Why do my breakouts smell?

I trade NYSE listed stocks. My method is a breakout of a volatility adjusted regression line w/ envelope. Works well in hindsight, but I can't get it to work live.

I wanted drinks for their sake alone, not for trading.

The channel dynamically adjusts. NYSE stocks are noisy on a five min chart (maybe it's just my brain). One min charts are crazy. All for this method of course.

I think I may just need better exit logic.

To see something close to what I mean, put up a 40 period Bollinger Band and set the standard deviation to .5 Easiest way to show you an approximation of the channel. Heck, if it works for you enjoy it. Oh, you don't enter on the original breakout. You wait for a break out from that bar.

Best I can describe it. Try it out on all time frames. I love hindsight. Came up with it by accident. Looked promising, but I can't seem to get it right. And I know that's a problem with the exits. Don't really have an exit rule atm other than a MA.


B
 
Jack says all ya gotta do is place stop market orders on both sides of a cornsolidation. Cain't lose! I recommend NQ. I need more playmates.

Plus, there is a helpful community of NQ traders just waiting and wanting to provide sound trading advice. I personally know of 19 here.
 
Quote from Bogwaluth:

So I came up with a fairly simple method of trading breakouts intraday off a five minute chart. When I go back and look at any chart, it works like a charm. When I try and trade it live, I always end up shorting the low and having my stop get hit. Same for longs.

My tape reading smells, I can't trade breakouts, I can' t put my finger on anything that may work.

Whining over. Just needed to vent. It's not like things don't move.

I feel like everytime I enter an order I am immediately fighting the market.

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More...
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1]Bogwaluth;
It can be a tough business, have seen the trend change the same day you help someone/announce trend;
it will not change today, since regular market hours just ended.

2] Apparently you are entering shorts a hi% too late;
not always too late or you could simply go long/profit,100% accuracy.[on your ''late'' short signal]

3] ES & YM SPY,DIA are in medium , & weekly, daily downtrends;
so you are fighting the market [if long] ALMOST ANYTIME last few days weeks , months. So you are making progress I feel , like you, recognize you are quote ''fighting the market.' 'unquote.

4 more]XLE sector is still nicely uptrending, so not warning against longs;
just warning new trader on countertrends which can be tricky.

:cool: And if you averaged top traders[Jack Schwager] 3 books,
years to profitability would be about, not exact;
6 months= low
10 years =hi
=============
Bottom line average time to profit=5.3 years
Wisdom is profitable to direct.
 
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