Why does TA not work (for you)?

Trading is very simple and all traders could be profitable , it is as easy as that.The problem is we we try to complicate life with t/a .

None of the trading educators know how simple it is , they complicate it with snake oil and 1,000 page documents,

I could give you a two day training course and a two page document with simple t/a , if you follow it , you will always end up profitable on a monthly basis.How many trading educators can do that ?If any of you could , you would be trading , not educating others with snake oil.
 
Quote from ocean5:

Take this yesterday`s straight up move,for example.

The prior to it was the down move,but then there was retraces down the road so anyone could scale into and get out.But how about the up move on Friday(attached),such moves when the price is never get back?There wasn`t any single meaningful retrace,and that was what kills me everytime.That`s my problem.
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Thanks for the chart Ocean. This is a push up right from the open to catch up on the Globex news traders. This is not a black swan event but something that traders experience all the time. If you trade Fx there are usually a bunch of news releases every day and some of them are red flagged as big market movers. These are never classed as black swans but are daily routine trading events.

If you have a trend day there is no real reason for the market to pull back so the key is to get in as early as possible. I posted a thread on ET under the username yoohoo on how to trade when there was a full moon (Trading the Moon) and this is another prime example of how a pull back into a full moon cycle can give a big reversal.

In simple TA terms, the daily chart had given a Key Reversal signal on a popular Fib level so you were warned that this reversal could be setting up. The aggressive signal is a break above the high, but the Globex players were already all over this so you have to play catch up if you only see regular hours charts.

If you missed Globex then one popular signal is to mark the high and low of the first 5 min bar and trade longs above and short below so you'd take that entry.

There is also a quality entry on the 1m chart on the 1st pull back on that time frame.

Nothing unusual here :)
 
Quote from oilfxpro:

Trading is very simple and all traders could be profitable , it is as easy as that.The problem is we we try to complicate life with t/a .

None of the trading educators know how simple it is , they complicate it with snake oil and 1,000 page documents,

I could give you a two day training course and a two page document with simple t/a , if you follow it , you will always end up profitable on a monthly basis.How many trading educators can do that ?If any of you could , you would be trading , not educating others with snake oil.
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I hope that as a result of this thread many will experience the new birth and radical change of heart that oily has. A few days back he believed day trading was impossible and TA was useless but now he champions both.

Kudos to you oilfxpro.
 
Quote from Rationalize:

Answering the TA question is very simple.

1. Get a data set.

2. Run many TA indicators against the dataset.

3. Record P/L.

4. Change parameters & goto 1.

Anyone who has done this exhaustively, and seen the pathetic results produced, quickly learns that TA pundits are either morons, degenerate gamblers, or con men selling systems to moronic degenerate gamblers.

No offence intended. Get help.
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Thanks Rationalize. Indeed this has been done many times by universities who have tasked naive students with the job of back testing indicators and concluded non of them work.

It certainly proves that there are morons using TA. Someone help me on this. If I get a free TA charting service and just take the indicator crosses through 20 and 80 - it's gonna make me rich, won't it?

That means I can learn TA in about 60 seconds and then I can go CNBC.

I just don't quite know how to respond to anyone let lose with dataset and a computer that thinks this has anything to do with learning TA. But it you ever hear of any telling you they understand TA from this approach you'll know who has been conned :)

(Don't tell them, but you can trade TA without indicators. In fact many insist this is the only way to trade with TA.)
 
Quote from Xspurt:

There is a constant supply of threads that either show confusion about how to use TA or state emphatically ...

1) TA doesn't work

2) Day Trading doesn't work (which is really saying no form of analysis works intraday, so intraday set ups are somehow different from Eod of Day set ups

3) Their TA method used to work but the market has changed so TA doesn't work now

4) TA only works in hindsight

5) Add your reasoning.
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How do you define TA? If you look at all the traditional TA indicators, such as moving averages, "stochastic", candle patterns, price action and so on, it's easy to show (and has been done several times) that they do not work. Except for the authors of some books and software, who get a good income through them.

However if you define TA as a general way to analyze price data with somewhat more intelligent methods, find autocorrelations, and trade them with an automated algorithm, then you can see that it obviously works and is profitable. Many people, me included, earn a living with that.

