Why does TA not work (for you)?

[cornix]

Quote from BSAM:

Please raise your hand if you believe that PA trading is not technical analysis.

Of course it is.

 

[BSAM]

Quote from cornixforex:

Of course it is.

Very good brother Corn.
Many seem to think it's (only) triangles and squiggly lines.

 

[jack hershey]

Quote from jack hershey:

Currently, the market has a status in a trend.

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Tomorrow Monday (06AUG12) you may enter long at the beginning of bar 1 which I call the 9:35 bar (it is named for the time at the end of the bar 300 seconds into the five minute bar.

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Ti is on bar 81 and before that you label P! on bar 79.

You need to find P2. It will be on bar 1. Make a note to begin the LTL on bar 1.

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Since bar 2 is an offset black bar from bar 1 and the volume is greater, then you have another repeated P2.
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Following P2 is the trough (T2) of volume that givesyou the point 3 of the RTL. To go from a peak volume to a trough volume can take 1 or 2 or 3 bars.

The point is this. You have time on your hands (boredom the ignorant call it) because the usual trend ends inside the drawn parallelogram. we need to have point 3 to get the parallelogram drawn.

Bar 1 was a wait and bar was the P2.

bar 3 is the T2

And so now we are looking for the FTT.

you are now 4 points inot the trade.

 

[cornix]

Quote from BSAM:

Very good brother Corn.
Many seem to think it's (only) triangles and squiggly lines.

Well, my conclusion comes from that famous (and pretty good I must say) Edwards & Magee book is named "Technical Analysis of Stock Trends" while it actually describes price action at it's best, paying only some attention to anything else if any.

And in general I think TA is any trading that is based on observing market's action rather than analyzing what could cause this market action (aka macro picture aka fundamentals).

 

[jack hershey]

You have lock in on bar 4 for another P2 of the long.

This means the long can wrap in a couple of bars.

you need both sides of the third trend move. You will get the second side on bar 5

 

[BSAM]

Quote from cornixforex:

Well, my conclusion comes from that famous (and pretty good I must say) Edwards & Magee book is named "Technical Analysis of Stock Trends" while it actually describes price action at it's best, paying only some attention to anything else if any.

And in general I think TA is any trading that is based on observing market's action rather than analyzing what could cause this market action (aka macro picture aka fundamentals).

So, brother Corn, you're saying there's:

1. Technical analysis.

2. Fundamental analysis

3. Insider information.

Is this correct?

 

[logic_man]

Quote from contra:

I am also not one to buy into this psych emotional bs either, I believe it's another scam in this industry quite possibly.

You have some sort of edge or you don't. There is no way it's in pure TA or else everyone would be making money after they bought or downloaded the Murphy book.

Now of course, you have to be level headed enough to stick to the rigid plan with discipline to carry out the edge, but I think many people deviate from it (if they have it) and/or are just gambling because they are fucked in the head to begin with and can't control themselves.

I don't know... not stating any facts, just some thoughts.

I also think that psychology is a crutch that many use to rationalize failure.

If you go back to the study, there was an "edge" embedded in the game's odds, so that part was taken care of by the study design. The study didn't necessarily show that people with little or no emotion are better at designing strategies. Since a strategy is, almost by definition, developed by taking a step back from the market action and trying to see the overall way in which the market works, it's something that even the most emotional person ought to be able to do without bringing emotion into it.

The only "psychological" question I think is relevant is "If you DID have the psychological strength to follow your rules EXACTLY, would you make money?"

If the answer is "no", then it doesn't help to worry about psychology at all. Worry about improving your strategy. Every minute spent on one is at the expense of the other, so choose how to allocate your time wisely.

 

[jack hershey]

bar 6 gave you a failure to end.

so bar 7 is in a yellow box ans will jump out the top and keep the long gonig to the FTT

 

[cornix]

Quote from BSAM:

So, brother Corn, you're saying there's:

1. Technical analysis.

2. Fundamental analysis

3. Insider information.

Is this correct?

Well, I am not trading chronicler, but think yes, this classification is pretty close to reality, just maybe insider info can be put into #2 being the form of illegal fundamental analysis (analysis of the causes driving the market rather than market action itself).

 

[jack hershey]

notice how the yellow box dissapeared when the black bar 7 BO its top.