Why do people believe in this?

[Remiraz]

Quote from NKNY:

Shhhhhh...cumooon man...your givin it away.... let them keep looken for 60 , 70 and 80 % correct stuff....


Nick

on topic:

yet the "laws" still says "tend to"...which means there is a more than 50% chance.

off topic:

spend some time with a backtester. you'll find that as you tighten your stop loss, your winning % drops so in the end you break even.

thats why everyone is obsessed with looking for an "edge". "edge" = when stop loss equals take profit, chance is above 50%.

no offence but thats basic statistics/probability. the % chance doesn't really matter when viewed independently from the payoff.

 

[NKNY]

Quote from Remiraz:

on topic:

yet the "laws" still says "tend to"...which means there is a more than 50% chance.

off topic:

spend some time with a backtester. you'll find that as you tighten your stop loss, your winning % drops so in the end you break even.

thats why everyone is obsessed with looking for an "edge". "edge" = when stop loss equals take profit, chance is above 50%.

no offence but thats basic statistics/probability. the % chance doesn't really matter when viewed independently from the payoff.

No offence taken........but I ask you, whats wrong with breaking even....As long as you are trading a method that will allow you to capitalize on a major move.... if and when the market decides to ever move.... there is nothing wrong with breaking even in my book... Heck...if I could break even while I wait I wouldn't have any drawdowns...

The market will give you money when it wants to.... the traders job is to stay alive while waiting and not missing any opportunities since he never knows when the big moves will occur.......

He should never restrict his upside while always restricting his downside...

Got to go eat some breakfast now....
Nick

 

[stock777]

Quote from Equalizer:

What, you expected the "real world" to be logical, fair, or make sense?

Not really, but it irks me when googly (no pun) eyed patsies make tons of money by being in the right spot of a ponzi conga line.


Ponzi conga line, damn that's good. I better copyright it quick before some hack steals it.

 

[Equalizer]

Quote from stock777:

Not really, but it irks me when googly (no pun) eyed patsies make tons of money by being in the right spot of a ponzi conga line.


Ponzi conga line, damn that's good. I better copyright it quick before some hack steals it.

LOL. I'm with ya Bro. All I can say is, chill out and don't let it get to you (easy for me to say). Guzzle some Jim Beam and munch on some "muffin" and all will be better.

BTW. I believe Taleb has something to say about those lucky sods being in the right place at the right time ... something about Randomness

rESpeKT !

 

[Remiraz]

Quote from NKNY:

No offence taken........but I ask you, whats wrong with breaking even....As long as you are trading a method that will allow you to capitalize on a major move.... if and when the market decides to ever move.... there is nothing wrong with breaking even in my book... Heck...if I could break even while I wait I wouldn't have any drawdowns...

The market will give you money when it wants to.... the traders job is to stay alive while waiting and not missing any opportunities since he never knows when the big moves will occur.......

He should never restrict his upside while always restricting his downside...

Got to go eat some breakfast now....
Nick

if winners - losers = break even, one will lose money due to spread/slippage/comms.

if u can break on all trades and make money on some then thats not breaking even, thats having a huge edge.

hope you enjoyed your breakfast.