So the question is not if TA works or not, the question is just how to avoid beginner's traps and develop a profitable TA method.
 
Quote from Xspurt:

Thanks for the chart Ocean. This is a push up right from the open to catch up on the Globex news traders. This is not a black swan event but something that traders experience all the time. If you trade Fx there are usually a bunch of news releases every day and some of them are red flagged as big market movers. These are never classed as black swans but are daily routine trading events.

If you have a trend day there is no real reason for the market to pull back so the key is to get in as early as possible. I posted a thread on ET under the username yoohoo on how to trade when there was a full moon (Trading the Moon) and this is another prime example of how a pull back into a full moon cycle can give a big reversal.

In simple TA terms, the daily chart had given a Key Reversal signal on a popular Fib level so you were warned that this reversal could be setting up. The aggressive signal is a break above the high, but the Globex players were already all over this so you have to play catch up if you only see regular hours charts.

If you missed Globex then one popular signal is to mark the high and low of the first 5 min bar and trade longs above and short below so you'd take that entry.

There is also a quality entry on the 1m chart on the 1st pull back on that time frame.

Nothing unusual here :)
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I didn`t miss the move,but went short instead as,in simple TA terms, the price was inside the downchannel after the down move on the previous day.The price touched Right trend line and reversed,volume confirmed the down move,but then it reversed again and shoot up like there was no tomorrow.Usually you realise that it is a trendy day,after you are already underwater.There is no way to say it in advance.(Please don`t say it was the Moon...)You have to take huge loss in a situation like this.The news source is not often reliable as you may know - i`ve seen time and againg the different market behavior on the same news.As for the Moon,Mars and other lokas,it`s definitely a rare occurance,that hardly deserves an attention.Besides,everything is recorded in the chart,as they say.I can only agree with the higher timeframe for a confirmation.Fibs,MurrayLines,S/R lines-is a junk and excessive information for daytrading.

It was a quality enter on the 1 min chart you say?But how do you know you should hold through entire session?How do you know you shouldn`t go short on the first sign of the reversal(isn`t the signals to reverse the same on a trendy or a choppy day,from the 1 min chart??)?What part of TA says you should or you shouldn`t?On the regular trading day,do you react or anticipate mostly?

Thanks in advance for your answers.
 
Quote from Xspurt:

I know it is virtually impossible to convince a cynic to change their mind on anything,... then many others can benefit.
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1-Post your 2011 year 1040 if you are US citizen or resident (we both know you are), and a broker run of all your trades since January 1, 2012 till yesterday (preferiby also load the results in EXCEL so we can chart your equity day-by-day).

How do we know you aren't a hindsight clown, as you have clearly demonstrated to be countless times in the past?.

If you post yours I'll post mine, but I'm not a US resident or citizen.

Put up or not. Your choice.

How's yoohoo doing, full moon was 2 days ago, is he out of the psychiatric ward for the weekend yet?.
 
Study up on Taylor sequences ocean5... This market is declining in sequence duration. The market spends about the same amount of time falling as it does rising when going sideways. If it's in an uptrend it spends more time rising than falling. Downtrend... More time falling than rising.

Not sure if the next short setup is Monday or Tuesday... Meh, need to get more momentum readings and see some Monday price action.

It was also kinda obvious we were testing the 50% retrace...

After five five day rallies in a row it was definitely time for the sequences to start being varied a bit because people were starting to catch on.


Nobody cared too much about the jobs report. The big catalyst was the euro breakout and the massive rally in italy/spain approaching 8%. Big boys know bond buys are coming and it's time for the EU rally to kick off.
 

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Quote from jcl:

How do you define TA? If you look at all the traditional TA indicators, such as moving averages, "stochastic", candle patterns, price action and so on, it's easy to show (and has been done several times) that they do not work. Except for the authors of some books and software, who get a good income through them.

However if you define TA as a general way to analyze price data with somewhat more intelligent methods, find autocorrelations, and trade them with an automated algorithm, then you can see that it obviously works and is profitable. Many people, me included, earn a living with that.

So the question is not if TA works or not, the question is just how to avoid beginner's traps and develop a profitable TA method.
More...

Thanks jcl. Agreed on beginners mistakes and that is what this thread is mainly about.
 
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