Why do people believe day trading will get them rich quick?
- Thread starter emg
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Quote from Samsara:
Thank you for the compliment. I'm a bit different than many here in that while I'm drawn to pattern-recognition enterprises, my real interests are actually in flighty stuff like philosophy and literature.
In spite of some evidence on my part to the contrary, I think we are soul mates.
contact them. that is my source. Contacting the gov agencies is based on facts.
The gov agencies are my source. best way to get the legal source.
every year, the gov agencies do research by auditing all regulated brokerages.
One of the reason to find the percentage of people losing trading the markets is to upgrade the risk and create new policy. For example, last yr, CFTC /nfa created a hedging policy in the FX to protect small retail traders
SEC and CFTC will be creating a policy to prevent flash crash.
and so on
Your post is interesting; it demonstrates how broadly an evaluation can range over various topics.
Solving the puzzle (in fact, the system) of very successful trading does provide a deep benefit intellectually; secondly, it certainly shortcuts the path to wealth.
Knowing and understanding one's self is even more important.
Surprisingly, you interject tha aspect of pain. In my case you can replace pain with a simple composite of prior experience. The before and fater line in the sand for trading is something usually loct on most people.
For me the composite was the "perfect storm" of positive sectors. I would say mostly unimaginable for most people.
Thus as you say, I am very capable of setting up filters to "block" the unattractive from participating in wealth building.
My basic principle is to extend my reach as far as possible. I did this drom the beginning in 1957. Usually 15 professional people like psychiatrists and psychologists contributed 1 day a week free to help others who could not afford their skills. NFA contributed the limit of 15.
Later when the PC, email, the webb, etc was invented this limit became limitless in the econometric sense. I could deal directly, indirectly, through induced effects and there is no substitution.
Here you see detractors supporting my interests by doing more broad based dummy type filtering of the not too swift mentality sort of people. It is my positive "substitution" effect. Creating these people is a natural spimoff of eliminanting regraining from helping people who have crossed the line in the sand as people who have learned failure in trading.
Almost anyone can be a successful trader, BUT as a persomn makes successive ill chosen decisions, he exceuses himself from success.
What I profer has a vocabulary that is foreign the CW type readers. You see it as a puzzle. Most fields of interest or discovery are probably puzzles to you as well. Not me, I see areas of interest and discovery as systemmically explorable opportunities. Hence anyone who knows me associates me with PL 92-500. EIS of NEPA and alcohol as an oxygenated fuel additive that replaced lead, and its by products as THE stress eliminating feed additive of several food production centers and continuous fermentation as a modern innovation.
Everyone, roughly speakin and daily, is impacted by their water quality, their local environmental wuality, and their lower polluting travel in thier cars. These things to me represent stweardship, power to the people, and reducing global warming. 31 books, so far, relate to these things. Ford Foundation's seed grant on what became known as the environment, lead directly to PL 92-500. So others amd myself were referred to as the "Green Mafia" when the supreme court can to have to handle these changes in our culture.
The "perfect storm"composite of my experience oriented me just as a left grad school and had to deal with life long Freedom.
The markets, to me, from when I was introduced to them were totally systemmatic and the system is free of noise and anomalies. So there was never any pain and, from the very beginning extrcting capital was like taking candy away from a baby. The baby may have wanted to keep it but the baby wasn't very smart or informed; I was.
CW and probabilities is bullshit and always has been. The market is binary because of its operating rulles and tools for participation.
There is no puzzle and there is only one pattern composed of the variables of the market. To you, I speak like something is psychologically wrong with me. that is your mistake in not recognizing that any field of science has its unique vocabulary and language. For me it is three broad things: Paradigm theory od Keynes; logic theory of Carnap and mathematically Boolean Algebra of George Boole.
I have declined faculty positions at many places, among others The Jung Institute and the Dpet of Psychiatry, Michigan. On the otherhand I have been an Adj Prof at many other places. All were at the inivtation of others; I have never sought a position anywhere in my life. I have declined all financial industry jobs but one; there I was a consultant "fix it" guy in the late 50's while living in Greenwich, Conn.
How any person approaches the market system is through his wants and rarely his needs.
