Why does TA not work (for you)?

Quote from marketsurfer:

You are correct. I don't make any claims regarding price driver other than the fact it anticipates trades based on information rather than price.
Surf

yes, you did make claim. you said this in your special situation journal.

'Obviously not every entry will be a winner but every entry will have strong odds of success and a huge positive expectancy'

how do you know it's strong odds? and huge positive expectancy? you don't have significant sample size to make claims. sounds like buying a falling knife and praying it goes up.
 
Quote from NoDoji:

Five people interpreting a chart differently doesn't invalidate technical price action trading. Each trader may have different objectives. For example, among day traders, a micro-scalper has a different objective than a price swing scalper (who may trade both directions even in certain types of trending patterns), who has a different objective than an intraday trend-follower who scalps price swings only in the direction of a trending move, who has a different objective than an intraday trend follower who holds through retraces (and possibly adds to a profitable position during retraces), who has a different objective than a counter-trend scalper who only trades contrary to a strong directional price move.

So here are five traders who may all use an analysis of technical setups (price and/or indicator patterns on a chart) to enter into trades that each believes has a higher probability of reaching profit A before hitting stop loss B, based on extensive research of their chosen trade setups (technical patterns).

Here is an intraday candle chart with time and price removed. I invite any technical price action traders who see a potential trade setup at the hard right edge to let us know what would have to happen next to trigger a trade entry, the direction of the trade (long/short), the level at which the odds of success would diminish enough to exit (stop loss level), and the minimum level at which a profit will taken (and why, if you want to share that).

Since there are no price levels, you can assign any price to your entry and assume each grid line marks a 5-unit move (5 ticks).

attachment.php

How about this chart. Think it can be traded?

http://clem.mscd.edu/~mayest/Excel/Files/Coin Toss Stock Prices and Chart.xls
 
Quote from Fah Q:

yes, you did make claim. you said this in your special situation journal.

'Obviously not every entry will be a winner but every entry will have strong odds of success and a huge positive expectancy'

how do you know it's strong odds? and huge positive expectancy? you don't have significant sample size to make claims. sounds like buying falling knife and praying it goes up.

Yes, that's what I believe. I misspoke that i never made the claim. I meant I have not proved it via testing. Why not just follow my journal and see what happens.

In the meantime, here's the truth about charts:

http://clem.mscd.edu/~mayest/Excel/Files/Coin Toss Stock Prices and Chart.xls
 
Quote from marketsurfer:



Yes, that's what I believe. I misspoke that i never made the claim. I meant I have not proved it via testing.


what makes you believe? you have no evidence this will work. or not enough evidence.
 
Quote from Fah Q:

what makes you believe? you have no evidence this will work. or not enough i should evidence.

20 plus years of hands on experience, close association with several finance PhD's, countless hours of study , and numerous contacts in all levels of the information curve and finance world have enabled me to understand how markets really work.
 
Oh really? No claims about price drivers?? How about:

"A price driver is what actually moves price."

A pretty definitive statement about what actually moves price without a shred of proof within a novel and extremely untested method. LOL

Quote from marketsurfer:





You are correct. I don't make any claims regarding price driver other than the fact it anticipates trades based on information rather than price. Price driver is extremely novel and has not been fully tested.

"A price driver is what actually moves price."


Surf
 
Quote from marketsurfer:

20 plus years of hands on experience, close association with several finance PhD's, countless hours of study , and numerous contacts in all levels of the information curve and finance world have enabled me to understand how markets really work.

until you have 1000 trades, there is no way to know.
 
Quote from R. Raskolnikov:

Oh really? No claims about price drivers?? How about:

"A price driver is what actually moves price."

A pretty definitive statement about what actually moves price without a shred of proof within a novel and extremely untested method. LOL


Yes, price doesn't drive price as TA folks apparently believe. Price drivers drive price. Dats a fact jack. :D

Just to clarify, a price driver is not a single input-- it's a weighted amalagation of 2 dozen information inputs that are applied in real time to determine directional bias on a pre selected instrument group. Surf
 
Quote from Fah Q:

until you have 1000 trades, there is no way to know.

I'm willing to bet on it. Follow surfs special situation journal to see what happens. System is short JCP right now.

Surf
 
Oh, I already know what works. And it doesn't involve news or price drivers. Not to say your method won't work, only that I know what does work and it doesnt involve your tools.

Quote from marketsurfer:

Yes, price doesn't drive price as TA folks apparently believe. Price drivers drive price. Dats a fact jack. :D
 
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