Why does anyone take technical analysis seriously?

marketsurfer said:
Just to set the record straight--- I have been BANNED from talking about TA on this site--
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Was the ban lifted?
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Where are these people?? I have yet to see or hear about anyone being succesful with TA except those who market it. Real names and real evidence.

just like these poor souls who cling to TA despite overwhelmingly negative evidence.

It's called MARKETING. Everyone from Goldman Sachs to Tim Sykes uses TA as marketing. No one really uses it to trade succesfully.

In addition, the majority of academic studies prove chart ta is doomed to fail.
 
It works on all timeframes but the lower you go, the more squirrely the price action. Scalping is a tough way to go.

In my opinion that "squirrely" price action is what makes TA/indicators useless in short timeframes.
 
I'm currently a student in university doing a quantitative degree. What I've learned is that there are plenty of people who fail to understand mathematics, statistics and other science related subjects. And these are people who can study a clearly defined curriculum with all the world's resources at their hand to help them.

Still, many of them fail.

Does this mean that mathematics and statistics doesn't work?


You confusing the person with the discipline. as you say the subjects listed follow protocol accepted across the board--- when a person fails at them it is the person who fails.

SInce TA itself is flawed, its not the person, its the subject.

big difference.

peace,

surf

PS-- where are you at school?
 
marketsurfer said:
Just to set the record straight--- I have been BANNED from talking about TA on this site--
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Was the ban lifted?
-----------------------------------------------------------------------

I was asked to back off which I did and will now do again out of respect. Peace, surf
 
Jump to minute 19 to see how Linda described which TA is used in trading the markets.

I m not a fanatic. Everything can be useful. Here another link discussing TA vs FA. Personally i use both, FA for selecting my universe, rankings and allocations. TA for measuring volatility swings, trends and barriers to change (can be very helpful in trading)
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/te...-a-stock-picking-slapdown-who-wins-2015-09-04


Linda rocks!! Just goes to show one can disagree but still be close friends with the person. peace, surf
 
Every day I'll see a story on a legitimate website like Marketwatch with an eye-catching headline saying "Why we're bearish on ABC stock." I'll open the article and it will have a bunch of confusing charts and graphs and state something like "We are clearly entering a double cross heads and shoulders evil death pattern, proving this stock is going to tank soon."

Why do some people actually base their investing decisions on technical analysis? From my own long experience it doesn't mater THAT much.

As I see it, TA is just a specialized form of "descriptive statistics":
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Descriptive_statistics

There is obviously nothing wrong in making such quantifications, just as it makes perfect sense to compute other descriptive statistics.

The issue arises when you wish to attribute inferential value to such observations, like for instance when you wish to interpret it as a "premonition" of a future occurrence:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statistical_inference

It's mainly a conceptual issue. Imho, attributing previsive value is, first of all, a crackpot nonsense conceptually, and, second, not supported by any sound statistical evidence (clearly if we exclude pseudo scientific inventions by charlatans and people with no solid statistical background).

This does not mean anyway that it's "wrong" to use them to "decide" entries or other actions. In any case you entry is governed by price movement (and/or other observations) . So in case we model the price as a random process, the "entry" (say for instance, the pair [price, time] ) too is going to be a random variable, and basing the entry on some TA computation is simply a transformation of a random variable, resulting in another random variable. So there is nothing wrong in that, as essentially everybody is inevitably doing the same.

I would just argue that the terminology may be a bit misleading, especially for beginners. (Just as the term "stop loss" is misleading.) But these terminologies are typical of the field where there are so many entities trying to sell something and often do not mind to bend concepts and reason when it is convenient.
 
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