Why do traders fail?
- Thread starter market-boss
- Start date
https://www.businessinsider.com/europe-economic-gdp-growth-data-heading-to-recession-2019-1
Australia Banking/Housing Crisis, China printed 5 % of GDP in January alone and it's M1 according to there own data, fell pretty sharp in February... China had 18 Billion US Corporate Defaults in January. Europe is cooked, US has serious problems with 3 Trillion BBB heading towards Junk the Japanese are gonna pull out when that happens and duck for cover when that happens. Canada Banks/Housing, Japan big export slump, South Korea absolute slump in exports, those are all happening right now, what is August gonna be like ?
Every major economy is in a economic recession or entering one... Germany Manufacturing PMI is currently trending the same as when Lehman Collapsed. From peak 08 until bottom Mid 09, it's PMI declined by 23. From peak End 2017 until now, it's declined by 19... At current trend and momentum, it will pass the 23 mark in May. The Global Economy is gonna pop realll bad, nobody can predict how bad the market correction will be ( meltdown or just bear territory ) but as far as real economies, it's gonna be the biggest in our lifetime, it's the entire world bubble.
Australia Banking/Housing Crisis, China printed 5 % of GDP in January alone and it's M1 according to there own data, fell pretty sharp in February... China had 18 Billion US Corporate Defaults in January. Europe is cooked, US has serious problems with 3 Trillion BBB heading towards Junk the Japanese are gonna pull out when that happens and duck for cover when that happens. Canada Banks/Housing, Japan big export slump, South Korea absolute slump in exports, those are all happening right now, what is August gonna be like ?
Every major economy is in a economic recession or entering one... Germany Manufacturing PMI is currently trending the same as when Lehman Collapsed. From peak 08 until bottom Mid 09, it's PMI declined by 23. From peak End 2017 until now, it's declined by 19... At current trend and momentum, it will pass the 23 mark in May. The Global Economy is gonna pop realll bad, nobody can predict how bad the market correction will be ( meltdown or just bear territory ) but as far as real economies, it's gonna be the biggest in our lifetime, it's the entire world bubble.
If you do your homework you will not fail.
Hilarious...but it appears to be stuck on HOLD. That can create big losses...ROFLMAO
And here is what after happened after post #44. From post #40 the spin of the PA wheel screamed SELL...ROFLMAO and the wheel of fortune was correct all the way down to post #44. That means jackpot! $$$$. So....what happens after post #44? DIRECTION SOUTH..SHORT. It was all anticipated beforehand (see time stamp of posts)
SEE post 40 and 44.
I will show 5 min chart first of Friday’s and some trading opportunities and a few tactics.
Then i will dial down to 1 minute chart and do likewise. Then samathing on the 15, 30, 60 min charts, if I get around to it. SO MANY DAYTRADING OPPORTUNITIES FRIDAY IN A VARIETY OF TF’s.
Ok the 5 min chart. First notice the measured move (see dark blue arrows). From the top of the spike (gap or imaginary large bear bar on the open mentioned in post # ) we see that when there is such a large spike I will enter anywhere. Middle...close...the open..on first PB...first L1...etc The idea is just take a position in the direction of the opening spike gap. It matters not that the first bar was a bull bar. The large gap down nullifies that bull bar and by the end of that first bar we actually have ONE big bear bar. Such a down move in the form of a spike will most likely have a measured move down the size of the spike (which is from the top of the gap down to the first pullback and includes that bull bar open). By the end of the session the measured move was made. I spoke of measured moves BEFOREHAND in my posts.
That spike evolved into a tight channel. Spikes sooner or later usually do that. It can be a narrow tight channel or a broad channel. The key here is to know that the channel phase begins with the first pullback from the spike. Ok whats the tactic to trade channels? If they are tight trade in the direction of the channel only. If they are broad I can trade in both directions. This one is a tight channel that comes after extreme weakness so I only want to short this channel as price nears the top on PB’s or any price move to the top. Even if not techically a PB on this chart on a lower TF chart any bar that goes up to top of the channel is a PB on say a 1 min chart. So...I short all PB’s and exit in the lower third of the channel. Or I keep my original position from the spike and hold thru all Pb’s and add to that position on PB’s then exit the entire position when price trades down into the lower third on one of it’s legs down in the tight channel.
Remember all channels are ranges. They are just tilted ranges. But since they are sloped I only want to trade narrow steep channels in the direction of the channel.
Around 10:50 a.m. on that large bear bar we see a trading range began and lasted about 30 bars. It was not obvious that a trading range began on that large bear bar until later. But by the time we get 8 to 10 bars sideways move I am thinking this tight channel is evolving into a TR which is the natural progression of PA. So how do I trade a range? Short at the top 1/3 and average in if price moves against my short knowing that in ranges 80% of BO attempts fail and price goes right back into tge channel. I then cover shorts at the bottom 1/3 of the range. And I go long at the bottom of the range and average down adding more if it moves against me based on the idea again that most BO’s fail. Good odds 80%! I exit at the top 1/3 of the range and take my profits. At least 4 trades were in this range. Once a range hits 20 or more bars the odds are 50/50 that any subsequent successful BO can be in either direction. By the close this range was around 30 bars.
