for things like Time Series Analysis, Regression Analysis, Outlier Analysis, and such, but there is one element that any type of analysis cannot detect and that is the human element of "just knowing," which is based on years of watching the market move and an innate ability to read that movement and make decisions that are based on acquired or innate talent. Some people just have a "mind" for trading. This is the closest thing you'll get to the "Holy Grail," which, obviously, doesn't exist.
Edit: There is also one more VERY important aspect of trading a trader needs to know -- what type of market are we in? The answer to that is based on a measure of volatility. This is my MOST valuable tool. I measure the rate of change, or volatility relentlessly. In brief, in a very high volatile market (2007/2008) I will fade and average down into an outlier and in a very mild volatile market (the beginning of this year) I will buy and average up into an outlier because it tends develop a new regression channel, which can include many more outliers. We are currently in a medium volatile market, which is very difficult to trade, but usually requires going with a move rather than against it. Volatility also has to be measured in all time frames and you have to know which results are most relevant to your trading strategy -- i.e. if you trade the 1's (which I do) the most relevant measure of volatility is on the 5-min bars. Other time periods are important but the 5's are golden for me on an intra-day basis.
What fun trading is
You can type til your fingers bleed and the vast majority of ET will proclaim what I great book Edwards and Magee is. It actually is a terrific book but do the strategies in the book lead to profitability? Umm...no.
To the best of my recollection here is what I recently wrote to a PM I received, plus a few extra tid bits.
I use TA and Statistical Analysis, which includes automated data systems that crunch numbers for things like Time Series Analysis, Regression Analysis, Outlier Analysis, and such, but there is one element that any type of analysis cannot detect and that is the human element of "just knowing," which is based on years of watching the market move and an innate ability to read that movement and make decisions that are based on acquired or innate talent. Some people just have a "mind" for trading. This is the closest thing you'll get to the "Holy Grail," which, obviously, doesn't exist.
Edit: There is also one more VERY important aspect of trading a trader needs to know -- what type of market are we in? The answer to that is based on a measure of volatility. This is my MOST valuable tool. I measure the rate of change, or volatility relentlessly. In brief, in a very high volatile market (2007/2008) I will fade and average down into an outlier and in a very mild volatile market (the beginning of this year) I will buy and average up into an outlier because it tends develop a new regression channel, which can include many more outliers. We are currently in a medium volatile market, which is very difficult to trade, but usually requires going with a move rather than against it. Volatility also has to be measured in all time frames and you have to know which results are most relevant to your trading strategy -- i.e. if you trade the 1's (which I do) the most relevant measure of volatility is on the 5-min bars. Other time periods are important but the 5's are golden for me on an intra-day basis.
What fun trading is