Quote from Samsara:
Most of those who have found success are content to only live well; all fine and good. There are many on this site of a purist libertarian ideology that see harm in the willingness to contribute to anything that concerns the public: public good, positive externalities, etc. I recognize aspects of the argument, but feel strict adherence to it goes off the wrong path. I personally appreciate those who do use capitalism to enhance public goods and others' lives in general -- it's rare and certainly more interesting than the norm.
I think people rightfully will not automatically trust anyone's assertions of vast trading wealth because it's irresponsible to believe anything prima facie. However, I actually do believe you tell the truth of your method precisely because of the kind of thinking your language indicates. Plus, behavior as you see it, particularly related to volume, does match what I see.
I did spend some time analyzing Spydertrader's explication and found that his mind operates differently than mine, and his method is not perfectly compatible with how I see behavior. This is not due to the trappings of conventional wisdom but because channel drawing on that granular of a level carries too much uncertainty and interpretation for me. Besides that, while I have never personally experienced an SCT or PVT trader, I have known personally people who make money by trading on movement in correlated products.
Thus I have seen proof that probabilistic modeling of market behavior does produce consistently profitable traders and only agree, in part, with your claim that "CW" is bullshit. My own method is a mix of tested indicators based on correlated movement and sheer intuition. It is the intuition that agrees with the broadstrokes method you describe -- yours moreso than Spydertrader's, that is.
At any rate, I agree with your assertions and benefit from the things you write here. You do not speak to me like there is something psychologically wrong, only that your language evinces an uncommon kind of intelligence. There are many people here whom I intuit are successful at understanding markets who are very different and nonetheless interesting. For instance, wrbtrader, NoDoji, Rearden Metal, bone, Arthur Deco, lescor, etc. -- very different ways of seeing market behavior than yours. The problems of your detractors and other mentally damaged types are very easy to identify, naturally.
I'm glad you introduced the spectrum of success and that you point out there are many successful and diverse ways to approach the markets.
There are a huge host of vendors who sell methods that satisfy the retail market.
The entire financial industry has huge pools of money, where over time for premiums, capital continues to change hands.
Greenspoon is used in Steinbarger's vendor info as a good example of his client's success.
Greenspoon makes an average of 10,000 net a day trading 400 contracts (ES) doing 60 turns a day. This marginal propensity does involve Steinbarger video taping him and his continuing "care" by Steinbarger.
The people you mention, from my reading of their contributions, are continually dealing with approach modifications that benefit their bottom lines. They express a connection between what they change and the evidence to them that they make needed changes to respond to market operation differences for assorted reasons.
I take, at face value, anything any of these people say in their posts or on their vending sites.
A good drag and drop system can be used to create an ATS of any of their trading approaches, including the discretion they note. This type of thing hase been done for ages. The ATS's make money. Some would call this reverse engineering of a given trading method.
There are many reporting systems that qualify and quantify the full spectrum of this CW oriented trading.
Professional and big money performance falls into this spectrum as well. The collective efforts of the financial multimefia industry fully record the range of practices and the amount of trading success that occurs.
I am cetain that you have noticed how one performance standard can be used to judge another performance result. Lets say this bilateral activity existed and has been done. It has.
Glance at the vocabulary used to state the assessed results.
My collective view of CW performance is characterized as BS. Even the Behavioral Dinance webb site coyly titles a seminal description of believing or not believing BF as" "BF or BS?"
When I see NSF cofinancing "studies" on markets in several ways, I lean forward to examine whether the CW of the Financial Industry is making forward progress. I am not sceptical BUT I am immediately intregued by the possibility of forward progress.
These kinds of papers cannot be discussed in any forum at present.
I have an intense interest in how any trader can overcome the Behavioral Finance determinations of how and why traders behave as they do. A given corollary is why do some knids of trader not fall into this description?
One milestone path worth examining regarding the pitfals, is Mark Douglas. A parallel one regarding unsuccessful TA applied to Trends is Covel. My gifting the pattern to Covel a while back got an assessment using his standard. His judgment was "gibberish". How could it be otherwise.
Darvas's discovery and his follow through to it is a very interesting model for the present CW world. It was never possible for the media nor the government to render a judgment of Darvas.
I skim many publications. One interest is seeing how close those in the news are to an understanding of what is going on.
My operating space is described by Larry Harris (page 199) as a speculator who is parasitic and frontrunning from a technical vantage point. Thus, I see Futures Magazine articles from a humorous viewpoint. The stuff printed, from my viewpoint, is flawed and probably not a good idea for readers to include in their learning or maintenance process.
Here is a good basic crude example.
If a person writes a book and sells it to people through a marketing effort, why can't those persons meet a minimum plublic standard?
My book standard is finding one particular word in the index of any book. Covel and Douglas dropped the ball from my viewpoint.
I also feel any scientific government paper on markets must include the variables of the market in proportion to their relative importance for making money considering the stated scope and bounds of the paper. NSF papers do not pass this test.
Some very important legislative and executive processes are underway with respect to this Depression. Not everyone has immunity to the Depression. I feel very strongly that innocent victims should be well protected from those who are demonstating conflicts of interest in the solutions.
A recent documantary-comedy is now showing. "Inside Job" is an order of magnitude more entertaining than the "Wall Street" dramas of recent years. Naming a shirt after a guy is cool and very 'telling about the guys who wear them.
Thanks for engaging with those participating in this thread.