Why does TA not work (for you)?

[Xspurt]

There is a constant supply of threads that either show confusion about how to use TA or state emphatically ...

1) TA doesn't work

2) Day Trading doesn't work (which is really saying no form of analysis works intraday, so intraday set ups are somehow different from Eod of Day set ups

3) Their TA method used to work but the market has changed so TA doesn't work now

4) TA only works in hindsight

5) Add your reasoning

This is a thread that that intends to offer...

1) Some help to those who struggle with TA

2) An opportunity for intelligent discussion for the skeptics who have tried TA and been disappointed

3) An equal forum for the cynics to air their views provided they prove their point by posting TA charting failures so we can see if there is a genuine problem and perhaps a solution.

I don't mind critics of TA, in fact I want their contribution and they are very welcome so long as they substantiate their reasoning with chart examples of TA failures and stick to the point of the thread.

I don't know everything about TA but I have been using it for almost 30 yrs and I have developed a lot of my own techniques so it is my take on TA. There will be other excellent TA users who will have a different approach and I welcome their contribution.

Over 3 decades I have trained about 10 traders and all but 2 of them had many years trading experience, but I have never met a trader who didn't benefit from learning more about TA. The reason for posting this thread is that some experienced traders shy away from techniques that others deem essential and that is the nature of this game: TA is a vast storehouse of knowledge that few dig deep into.

I have limited time but I will do what I can to offer some help to friend and foe alike, for taking a stand on TA brings both camps to the door. So hows about instead of the usual ET bitch-fest, let's deal with the real problems on TA and look to see if there is a solution that helps your trading.

Mods can you please keep this thread on topic. Critics, cynics and skeptics are welcome so long as they post their charts to demonstrate why TA does not work.

I know it is virtually impossible to convince a cynic to change their mind on anything, but if they substantiate from a chart how they have concluded after pains taking research why TA cannot work, then many others can benefit.

 

[ocean5]

B/C i`m experimenting and do not do what i should do.When i do what i have to do,it works clockwork!Whay am i such a shithead...It` s the one aspect.Another aspect is the so called systemic risk,i.e. network outage,your bad mood(the neighbor is laughin,the water is dripping,gf is screaming like a batch),flash crash 'glitches',brokers blow ups,etc...So there are a lot of different risks involved.You need to slip up only once!Very risky and unreliable business.

 

[FreakofNature]

Here we go, on to fishing for customers without being a sponsor Part X.

 

[Xspurt]

Quote from ocean5:

B/C i`m experimenting and do not do what i should do.When i do what i have to do,it works clockwork!Whay am i such a shithead...It` s the one aspect.Another aspect is the so called systemic risk,i.e. network outage,your bad mood(the neighbor is laughin,the water is dripping,gf is screaming like a batch),flash crash 'glitches',brokers blow ups,etc...So there are a lot of different risks involved.You need to slip up only once!Very risky and unreliable business.

Good points. Once you learn a working technique you have to practice it in sim trading until your are totally convinced. Then you have to overcome the emotions in live trading. If you have a high probability trade then it is lower impact on the emotions than if you have a lower success rate set up that relies rely on bigger runs.

As far as black swan events are concerned, thankfully we don't experience them very often and they are not a cause of TA not working.

 

[Xspurt]

Quote from FreakofNature:

Here we go, on to fishing for customers without being a sponsor Part X.

Hi Freak, you are a great example of someone who makes endless posts on how TA can't work. Now's you big chance to substantiate your position and show us how you have used PA to prove it only works in hindsight etc., etc.

Show us your chart set ups that only are visible after the event and how you applied your TA knowledge and let's see if we can get something working for you and I promise not to charge you

You seem to be someone who is burned off with TA but would like to make it work but you have fallen into the TA Can't Work camp. There is a reason for that so let's see the technical reasons why you arrived at that personal conclusion to the degree that you tell everyone else that TA can't work.

Please post TA chart examples of your non-working or hindsight-only set ups to prove your viewpoint please. I'll try and convince you that there is a better way to set up the trade.

 

[ocean5]

Quote from Xspurt:

Good points. Once you learn a working technique you have to practice it in sim trading until your are totally convinced. Then you have to overcome the emotions in live trading. If you have a high probability trade then it is lower impact on the emotions than if you have a lower success rate set up that relies rely on bigger runs.

As far as black swan events are concerned, thankfully we don't experience them very often and they are not a cause of TA not working.

Hi Xspurt, i overcame emotions long ago and it is not my problem.The thing that i couldn`t leran as of yet,is how to handle those so called Black Swans,they catch me evry time,there was not a single Black Swan that didn`t catch me.I can make money all day long until the swan comes up.This is my first and last problem by this time.I believe i need to automate this event somehow...

