Why does TA not work (for you)?
- Thread starter Xspurt
- Start date
<b>Quote from kut2k2:
Absolutely dead wrong, and as a result, so is all the rest of what you wrote.</b>
Why does is a chart generated with a random number generator ( within parameters obviously) look just like a stock chart then?
Absolutely dead wrong, and as a result, so is all the rest of what you wrote.</b>
Why does is a chart generated with a random number generator ( within parameters obviously) look just like a stock chart then?
Precisely! You can run any type of Monte Carol simulation, put it along side an actual stock chart, and ask someone to pick out the randomly generated chart vs the real chart and they would not be able to tell the difference. We had an exercise just like this in the MS program on the bond markets and the randomly generated charts (we had to choose the method of generated data ourselves) were no different than the actual live charts.
The market is not 100% random. There are large players involved who can influence a certain stock or instrument for a limited amount of time, and then there's the Fed and the Banking System. That being said, however, the market is largely random, meaning significantly more than 50%. It can't be proven; hence, the reason for the words "hypothesis," and "theory." When you win a Nobel Prize for work in this area it tends to mean something.
The market is not 100% random. There are large players involved who can influence a certain stock or instrument for a limited amount of time, and then there's the Fed and the Banking System. That being said, however, the market is largely random, meaning significantly more than 50%. It can't be proven; hence, the reason for the words "hypothesis," and "theory." When you win a Nobel Prize for work in this area it tends to mean something.
It because you have a negative attitude. Most planes fly themselves. My friend once took me up in a private plane. I have never flown before, but he handed me the controls, and I was flying the plane. Easier then you may think. Also, for those that want to demo flying a plane first you can buy a flight simulator for your PC.
Quote from cornixforex:
Frankly, I never say it's "just gut feel", but usually when asked and can't exactly describe my internal thinking algorithm in a particular case, say that I will try to explain as well as I can, but ask readers to give me more questions if something is unclear.
I remember when I'd started dabbling with the 6E and you dropped in and told me you trade it with a max 6 tick stop. I honestly didn't believe you. I couldn't imagine any way that was possible.
You told me you cross-referenced the smaller time frame to time the entry just right and I think you offered some cursory explanation of what you looked for in a setup, but it wasn't very clear to me. So I was watching the two time frames like a hawk, and was bookmarking all the contingent price levels in my head as each bar closed, and you called a couple trades.
I saw what was going on and how you were able to place that small stop and I had one of those Aha! moments of clarity. Next morning I put on a 6E trade based on what I'd learned and I placed a 6-tick stop and it was WAY TOO CLOSE. There was no way it could possibly work! Quick, move it further away! I immediately moved it to 10 ticks.
That original 6 tick stop held just fine.
Later as I gained more experience with the multiple time frames, I narrowed my stops trading oil. It really improved my R:R profile.
I'm glad when you first talked to me about it I didn't dismiss you as a total lunatic.
"Condemnation without investigation is the height of ignorance."
- Albert Einstein
If you're talking about MSFT's Flight Simulator game, that game rocks. I've been playing that since Windows 3.1. It's pretty realistic. I've never flown an actual plane but I've been in a 737 simulator. Cruising altitude is a breeze. It's the landing that's tuff. I killed all souls on board LOL.
Seems to be a common theme in this thread
Good post!
Quote from NoDoji:
I remember when I'd started dabbling with the 6E and you dropped in and told me you trade it with a max 6 tick stop. I honestly didn't believe you. I couldn't imagine any way that was possible.
You told me you cross-referenced the smaller time frame to time the entry just right and I think you offered some cursory explanation of what you looked for in a setup, but it wasn't very clear to me. So I was watching the two time frames like a hawk, and was bookmarking all the contingent price levels in my head as each bar closed, and you called a couple trades.
I saw what was going on and how you were able to place that small stop and I had one of those Aha! moments of clarity. Next morning I put on a 6E trade based on what I'd learned and I placed a 6-tick stop and it was WAY TOO CLOSE. There was no way it could possibly work! Quick, move it further away! I immediately moved it to 10 ticks.
That original 6 tick stop held just fine.
Later as I gained more experience with the multiple time frames, I narrowed my stops trading oil. It really improved my R:R profile.
I'm glad when you first talked to me about it I didn't dismiss you as a total lunatic.
"Condemnation without investigation is the height of ignorance."
- Albert Einstein
i am very confident that if my temp guage in the car goes to 210 and their is steam coming from under the hood,in the last 5 minutes,that in the next 5 my engine will be worse off,i am pretty confident that if a bright sunny day turns ominously dark at noon ,that rain is coming and i should fold up the picnic,i am pretty confident.. that leading behavior will have a predictable outcome the majority of the time, from your postings in this thread you don't seem to be self misleading thru philosophacle means so i have to ask where you derive your predictive ,non predictive behavior from, what is the catalyst that drives you to your conclusions,or refraining from a conclusion,because a coin flip does not cover it,it covers random,only, in such a case where you have no other variables
Quote from NoDoji:
I'm glad when you first talked to me about it I didn't dismiss you as a total lunatic.
"Condemnation without investigation is the height of ignorance."
- Albert Einstein
Hahaha, yea, I bet it sounded like something borderline crazy for you... Know the feeling so well, because felt the same "how is this ever possible?!" when was told similar ideas myself.