Why does ET countertrend powerful trends so much ?
- Thread starter No.Heat
- Start date
I disagree, it has nothing to do with that.
IMO, this rally is "buy the rumor" that we may have a more favorable shift in politics (a.k.a. today's economics) come this November and therefore something resembling decent economic policy at least as far as business is concerned.
It doesn't matter if any of us little folk believe it or not, Big Money does.
There is certainly no evidence that the trillions wasted so far have created barely anything but more debt. It certainly has not created anything but Federal jobs and more bloated regulations. It certainly has not filtered into lending for private industry or consumers.
And some ultra-expensive union infrastructure jobs. And a bunch of climate-based (false) science grants and pork to so-called green companies.
So, yet again, we have too much money chasing too little value = the very definition of a bubble.
i'm a lousy trader but a good chartist, i see support and res using market profile and trendlines, i apply these over several instruments to get confirmation or non confirmation, when it sets up i put on a position, when wrong ,i get out,i trade the extremes not the middle between supp/res because i'm not that good of a scalper,its simple supply/demand, its not really countertrend, its selling res and buying supp,trial and error works it way down to drinking the koolaid or reading the screen,from the es journal, just to name a few, vol,jss, LC,startraitor,wave,the new guys buying this last 120 point move, they are all more talented and have outraded me day in day out,they just dont post there entry/exits as often,i post out of boredom and a chance to share hoping to get info back, pay it forward,its working,don't define traders,there styles ,or yourself, define the market and trade it limiting your lossesQuote from Now is Now:
Surprisingly, too broad a statement coming from you (not putting you down)....Ammo is successful and generally a 1 way trader (counter trend), but he uses appropriate stops to get out of the way...so, basically, there is no way he is going to have his ass handed to him.....in the meantime...
I trade counter trend on ES ,but without the same sophistication of Ammo,...I 'know'/understand where he is coming from but don't apply the same discipline....I used to do something very similar back in the 90's.
Therefore I am always aware of the potential of getting a good kick in the ass...fortunately has not happened for quite awhile; not to say my nose didn't bleed a couple of times:eek:
'Counter trend' trading is profitable provided the trader has an adequate capital base and common sense allocation strategy...and above all , to know when they are wrong.
NiN
It seems to me that 'counter trending' comes in different shapes and , by definition, can be meant to mean 'position trading' subject to the individual's strategy....the key to success is to know when you are wrong and get out of the way...
I tend to push the envelope a little, but no real harm....I have an 'exit' if pushed to the limit and will have to eat it.
While been profitable , I can see that I can really improve my entry points....patience is not my strongest suit and have got used to doing the same ol' same ol'....need to adjust and my exposures will look a lot better.
Ironically, my mindset is completely different with E6....a different animal.
NiN
I tend to push the envelope a little, but no real harm....I have an 'exit' if pushed to the limit and will have to eat it.
While been profitable , I can see that I can really improve my entry points....patience is not my strongest suit and have got used to doing the same ol' same ol'....need to adjust and my exposures will look a lot better.
Ironically, my mindset is completely different with E6....a different animal.
NiN
buying the dips works best in bull markets
I totally agree, what the funnymentals are saying has nothing to do with price as often times it is late or already factored in. Like when Crude was $100, folks saying the highs are in, all the way up to $147, if you weren't using options as a hedge, shorting was losing.
What I have always thought funny, so many people start as day traders and lose, and yet all the big money is made in longer term. You have much more time to think of the trade. When you add up how much you actually risked today to get so little profits, whereas long term, total risk is much smaller and profits are huge compared to day trading.
Unless you are doing breakouts, all other entries are counter-trend, buying dips in some timeframe is counter-trend.
I very seldom do breakouts, I don't like to extend risk to other side, just too much jagged price action for me. Do I recommend to anyone of waiting for price to come down to levels to buy, heck no, most people refuse to spend 10,000 hours to backtest.
I saw this alot on the forexfactory forum last night. Lot of people trying to short the E/U . People always trying to call tops and bottoms. Newbs perhaps.
You can't spell or use punctuation correctly just like most people in high school. You give yourself away each time you post. You insult yourself just being in this forum.
My 10 year old son knows it would be impossible to Photoshop 30 MG of back testing results in such a short time . . . but you don't.
So maybe you aren't smarter than a 5th grader . . . either.