Why does DNA Suck?

J

JournalWriter

Can anyone explain to me why DNA can't find support? I know the chart is ugly, but are the fundamentals worse than I'm catching on to?
Should I give it up and move to AMGN?

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note: edit out url.
 
No, I'm long in my IRA. I was doing fine writing covered calls, but I'm not sitting on a profit any more with this latest dip and the premiums aren't there to make it worth holding if I can't justify it after expirations this week.

I was asking a legit question. Curious if others have opinions on why it's still dropping when it is at a low price compared to its historic p/e.

I still like it, but starting to wonder if my emotions are distorting my view.
 
maybe dna has had its day, i made a heap of cash on it a few years ago.
Be warned biotechs can be extremely hazardous to your health.
 
Quote from JournalWriter:

Can anyone explain to me why DNA can't find support? I know the chart is ugly, but are the fundamentals worse than I'm catching on to? Should I give it up and move to AMGN?
More...

Your thinking is not clear. DNA is the stock symbol for Genentech, Inc. Stock symbols do not find things. People find things. Charts are not ugly. People might interpret things as ugly. Fundamentals are not worse. Fundamentals exist.

You might consider the possible outcomes of allowing losing positions to remain in your portfolio.

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Buying when the closing price of Genentech, Inc. stock symbol DNA is greater than the 220 day exponential moving average value and selling when the closing price is less than the
220 day exponential moving average value might show a profit:

Number of trades 58
Total profit $ 281923
Profit after subtracting $ 10.00 commission, slippage per transaction: $ 280763
Heat is 2.00 per cent of equity.
Greatest drawdown is 0.1189 (11.89 per cent).
Cumulative Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) is 13.53 per cent.
CAGR / Drawdown is 1.14
Instantaneously Compounding Annual Growth Rate (ICAGR) is 6.44 per cent.
Annually Compounding Annual Growth Rate (ACAGR) is 6.66 per cent.
Information Ratio is 0.15
Initial capital is $ 100000

I observe less profit when I simulate trading using shorter term exponential moving average values.

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Sometimes I find things

<img src=http://www.cricketsoda.com/images/keywordsnov2004/look_and_find.jpg \img>

when I see clearly.
 
The DNA stock price malaise is mostly due to Avastin sales growth not living up to initial expectations. Many analysts were hoping for 5-10B peak sales, but its struggled to top 3B. Rutuxan and Herceptin have done better than expected, but DNA does not have much of a late-stage pipeline, especially considering what they spend on research. Thus share price will continue to be largely driven by Avastin. Similar to AMGN and EPO, Avastin also has serious safety issues, and its efficacy is not that dramatic. Hard to see a positive catalyst that will lead to a break-out from the $70-80 range in the short-term. They have a lot of room for EPS growth through cost-cutting which might get them out of the current range, but not likely to happen too soon.
 
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