I do not expect very many people to see the significance of 01SEP09. This is how people separate themselves into two classes.
So for me, I have traded and helped others for about 53 years. They are a self selecting group who simply recognize how pool extraction works on the basis of a paradigm and its applications. It is very very fortunate for me to remain under the radar all during this time (Except when the SEC was screwing up profiling with their first account monitoring computers; they learned slowly the mistakes they were making).
I get the best of all worlds. I get to work with terrific people. these people contribute to the solving of local problems. Most of all, I am not bothered by those who trapped themselvesi nthe CW and the myths it spawned.
Having a vocabulary and language that is foreign to the financial industry is a distinct advantage. Working in the applied neurosciences and medicine and their pathology applications, has always been an advantages in terms of communications.
So I have been through the modelling, development, design, implementation and operation of a market system and its appications that is noise and anomaly free. Chosing to do pool extraction, to me, is the only way to face the market's offer continually. All of the corollaries of the market system are binary in nature. The market has one pattern and from it come the order of events of the market.
Think how fortunate we users are. No one believes us. No one understands us. No one makes money as we do since it is regarded as impossible and unbelievable.
Read: Trader666, Trader28, Covell, Marketsurfer, TraderZones, Babak, redneck, and so many many others.
Also read their counterparts: W. J. O'Neil, Darvas, and all the guys who appeared on "Great Traders You Have Never Heard Of" at past tradersExpo's.
Best of all, for passing it forward, read Spydertrader.
It is getting more and more evident that few people understand how their minds work. How could Mark Douglas get to the niche he made for himself? He is paid to "fix" CW type people who got themselves broken by how their minds work.
For me, traing yourself out of fear anxiety and anger is a non starter. Behavioral Finance is clear on what these self signals represent. They are saying the person doesn't know what he is doing nor know what is going on. The Detractors on ET all respond to our stuff with anxiety, fear and anger. Are these guys healthy? Not according to Mark Douglas.
Most of those who have found success are content to only live well; all fine and good. There are many on this site of a purist libertarian ideology that see harm in the willingness to contribute to anything that concerns the public: public good, positive externalities, etc. I recognize aspects of the argument, but feel strict adherence to it goes off the wrong path. I personally appreciate those who do use capitalism to enhance public goods and others' lives in general -- it's rare and certainly more interesting than the norm.
I think people rightfully will not automatically trust anyone's assertions of vast trading wealth because it's irresponsible to believe anything prima facie. However, I actually do believe you tell the truth of your method precisely because of the kind of thinking your language indicates. Plus, behavior as you see it, particularly related to volume, does match what I see.
I did spend some time analyzing Spydertrader's explication and found that his mind operates differently than mine, and his method is not perfectly compatible with how I see behavior. This is not due to the trappings of conventional wisdom but because channel drawing on that granular of a level carries too much uncertainty and interpretation for me. Besides that, while I have never personally experienced an SCT or PVT trader, I have known personally people who make money by trading on movement in correlated products.
Thus I have seen proof that probabilistic modeling of market behavior does produce consistently profitable traders and only agree, in part, with your claim that "CW" is bullshit. My own method is a mix of tested indicators based on correlated movement and sheer intuition. It is the intuition that agrees with the broadstrokes method you describe -- yours moreso than Spydertrader's, that is.
At any rate, I agree with your assertions and benefit from the things you write here. You do not speak to me like there is something psychologically wrong, only that your language evinces an uncommon kind of intelligence. There are many people here whom I intuit are successful at understanding markets who are very different and nonetheless interesting. For instance, wrbtrader, NoDoji, Rearden Metal, bone, Arthur Deco, lescor, etc. -- very different ways of seeing market behavior than yours. The problems of your detractors and other mentally damaged types are very easy to identify, naturally.
You're right blotto, they would safe guard their edge. What most do is give out general information and people have a mirage. Back to the thread tittle, people are delusional, they see one person become rich they all want the same dream. Why do some play lotto? same reason. Since i started this game has changed, it was real easy one time, still, money is out there and 100,000 months are around but very rare. Just remember the internet people talk up a great game but in reality i have met very few who have been 1/2 of what they claim they are.