Why do traders talk about TA as if it is physics ?

[Trader Curt]

In that case, you should have no problem proving that via a backtest. Post the results, please?

Hmmm, let me think about it......

No thanks.

I'm fine with you not believing it because then you would know my strategy. You also don't even know the markets I trade, or even the time frames I use. Yet you act like your the king of trading and all indicators are worthless under every condition, and I just don't have the time of day to convince you otherwise, and for what? To gain someone's approval over the internet? To help you learn another strategy? You'd have to pay me to do that. Sorry bud, the answer is no. I won't be telling you how to trade better, better luck next time. Have a good day.

 

[notagain]

Tick charts with set of Stochastics, one for offense and the other for defense.

 

[themickey]

May as well use this, ouija board.

 

[BlueWaterSailor]

Hmmm, let me think about it......

No thanks.

I'm fine with you not believing it because then you would know my strategy. You also don't even know the markets I trade, or even the time frames I use. Yet you act like your the king of trading and all indicators are worthless under every condition, and I just don't have the time of day to convince you otherwise, and for what? To gain someone's approval over the internet? To help you learn another strategy? You'd have to pay me to do that. Sorry bud, the answer is no. I won't be telling you how to trade better, better luck next time. Have a good day.

The last thing I need from you is to tell me how to trade. I'm sure that there's some minor detail I could extract from the noise - even a stopped clock is right twice a day - but the fact that you believe in indicators tells me all I need to know about you. You'd have to pay me to listen to you... and given the above, I'm pretty certain that you wouldn't be able to afford it.

But hey, good luck in your trading - assuming you actually do any.

 

[Overnight]

The last thing I need from you is to tell me how to trade. I'm sure that there's some minor detail I could extract from the noise - even a stopped clock is right twice a day - but the fact that you believe in indicators tells me all I need to know about you. You'd have to pay me to listen to you... and given the above, I'm pretty certain that you wouldn't be able to afford it.

But hey, good luck in your trading - assuming you actually do any.

Do options trades benefit from indicators? That whole 10D chess thing going on in options makes me think indicators would have zero utility when it comes the calculations across time. Directional trading uses indicators, because it is total 2D shit.

Options are, well...here...

When the semiset curves into the subatomic, the two infinities cancel each other out. That's options. None of this 2D trading, but 10D!

 

[BlueWaterSailor]

Tick charts with set of Stochastics, one for offense and the other for defense.

Cool beans; that's a day where it happened to work. Try it over, say, a 20-year run, like this:

That's MNQ using StochLE and StochSE.

 

[BlueWaterSailor]

Do options trades benefit from indicators?

I know people who use them. Whether there's an actual benefit (beyond what you get from a rabbit's foot) remains to be proven.

I'm perfectly willing to accept evidence that TA works. All I've heard and seen so far is passionate arguments, insults, boasting, obvious lies, snotty remarks about "why would I show you my secrets"... endless amounts of noise from empty-headed fanatics and "gurus" selling their line of garbage to credulous newbies. I've also seen several people whose judgment I respect say that they found some value in looking at charts, just as I do - but not a one who would make an outright statement about "indicators definitely work", etc. My opinion and experience align with theirs.

I've also seen a number of people willing to openly discuss their trading methods in their journals - just as I have. There are no "secrets" - just a hell of a lot of hard work and knowledge - and there's no reason to hide that. The TA bunch never does this... at least I've never seen a successful TA user's journal. So, while absence of evidence does not constitute evidence of absence, it is at the very least a strong correlation that says "TA doesn't work."

I'm willing to be proven wrong, but that's a place where TA folks get awfully shy all of a sudden.

 

[Overnight]

I know people who use them. Whether there's an actual benefit (beyond what you get from a rabbit's foot) remains to be proven.

I'm perfectly willing to accept evidence that TA works. All I've heard and seen so far is passionate arguments, insults, boasting, obvious lies, snotty remarks about "why would I show you my secrets"... endless amounts of noise from empty-headed fanatics and "gurus" selling their line of garbage to credulous newbies. I've also seen several people whose judgment I respect say that they found some value in looking at charts, just as I do - but not a one who would make an outright statement about "indicators definitely work", etc. My opinion and experience align with theirs.

I've also seen a number of people willing to openly discuss their trading methods in their journals - just as I have. There are no "secrets" - just a hell of a lot of hard work and knowledge - and there's no reason to hide that. The TA bunch never does this... at least I've never seen a successful TA user's journal. So, while absence of evidence does not constitute evidence of absence, it is at the very least a strong correlation that says "TA doesn't work."

I'm willing to be proven wrong, but that's a place where TA folks get awfully shy all of a sudden.

It is because all TA indicators are lagging indicators. Trading the news over a medium-to-longer term has the greatest risk v. reward ratio, in my book.

P.S. Be careful with the rabbit's foot. Rub it hard enough, and you get cut by that one sharp little hook in it, and bleed.

P.P.S. Blue, why would I ever tell you my secret I've been posting on my journal for years about just buying and holding? Ahh frak, I just said it out loud. Now it will never work again. Like when we get a TA death cross. DOOM!

 

[BlueWaterSailor]

It is because all TA indicators are lagging indicators. Trading the news over a medium-to-longer term has the greatest risk v. reward ratio, in my book.

I'm on board with trading the news via real-time semantic analysis. Medium to longer term... I accept that some folks can make that work, assuming they get reasonable-quality information - just like FA, which still has a fair amount of use. But it's not something I've got much experience with.

P.S. Be careful with the rabbit's foot. Rub it hard enough, and you get cut by that one sharp little hook in it, and bleed.

"The Dew Claw of Death", starring The Killer Rabbit of Caerbannog!

P.P.S. Blue, why would I ever tell you my secret I've been posting on my journal for years about just buying and holding? Ahh frak, I just said it out loud. Now it will never work again. Like when we get a TA death cross. DOOM!

And now that I've wormed your secret out of you, I'll... um... B&H all the stocks! And I'll make all the money in the world, and then there won't be any left for you, bwa-ha-ha!

(N.B.: if you're an adherent of the TA religion, the above scenario will sound reasonable to you. Just carry on; don't let me disturb your worldview.)

 

[oraclewizard77]

I think you don't understand that TA is a tool, it's not a strategy, and yes most indicators are useless and lag price. Also, I like many other traders put ALL of our trades on C2 (trades were posted 10 days after for non subscribers) and were paid for results over time. No one that I know just uses some indicator to trade for them to make money. I had no fear that someone can understand my strategy by seeing my trades, no one can reverse engineer price action. If you already know how to trade, you don't even need to try.

For those looking to create a strategy, you want to at least automate your entry and exit. Also, once in a trade, don't even look at it, just let the automation get you in and out. Develop an edge then back test it in sim, then forward test it with real money but low amounts till you can prove it works.

I'm on board with trading the news via real-time semantic analysis. Medium to longer term... I accept that some folks can make that work, assuming they get reasonable-quality information - just like FA, which still has a fair amount of use. But it's not something I've got much experience with.



"The Dew Claw of Death", starring The Killer Rabbit of Caerbannog!



And now that I've wormed your secret out of you, I'll... um... B&H all the stocks! And I'll make all the money in the world, and then there won't be any left for you, bwa-ha-ha!

(N.B.: if you're an adherent of the TA religion, the above scenario will sound reasonable to you. Just carry on; don't let me disturb your worldview.)