On previous friday the high got taken out and still failed.
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=3589550#post3589550
Why does TA not work (for you)?
- Thread starter Xspurt
- Start date
On previous friday the high got taken out and still failed.
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=3589550#post3589550
Oily, Trade to the upside failure is market telling you something?
lol, so what's going on here someone trying to sell TA courses?
Only one way to prove it. Call trades w/ stops for a few years or show some blotters or P/L every week or month. I won't hold my breath... a few calls ain't gonna work.
Indeed, hindsight TA is worthless, it could have played out different ways depending on info and variables outside of TA. But of course, they can curve fit some bs another way.
Only one way to prove it. Call trades w/ stops for a few years or show some blotters or P/L every week or month. I won't hold my breath... a few calls ain't gonna work.
Indeed, hindsight TA is worthless, it could have played out different ways depending on info and variables outside of TA. But of course, they can curve fit some bs another way.
They can sell all the courses on Technical analysis ,they can't give you intuition ,an edge ,experience or trader psyche(they can't rewire your brain ).What ever is gained by technical anylysis roulette wheel studies , is more than lost on other factors.
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?threadid=245340
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=236978
Oily, +1
To share some of my own experiences with TA, and more specifically with indicators:
As an observation I notice that most people (as appears also in the examples above here) use a single timeframe and watch for their signal there - whatever that signal may be. This is trading without looking at the larger timeframe(s) context.
I've read a couple of times this notion that an entry is sort of like a coin flip, having a 50% chance of being right. (whatever "right" is with trading, but that's another story)
Assume you take your long and short signals with a 50% hitrate of a 5-min chart. This will provide winners and loosers. (I don't like the term "hitrate", because I don't believe it's the key to being succesfull at trading, but that's another story too
)
If you would add to your view also a 15-min and an hourly chart, you might notice that if the 15-min and hourly chart are trending up, it might not be a great idea to take those short signals on your 5min chart.
This can already be a first way to get your hitrate up, or decrease the number of losing trades.
Imagine you would jump and watch the soil under your feet. Suddenly you would jump 3 times as far and high. Looking at the soil leaves you clueless how that suddenly happened. Looking at the bigger picture, you might notice you're on the moon instead of earth with different gravity rules.
It's similar with trading. Your entry can have different results depending on the bigger context environment. So loose that keyhole view and add a few timeframes extra and see if behaviour makes more sense to you now.
And then there's the issue of "I have backtested all indicators and none work..."
I wonder if they tested that with different timeframes. But nevertheless, this approach is futile. It's the search to a "get me rich quick" button, but it does not give the trader in any way a feeling with price movement or how the market operates. And I noticed it above with the mentioning of the black swan movemens intraday which were nothing more then "normal" movements after some important news came out.
There are other ways to tackle (get to know) indicators too. You could stick to just one and try to get the most out of it.
Personally I'm a big fan of stochastics in a multitimeframe environment. I use it to determine if there is a trend , what the trend is, what the strength of the trend is. To see if we are grinding up/down. To check if I expect the trend to continue or to reverse etc.
But it required some dedication to stick with this one indicator. That is expressed in months/years not in minutes/hours. So it always gets a smile on my face when somebody says he tested and indicator for a couple of hours, maybe days even and then concludes it doesn't "work"
So don't give up too quick on that. Trading is a job that comes with failure, learning and experience. Just like anything else in life, job or sports or hobby...
That's it for my yearly post here
Xspurt, I must admire you for jumping into this snakepit once more. But I guess if one or two can see the light, it might be worth it.
JP
As an observation I notice that most people (as appears also in the examples above here) use a single timeframe and watch for their signal there - whatever that signal may be. This is trading without looking at the larger timeframe(s) context.
I've read a couple of times this notion that an entry is sort of like a coin flip, having a 50% chance of being right. (whatever "right" is with trading, but that's another story)
Assume you take your long and short signals with a 50% hitrate of a 5-min chart. This will provide winners and loosers. (I don't like the term "hitrate", because I don't believe it's the key to being succesfull at trading, but that's another story too
)If you would add to your view also a 15-min and an hourly chart, you might notice that if the 15-min and hourly chart are trending up, it might not be a great idea to take those short signals on your 5min chart.
This can already be a first way to get your hitrate up, or decrease the number of losing trades.
Imagine you would jump and watch the soil under your feet. Suddenly you would jump 3 times as far and high. Looking at the soil leaves you clueless how that suddenly happened. Looking at the bigger picture, you might notice you're on the moon instead of earth with different gravity rules.
It's similar with trading. Your entry can have different results depending on the bigger context environment. So loose that keyhole view and add a few timeframes extra and see if behaviour makes more sense to you now.
And then there's the issue of "I have backtested all indicators and none work..."
I wonder if they tested that with different timeframes. But nevertheless, this approach is futile. It's the search to a "get me rich quick" button, but it does not give the trader in any way a feeling with price movement or how the market operates. And I noticed it above with the mentioning of the black swan movemens intraday which were nothing more then "normal" movements after some important news came out.