How do you personally handle the Swans? Couldn`t agree that this type of events do not happen often,though.

 

[Xspurt]

Quote from ocean5:

Hi Xspurt, i overcame emotions long ago and it is not my problem.The thing that i couldn`t leran as of yet,is how to handle those so called Black Swans,they catch me evry time,there was not a single Black Swan that didn`t catch me.I can make money all day long until the swan comes up.This is my first and last problem by this time.I believe i need to automate this event somehow...

How do you personally handle the Swans? Couldn`t agree that this type of events do not happen often,though.

Can you give me examples of black swan events that have caught you out and the time frame of your trades? These should be very rare events indeed so I'm interested in your experience.

If you copied the charts post them but I understand if you don't have charts now.

 

[ocean5]

Quote from Xspurt:

Can you give me examples of black swan events that have caught you out and the time frame of your trades? These should be very rare events indeed so I'm interested in your experience.

If you copied the charts post them but I understand if you don't have charts now.

Take this yesterday`s straight up move,for example.

The prior to it was the down move,but then there was retraces down the road so anyone could scale into and get out.But how about the up move on Friday(attached),such moves when the price is never get back?There wasn`t any single meaningful retrace,and that was what kills me everytime.That`s my problem.

 

[FreakofNature]

Most of the up-move happened during NFP, once the market opened, it had some follow up but then became tortilla chips, so when you are actually able to buy, the market drifts sideways, and in most instances takes your stop out unless you use high risk.

Bleh.

My gripe Xspurt is that everyone is an expert of the past, in hindsight everyone is King, when its time to put ass on the line by making bold, clear, non ambiguous calls, everyone either cheats someway somehow or claims secrecy of techniques.

Things like you should have done this, or should have done that, after everything has occurred, well one gets "ticked", no pun intended.

The vast majority of traders consistently lose, it can't be all bad discipline.

Here's my challenge to you, if TA is really that good, how about some CLEAR, NON AMBIGUOUS, TIMELY SWING CALLS, WITH CLEAR STOPS AND TARGETS ?

You up for it ? We not talking scalping, just swing, so it cannot possibly be that time consuming for a TA expert like yourself, so what do you say, you up for it ?

You demonstrate here great consistency without ambiguity, and I will bow out and apologize for any doubt in the past and become a TA devotee.

 

[Rationalize]

Quote from Xspurt:

There is a constant supply of threads that either show confusion about how to use TA or state emphatically ...

1) TA doesn't work

2) Day Trading doesn't work (which is really saying no form of analysis works intraday, so intraday set ups are somehow different from Eod of Day set ups

3) Their TA method used to work but the market has changed so TA doesn't work now

4) TA only works in hindsight

5) Add your reasoning

This is a thread that that intends to offer...

1) Some help to those who struggle with TA

2) An opportunity for intelligent discussion for the skeptics who have tried TA and been disappointed

3) An equal forum for the cynics to air their views provided they prove their point by posting TA charting failures so we can see if there is a genuine problem and perhaps a solution.

I don't mind critics of TA, in fact I want their contribution and they are very welcome so long as they substantiate their reasoning with chart examples of TA failures and stick to the point of the thread.

I don't know everything about TA but I have been using it for almost 30 yrs and I have developed a lot of my own techniques so it is my take on TA. There will be other excellent TA users who will have a different approach and I welcome their contribution.

Over 3 decades I have trained about 10 traders and all but 2 of them had many years trading experience, but I have never met a trader who didn't benefit from learning more about TA. The reason for posting this thread is that some experienced traders shy away from techniques that others deem essential and that is the nature of this game: TA is a vast storehouse of knowledge that few dig deep into.

I have limited time but I will do what I can to offer some help to friend and foe alike, for taking a stand on TA brings both camps to the door. So hows about instead of the usual ET bitch-fest, let's deal with the real problems on TA and look to see if there is a solution that helps your trading.

Mods can you please keep this thread on topic. Critics, cynics and skeptics are welcome so long as they post their charts to demonstrate why TA does not work.

I know it is virtually impossible to convince a cynic to change their mind on anything, but if they substantiate from a chart how they have concluded after pains taking research why TA cannot work, then many others can benefit.

Answering the TA question is very simple.

1. Get a data set.

2. Run many TA indicators against the dataset.

3. Record P/L.

4. Change parameters & goto 1.

Anyone who has done this exhaustively, and seen the pathetic results produced, quickly learns that TA pundits are either morons, degenerate gamblers, or con men selling systems to moronic degenerate gamblers.

No offence intended. Get help.