Why Do We Trade? For Real.

[lucysparabola]

To me: Past prices are only used to analyze the behavior of people (or the market). The prices themselves from past are irrelevant and cannot be used for future trading. The behavior of the market in correlation with the moves the prices make and vice versa, are important and can be used for future trading. Because people, or markets, tend to have a build in reaction to certain circumstances, it is possible to "predict" within certain limits, what the prices will do in future.
For me it works.
I don't know what system Soros uses, but it is astonishing that in the JPY I made the same move in 2012/2013 as he did. Probably based on other systems but with the same result. Soros is according to you probably a genius, and I am an idiot. But we did the same thing, in fact I made more pips than he did because I was already short at least 6 months before he was, and at a much better price.
I don't pretend that I am better then Soros, surely not. But in this particular case my not working TA worked very well, despite the fact that is should not work according to you.
I now your answer already: I was lucky!
No I was not lucky, I was happy.

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PriceDrivers seek to look behind price to predict how price should move in the future. The things that move price not price itself. Sure, it can be wrong, but its a huge improvement over considering only past price.

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Please, all new traders, read every post written by 'i am nobody.' 20x.

 

[marketsurfer]

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???

Please, all new traders, read every post written by 'i am nobody.' 20x.

Lucy,

I must disagree that past price can be used to analyze the behavior of people and if it could, what would the value be? Stocks are moved by masses of capital not masses of people. One trader can control enough shares to move the price--- how can past price help you if a hedge fund manager eats a bad hamburger at sonic and decides to dump his shares which represent 20% of the float? Seriously, we are not talking about herd behavior, as a single decision can and does tilt price radically. You are only fooling youself if you think past price has anything to do with the future--- surf

 

[marketsurfer]

Trends. Duh! Have you been paying any attention at all?

Btw animal tracks don't always lead to the animal. If the animal is smart enough to backtrack or to enter a stream for a while, it can throw hunters off its trail. Not all hunts are successful, but enough are to keep hunters trying time and again.

Price is obviously not easy to hunt, but that doesn't mean the hunt is impossible nor the results merely random noise.

trends don't exist in the stock market, only upward drift. If you flip a coin 10 times and get heads 10 times, are you in a heads trend? surf

 

[kut2k2]

trends don't exist in the stock market, only upward drift. If you flip a coin 10 times and get heads 10 times, are you in a heads trend? surf

Before you can logically declare something nonexistent, you must precisely define it so your audience knows exactly what you're talking about and can point out any flaws in your logic.

For example, if I declare "dragons don't exist" and someone else displays pictures, videos and even live specimens of Komodo dragons, then clearly my presumption that everyone knew and agreed with my definition of dragons was flawed.

You never bother to define precisely what you mean by trends, you merely declare them nonexistent. That's unacceptable.

 

[i am nobody]

Lucy,

I must disagree that past price can be used to analyze the behavior of people and if it could, what would the value be? Stocks are moved by masses of capital not masses of people. One trader can control enough shares to move the price--- how can past price help you if a hedge fund manager eats a bad hamburger at sonic and decides to dump his shares which represent 20% of the float? Seriously, we are not talking about herd behavior, as a single decision can and does tilt price radically. You are only fooling youself if you think past price has anything to do with the future--- surf

Capital is moved by human beings. Human beings decide what will happen with the capital. Capital cannot make decisions on its own.
You can analyze behaviour, I do it every day with enough success to make money. After 20 years of continues studying I can predict with over 80% accuracy what the market will do (within a certain timeframe).
What would be the value? $$$$$$$$$$$$$!!!!!
It is very clear for me now why you will never be a succesful trader. Writers should write, not give advice in trading. You clearly have no clue about trading. Despite interviewing and meeting all the famous traders of the entire world. These people apparently did not bring you any knowledge at all. You should study behavioral finance. That's the key.

The only thing I need are the consecutive quotes, more is not needed to build a system and to predict the market.

 

[marketsurfer]

ops:ops:

. After 20 years of continues studying I can predict with over 80% accuracy what the market will do (within a certain timeframe).


The only thing I need are the consecutive quotes, more is not needed to build a system and to predict the market.

Ok, nostradamus. Whatever you say.
surf

 

[marketsurfer]

Before you can logically declare something nonexistent, you must precisely define it so your audience knows exactly what you're talking about and can point out any flaws in your logic.

For example, if I declare "dragons don't exist" and someone else displays pictures, videos and even live specimens of Komodo dragons, then clearly my presumption that everyone knew and agreed with my definition of dragons was flawed.

You never bother to define precisely what you mean by trends, you merely declare them nonexistent. That's unacceptable.

My trading mentor explains this fact way better than I can

" Any trend that exists can be quantified and its departure from randomness can be measured with the usual statistical procedures, such as confidence intervals and likelihoods. Serial correlation coefficients, regression coefficients of current changes versus past changes, and magnitudes of the impact of past moving averages on the future, distributions of the length of runs, the correllelogram, the expected waiting times between peaks and valleys, survival statistics. All these techniques are very good at discovering any non-random elements.

To join a proper debate, such measures must be quantified for various markets and various times, and the degree of uncertainty and departure from randomness must be ascertained. I have never found a movement in prices that anyone could make money with by a trend following method that didn’t also show a major departure from randomness revealed by the standard statistical measures I mentioned. The tragedy is the mysticism and blind acceptance of trendism, that trend following exponents proclaim, without any evidence as to magnitude and uncertainty. No self-reported results that selected individuals or leaders might have made in the past shed light on the debate."

 

[kut2k2]

My trading mentor explains this fact way better than I can

" Any trend that exists can be quantified and its departure from randomness can be measured with the usual statistical procedures, such as confidence intervals and likelihoods. Serial correlation coefficients, regression coefficients of current changes versus past changes, and magnitudes of the impact of past moving averages on the future, distributions of the length of runs, the correllelogram, the expected waiting times between peaks and valleys, survival statistics. All these techniques are very good at discovering any non-random elements.

To join a proper debate, such measures must be quantified for various markets and various times, and the degree of uncertainty and departure from randomness must be ascertained. I have never found a movement in prices that anyone could make money with by a trend following method that didn’t also show a major departure from randomness revealed by the standard statistical measures I mentioned. The tragedy is the mysticism and blind acceptance of trendism, that trend following exponents proclaim, without any evidence as to magnitude and uncertainty. No self-reported results that selected individuals or leaders might have made in the past shed light on the debate."

Nowhere in that post is there a definition of trend, much less a suggested procedure for quantifying it.

You seem to be incapable of answering the most rudimentary questions.

Goodbye.

 

[i am nobody]

ops:ops:

Ok, nostradamus. Whatever you say.
surf

Yes but I cannot beat you because you are always right in everything. At least you think you are.

My short position ES from start of March is up 67% now. In less than one month.
Random?? LOL

 

[marketsurfer]

Yes but I cannot beat you because you are always right in everything. At least you think you are.

My short position ES from start of March is up 67% now. In less than one month.
Random?? LOL

Why are you still poor if you have 80% accuracy. Sumthing is fishy here

Nowhere in that post is there a definition of trend, much less a suggested procedure for quantifying it.

You seem to be incapable of answering the most rudimentary questions.

Goodbye.

A series of moves in one direction that can be quantified and exploited as deviating from randomness. I thought this was obvious, sorry!