Why does TA not work (for you)?

Quote from oilfxpro:

Here are more t/a failures in an up trending day .Please don't give you should have done this or that or any hindsight ballooney.
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Okay this is not what you should have done, but others might want to consider the validity of what I say.

You have a downward triangle favoring a break out to the upside and you get this. The target on this set up is the width of the wide end of the triangle and it not only fulfills this projection but gives a further 100%. This successful breakout and run is what you term a failure.

here's Babypips explaining this...

http://www.babypips.com/school/triangles.html

It is not good for PA to continue towards the point of a triangle as it tends to dissipate the energy so again this behaves as a trader would hope for. Having said that it is not a great quality triangle as per the previous example I gave in this thread.

Next you correctly note the false breakout and return. This is a traders dream as per the posts of RedTank and CornixForex. RedTank would say he doesn't trust an unbroken line. This type of event often happens at major reversals and this is one of those events.

Here's a Babypips example...

http://www.babypips.com/school/how-to-trade-fakeouts.html

This is like basic TA 101

Then we get a break of the lows with you your MA showing a strong trend in force and that failure of support is exactly what a trader wants from a major top formation.
 
Quote from oilfxpro:

You can see in the rectangle ,resistance line and circles how price behaves on different occasions.Your personal decision making is based on ego ,knowledge and bias and is subjective , so it has no relevance to what the road map shows.

Somebody went short at resistance line in middle and lost but he made profit on another occasion , another went long and made profit but lost many times prior at resistance line.Even the road map is not clear.If you have a look at up trend line on far right , it gets broken and weeds out tight stops.:D

This shows a 50 /50 coin toss for t/a , unless you go to the 1 minute time frame and enter with small stops and run your profits which is how you will make money .
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Most of this is cleared up by the Babypips examples. The mid line shows clear price rejection or a fake break and the trend line signals are as before.

There is one major problem on these charts and that is all the candles are the same color so there is no PA signals. The most important part of TA for most of us who use TA is the price action. Missing PA Signals and trading Breakouts in a different way from anyone who Google's basic TA is going to get you a very strange set of results.

I'd agree with you this is showing TA doesn't work, but it's not TA as we know it.
 
as I said before, I think TA definitely has it's place... how you use it is up to you, but if you're just using TA, you will get blown out eventually IMO.. especially on small timeframes.

the red bar that blew out stops was ECB press conference. Markets are thin/illiquid during these times. Outcomes are unsure, limits get removed, positions adjusted. It's easy for price to be thrown around.

You should be paying attention to news and more important fundamental drivers, structure of markets, correlations/relationships, etc as well. TA will never be above that.
 

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Quote from Xspurt:

Okay this is not what you should have done, but others might want to consider the validity of what I say.

You have a downward triangle favoring a break out to the upside and you get this. The target on this set up is the width of the wide end of the triangle and it not only fulfills this projection but gives a further 100%. This successful breakout and run is what you term a failure.

here's Babypips explaining this...

http://www.babypips.com/school/triangles.html

It is not good for PA to continue towards the point of a triangle as it tends to dissipate the energy so again this behaves as a trader would hope for. Having said that it is not a great quality triangle as per the previous example I gave in this thread.

Next you correctly note the false breakout and return. This is a traders dream as per the posts of RedTank and CornixForex. RedTank would say he doesn't trust an unbroken line. This type of event often happens at major reversals and this is one of those events.

Here's a Babypips example...

http://www.babypips.com/school/how-to-trade-fakeouts.html

This is like basic TA 101

Then we get a break of the lows with you your MA showing a strong trend in force and that failure of support is exactly what a trader wants from a major top formation.
More...

The successful breakout run which fails is what many traders term a trend continuation failure , price settles above resistance and becomes support ,and finally breaks down below a support.

Not many traders are looking for a reversal at that point.Hindsight is everything after the event , because most live traders would position for a pull back/retracement with a bullish bar, only to lose their trousers

There are two views here , one trader looking to trade above support (resistance which has become support on a trending day)and another waiting for breakdown and counter trend trade.Another 50/50 situation , but with reversals being successfull only 33 % of the time , a clear failure of t/a.
 
We reverting back to the same old crap, analyzing the past to prove it right.

Readers want to see you analyzing the present and calling the future.

If it can be done daytrading, it can be done on a daily chart.

Let's see it done, enough history lessons, its all been written a million times.
 
I agree with FON,lets get back to intraday swans.Xspurt,if you don`t mind to get back to the mid frequency trading during RTH,as i believe it is what the most ET traders are interested in.How to predict/avoid/anticipate intraswans,is the topic most interesting to many readers.It is the place where TA stops working for many.
 
Quote from FreakofNature:

We reverting back to the same old crap, analyzing the past to prove it right.

Readers want to see you analyzing the present and calling the future.

If it can be done daytrading, it can be done on a daily chart.

Let's see it done, enough history lessons, its all been written a million times.
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I got clobbered on those two days , but made it back the following day.The hindsight gurus "would have traded it this way" but if you traded it their way and it failed , then their hindsight trades "would have traded the other way"

Now put your trousers on and make live advance calls in a journal , with explanations.
 
FON, Exactly. In hindsite it is always easy to see the chop area. In realtime, on Friday if a trade up failed, then that is the first sign of a starting range/chop. Unless that failed high is taken out, then not more long trades. Just my way.
 

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