One other thing. In one of my prev posts after the open I said to be alert for a bull trap in the form of a EMA gap. I said after 1:30 central time we often see a trap move either up or down that traps traders depending on the context (up or down). Around 1:30 we see a BO (just before) become what looks like a successful BO of the range on a larger bull bar followed by an EMA gap (green). Novice traders and sonetimes other institutions get trapped in by these thinking we are in a reversal, or one is begining. So they jump in long. Suddeningly price is driven swiftly back down into the range and helped along as institutions that created the gap keep selling and other institutions caught with their britches down exit their longs and their selling even drives it down faster. Then you got the retail traders finally capitulating at the bottom of the range into the close on that larger bear bar near close as they cannot stand the pain any longer. So, they exit with another daytrading loss! Because, they could not discern what was happening until TOO LATE. Nir did they use correct tactics to trade PA. Other things could be said about this 5 minute chart but this is enough for now. And remember in my earlier posts I said short...short..short... and to also watch out for the ema gap trap. ALL BEFOREHAND. See time stamps of previous post.
ROFLMAO. GREAT DAY!
SEE post 40 and 44.
I will show 5 min chart first of Friday’s and some trading opportunities and a few tactics.
Then i will dial down to 1 minute chart and do likewise. Then samathing on the 15, 30, 60 min charts, if I get around to it. SO MANY DAYTRADING OPPORTUNITIES FRIDAY IN A VARIETY OF TF’s.
Ok the 5 min chart. First notice the measured move (see dark blue arrows). From the top of the spike (gap or imaginary large bear bar on the open mentioned in post # ) we see that when there is such a large spike I will enter anywhere. Middle...close...the open..on first PB...first L1...etc The idea is just take a position in the direction of the opening spike gap. It matters not that the first bar was a bull bar. The large gap down nullifies that bull bar and by the end of that first bar we actually have ONE big bear bar. Such a down move in the form of a spike will most likely have a measured move down the size of the spike (which is from the top of the gap down to the first pullback and includes that bull bar open). By the end of the session the measured move was made. I spoke of measured moves BEFOREHAND in my posts.
That spike evolved into a tight channel. Spikes sooner or later usually do that. It can be a narrow tight channel or a broad channel. The key here is to know that the channel phase begins with the first pullback from the spike. Ok whats the tactic to trade channels? If they are tight trade in the direction of the channel only. If they are broad I can trade in both directions. This one is a tight channel that comes after extreme weakness so I only want to short this channel as price nears the top on PB’s or any price move to the top. Even if not techically a PB on this chart on a lower TF chart any bar that goes up to top of the channel is a PB on say a 1 min chart. So...I short all PB’s and exit in the lower third of the channel. Or I keep my original position from the spike and hold thru all Pb’s and add to that position on PB’s then exit the entire position when price trades down into the lower third on one of it’s legs down in the tight channel.
Remember all channels are ranges. They are just tilted ranges. But since they are sloped I only want to trade narrow steep channels in the direction of the channel.
Around 10:50 a.m. on that large bear bar we see a trading range began and lasted about 30 bars. It was not obvious that a trading range began on that large bear bar until later. But by the time we get 8 to 10 bars sideways move I am thinking this tight channel is evolving into a TR which is the natural progression of PA. So how do I trade a range? Short at the top 1/3 and average in if price moves against my short knowing that in ranges 80% of BO attempts fail and price goes right back into tge channel. I then cover shorts at the bottom 1/3 of the range. And I go long at the bottom of the range and average down adding more if it moves against me based on the idea again that most BO’s fail. Good odds 80%! I exit at the top 1/3 of the range and take my profits. At least 4 trades were in this range. Once a range hits 20 or more bars the odds are 50/50 that any subsequent successful BO can be in either direction. By the close this range was around 30 bars.
One other thing. In one of my prev posts after the open I said to be alert for a bull trap in the form of a EMA gap. I said after 1:30 central time we often see a trap move either up or down that traps traders depending on the context (up or down). Around 1:30 we see a BO (just before) become what looks like a successful BO of the range on a larger bull bar followed by an EMA gap (green). Novice traders and sonetimes other institutions get trapped in by these thinking we are in a reversal, or one is begining. So they jump in long. Suddeningly price is driven swiftly back down into the range and helped along as institutions that created the gap keep selling and other institutions caught with their britches down exit their longs and their selling even drives it down faster. Then you got the retail traders finally capitulating at the bottom of the range into the close on that larger bear bar near close as they cannot stand the pain any longer. So, they exit with another daytrading loss! Because, they could not discern what was happening until TOO LATE. Nir did they use correct tactics to trade PA. Other things could be said about this 5 minute chart but this is enough for now. And remember in my earlier posts I said short...short..short... and to also watch out for the ema gap trap. ALL BEFOREHAND. See time stamps of previous post.
ROFLMAO. GREAT DAY!
With all goods posts on this thread and sound points, I believe missed only one for now - lack of support.
The novice trader can experience pressing from his family and social environment form one side and from another been scammed by certain brokers and other service providers.
What is still puzzling me is the lack of support even here on Et - only a few, members are really ready to help and advise.
For instance this thread https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/exante-exante-eu-is-a-scam.325080/page-3 or my own.
This is strange for me, I still see, all of us, retail-ex-amateur traders as a large tribe of likeminded persons and hope that support will grow, as it was on the floors times ago.
The novice trader can experience pressing from his family and social environment form one side and from another been scammed by certain brokers and other service providers.
What is still puzzling me is the lack of support even here on Et - only a few, members are really ready to help and advise.
For instance this thread https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/exante-exante-eu-is-a-scam.325080/page-3 or my own.
This is strange for me, I still see, all of us, retail-ex-amateur traders as a large tribe of likeminded persons and hope that support will grow, as it was on the floors times ago.
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Oh yeah, and then taking driving lessons (often for a fee) from people who don't know how to drive. Hah.