There is an interesting chapter in the book called "A random walk down Wall Street" it explains a lot about TA. It's working just because people believe that it's working.
Why does anyone take technical analysis seriously?
- Thread starter Sotnis
- Start date
I'm sure that would happen on some randomly generated chart. About on 50% of them.
The random charts are the DEATH BLOW to technical analyst's core concepts------- heck even one here is saying that their system still produces a PROFIT on random charts!!!! Think and extrapolate this, for a second, if this is the case, then random entries on a stock chart would produce a profit----- you can not have it both ways!!
Man, talk about hindsight delusion and just a complete misunderstanding of reality. The lure of easy money and "even a caveman can do it" mentality is incredibly strong among elite traders.
Watch them come and start cursing, threatening, and attacking like the extinct relics they are--rather than admit defeat and move on another path to beat the markets----
surf
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The same thing could be said about astrology or any other wide spread false belief.
The only two people who know why Paul Tudor Jones and Jim Dalton stopped daytrading are: Paul Tudor Jones and Jim Dalton.
Why did Niederhoffer stop? Oooh I forgot: he blew up a few times.
It is hilarious how Marketsurfer always knows everything the best. Or maybe he plays tennis with Paul Tudor Jones and Jim Dalton? Or they live next to each other and have parties around their swimmingpool? And then they probably told him why they stopped.
In every village there is a village idiot. I know the name of the one living in Palm Beach.
Poor people always think about money. There are other things in live that are important too. But to understand that you should first try to get out of poverty.
Tudor Jones lives in my neighborhood so stfu, big guy. But that really doesn't matter. Why not post a rebuttal rather than personal attacks?
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I had no idea who you were talking about ehen you said "jim dalt@n" so I did a search.
Surely you are not using him in the same sentence as PTJ to make a point, right? You mean jim chanos, maybe jim rodgers??? I'll let it go as a typo.
surf
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I mentioned that one of the barriers to intelligent and worthwhile communication about TA/PA discussions is the idea of predictability. If each and every instance of a TA edge is indeed independent from each and every other, and if each instance has a truly random result, then use of "predict," by both proponents and opponents alike will lead the discussion astray from the outset. There is a difference in kind between an edge understood as higher probability of one result rather than another and thinking one is actually predicting a specific result with each and every instance of the edge.
The other barrier is just as you've described it here: How does one define whether or not TA/PA "works." Does a moving average crossover system work? Well, not without adequate rules for trading it in a manner to exploit whatever edge it may have. Blindly trading MA crosses will likely not produce a profitable result over a series of trades. However, add in some well-tested trade management rules and a simple MA trading system can work like a charm.