Why does TA not work (for you)?

Quote from hoodooman:

I know exactly what you are talking about. You are just like 99% of the population. You want something for nothing and and if I showed you the strategy, then you'ed think that I was a stupid ass for giving it to you.

Meanwhile mediocrity marches on and nice guys finish last.

regards
hoodooman:D
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And nothing continues to be talked up as though it's something.

Crazy world.
 
Quote from ocean5:

i was trading FDAX - European session 45 min after the opening.TF was 8 minute .I was out with loss by 7 or 8 am EST,as far as i remember...
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Do you use any other time frames or are you only using an 8 min "keyhole" view of the market?

If you can't read the daily signal then the 4hr should be clearer and the 2 hr and 60min even clearer that PA was being driven up. This is going to cause a trend in your 8min charts so if you can read the bigger naked PA context then you will understand the reason for the momentum in the 8m.

Trading short would clearly be counter trend, but if you don't see these signals then the power of the uptrend will catch you out.

This was more telegraphed than black swan. Try adding the floor trader moving averages for trends and pull backs and see if that helps on the shorter time frames (9 plus 18 ema)
 
Xspurt,

When I look at the market now I gravitate towards incongruent formations, for example similar highs accompanied by higher lows. The result is a triangle that may be the beginning of a box. This gives me clear bullish/bearish lines but leaves 1. Accuracy of my projections in play and, 2. True intent of price (e.g. dropping book to accumulate or selloff - this can sometimes be seen by how it unfolds sequentially). Curious your thoughts on this approach. Thanks.

BD
 
Quote from BobbiDigital:

Xspurt,

When I look at the market now I gravitate towards incongruent formations, for example similar highs accompanied by higher lows. The result is a triangle that may be the beginning of a box. This gives me clear bullish/bearish lines but leaves 1. Accuracy of my projections in play and, 2. True intent of price (e.g. dropping book to accumulate or selloff - this can sometimes be seen by how it unfolds sequentially). Curious your thoughts on this approach. Thanks.

BD [/QUOTE

Patterns always have been and always will be an important guide for a large group of traders, so it sure does pay to keep an eye on pattern formation.

Patterns can form within larger patterns and as you stated can morph into a different shape. Often you can predict the breakout direction from a combination of larger time frame pressure and the expected break out direction (e.g. rising wedge = downward break).

Part of my daily preparation is looking across the time frames for current patterns or potential formations. I'd consider your approach to be an important part of good TA reading.
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At least someone else on this forum knows their stuff! :cool:

"Patterns can form within larger patterns and as you stated can morph into a different shape. Often you can predict the breakout direction from a combination of larger time frame pressure"


So, I went over my math and solved next weeks short setup. Who is going to short 1410 or 1406 with me? Woo...
 
Ocean!!! I solved your problem...

Your issue is your not trading the full fractal/range.

If your going to hold overnight you have to do 3-5 day swing trades minimum... There is no other way around it. The odds are against you otherwise. You have to hold for entire trade cycles.
 
TA doesn't work for trading. It's a descriptive not predictive tool that can be used to time entries AFTER the price drivers are understood for your particular trade- in other words, TA folks are on the wrong path. Patterns don't repeat in an xploitable fashion-- when trading stocks study the book prior to the trades executing-- there is value here. Looking at the past charts is dangerous mental masterbation that doesn't end well.
 
Quote from SamGold:

1-Post your 2011 year 1040 if you are US citizen or resident (we both know you are), and a broker run of all your trades since January 1, 2012 till yesterday (preferibly also load the results in EXCEL so we can chart your equity day-by-day).

How do we know you aren't a hindsight clown, as you have clearly demonstrated to be countless times in the past?.

If you post yours I'll post mine, but I'm not a US resident or citizen.

Put up or not. Your choice.

How's yoohoo doing, full moon was 2 days ago, is he out of the psychiatric ward for the weekend yet?.
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Price drivers... eh surf?. What a concept.
 
Quote from marketsurfer:

TA doesn't work for trading. It's a descriptive not predictive tool that can be used to time entries AFTER the price drivers are understood for your particular trade- in other words, TA folks are on the wrong path. Patterns don't repeat in an xploitable fashion-- when trading stocks study the book prior to the trades executing-- there is value here. Looking at the past charts is dangerous mental masterbation that doesn't end well.
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If you are using TA to time an entry, that sounds like working TA to me. In fact I thought that what TA was all about, when to get in and out of the market rather than looking at past charts. Perhaps I am taking you up wrong :confused:

Anything to do with an entry is predictive: if it is not then you are taking a random chance. So if you are using TA to time an entry how is TA not predictive?
 
Quote from Xspurt:

If you are using TA to time an entry, that sounds like working TA to me. In fact I thought that what TA was all about, when to get in and out of the market rather than looking at past charts. Perhaps I am taking you up wrong :confused:

Anything to do with an entry is predictive: if it is not then you are taking a random chance. So if you are using TA to time an entry how is TA not predictive?
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No, the directional bias is preset without regard to past price action --- I know my entry will be long or short without looking at past charts--- TA simply used to drill down into timing when to enter not what direction. It's not really needed at all. But it may help so I use it in this manner. Determining directinal bias based on TA is faulty logic and not based on reality.
 
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