There are other ways to tackle (get to know) indicators too. You could stick to just one and try to get the most out of it.
Personally I'm a big fan of stochastics in a multitimeframe environment. I use it to determine if there is a trend , what the trend is, what the strength of the trend is. To see if we are grinding up/down. To check if I expect the trend to continue or to reverse etc.
But it required some dedication to stick with this one indicator. That is expressed in months/years not in minutes/hours. So it always gets a smile on my face when somebody says he tested and indicator for a couple of hours, maybe days even and then concludes it doesn't "work"
So don't give up too quick on that. Trading is a job that comes with failure, learning and experience. Just like anything else in life, job or sports or hobby...
That's it for my yearly post here
Xspurt, I must admire you for jumping into this snakepit once more. But I guess if one or two can see the light, it might be worth it.
JP
Quote from jamespond:
To share some of my own experiences with TA, and more specifically with indicators:
As an observation I notice that most people (as appears also in the examples above here) use a single timeframe and watch for their signal there - whatever that signal may be. This is trading without looking at the larger timeframe(s) context.
I've read a couple of times this notion that an entry is sort of like a coin flip, having a 50% chance of being right. (whatever "right" is with trading, but that's another story)
Assume you take your long and short signals with a 50% hitrate of a 5-min chart. This will provide winners and loosers. (I don't like the term "hitrate", because I don't believe it's the key to being succesfull at trading, but that's another story too
If you would add to your view also a 15-min and an hourly chart, you might notice that if the 15-min and hourly chart are trending up, it might not be a great idea to take those short signals on your 5min chart.
This can already be a first way to get your hitrate up, or decrease the number of losing trades.
Imagine you would jump and watch the soil under your feet. Suddenly you would jump 3 times as far and high. Looking at the soil leaves you clueless how that suddenly happened. Looking at the bigger picture, you might notice you're on the moon instead of earth with different gravity rules.
It's similar with trading. Your entry can have different results depending on the bigger context environment. So loose that keyhole view and add a few timeframes extra and see if behaviour makes more sense to you now.
And then there's the issue of "I have backtested all indicators and none work..."
I wonder if they tested that with different timeframes. But nevertheless, this approach is futile. It's the search to a "get me rich quick" button, but it does not give the trader in any way a feeling with price movement or how the market operates. And I noticed it above with the mentioning of the black swan movemens intraday which were nothing more then "normal" movements after some important news came out.
There are other ways to tackle (get to know) indicators too. You could stick to just one and try to get the most out of it.
Personally I'm a big fan of stochastics in a multitimeframe environment. I use it to determine if there is a trend , what the trend is, what the strength of the trend is. To see if we are grinding up/down. To check if I expect the trend to continue or to reverse etc.
But it required some dedication to stick with this one indicator. That is expressed in months/years not in minutes/hours. So it always gets a smile on my face when somebody says he tested and indicator for a couple of hours, maybe days even and then concludes it doesn't "work"
So don't give up too quick on that. Trading is a job that comes with failure, learning and experience. Just like anything else in life, job or sports or hobby...
That's it for my yearly post here
Xspurt, I must admire you for jumping into this snakepit once more. But I guess if one or two can see the light, it might be worth it.
JP
Don't know where Baron's 2 post genuises turn up from , it is become Elitetradergate.
Clueless fuckin idiots can back test phsyche,edge ,experience, intuition ,emotions ,losing streak rebuttals ,revenge trading ,fear ,greed , mistakes, context etc.
This is dumber than dumb.
lol.......You and Freak are blind.
Stop talking. Start listening. Xspurt's reply is KEY to what you're wondering.
Gawd, I'm such a sucker for TA threads, especially if Xspurt or cornixforex are involved. I'm really gonna try not to make 7000 more posts here...
Friday, chop? Where? Certainly not for anyone day trading the ES. The action on a 5-min chart leading into the open was as clearly defined a trend as it gets and that clearly defined (strong) trend continued from the open without an intraday short signal until 3:25pm ET.
A repeatable pattern is exploitable. That's how profitable traders make a living trading. It doesn't matter whether the patterns are chart-based (technical), flow-based ("tape-reading"), relationship-based (spreads), or moon-based, a profitable plan can be developed from any pattern that repeats and produces one particular reaction more often than other reactions.
The charts you posted show many clean tradable setups based on technical price action. You just have no clue how to trade this way.
When my son was four years old he had no clue how to read. If he looked at words on a page it was just a bunch of random stuff. For him, there was no value in books. He trusted the adults who told him he could learn to identify repeatable patterns and obtain great value from that skill. It wasn't long before he could read adventure stories, learn about cars, dinosaurs, and insects. Within a few years he learned to use repeatable, exploitable patterns to program bots that accumulated power for characters in a popular on-line game and sold the program to other users for $150 each.
I offered to mentor you in intraday technical price action trading, but you declined on two occasions and I've concluded that you must derive far more profit from arguing than from trading