Why do moving averages SUCK so much?

[easymon1]

You go right on ahead and keep showing successes, but no failures. It's brilliant.

There's a whole thread I set up on dtop and dbot trade failures.
PLEASE, Everyone is invited to POST Failed Double Bot and Top Trades Right Here Baby.

If you can include ANY Indicator with the chart so see if it sheds light on why the setup failed. Usually, Any Setup is learned by taking Lessons From The Failed Examples. Dont Do Dat! lol.
Who better than critics to supply the Failed Examples Of Any Setup So those wanting to consider why they fail can have plenty of fodder.

If you don't have any Indicators you want to include, just put the 50MA and any other MA EMA, whatever MA on there with it.
Also Stoch, MACD, Bollinger, Keltner, Donchian, etc, etc, etc offer examples of stuff to throw One or Two of on the chart.
No need to turn it into a Circus Chart, lol.

Double Top, Dbl Bottom. Show your Opinion, Use Charts - Especially Non-Workings! Text is cheap, lol.
https://www.elitetrader.com/et/thre...-text-is-cheap-lol.348337/page-5#post-5171429

Thanks, now back to the thread...

I'm curious what the uni looked like on that cl.

Entry setups generally work in swarms. No single one will usually point up an opportunity without having plenty of company by several other methods around the same time.

 

[Overnight]

There's a whole thread I set up on dtop and dbot trade failures.
Where's your chart?
What's the prob?
I'm curious what the uni looked like on that cl.
Whats to kvetch about that?

Oh, you were serious on seeing it. Hang on, let me pull one up.

 

[easymon1]

Oh, you were serious on seeing it. Hang on, let me pull one up.

Hell yeah, nobody has a mortal lock on the one best way to trade.
You been at this a while, must be something there.
Thanks.
Maybe LFly will see the light.
What's your method called LF, Wickless Candle Overlaps?
Show us?

 

[Overnight]

Here is it on a 20,10 (Big-ass chart) during the dates you posted.

 

[easymon1]

Here is it on a 20,10 (Big-ass chart) during the dates you posted.

View attachment 253508

Smooth.
can you expand that scale vertically?
Where could a setup or two be demonstrated on that CL for Mar 1?

 

[easymon1]

Here is it on a 20,10 (Big-ass chart) during the dates you posted.

View attachment 253508

Onight, What does a Gap look like on a chart like that?

 

[Overnight]

Onight, What does a Gap look like on a chart like that?

Here's the Sunday night gap up on NQ (MNQ) on a 20,10 (again, that's a big-ass chart.).

The purple horizontal lines show the low and high, for the first minute.

The blue vertical line marks 24 seconds after the open, when activity started to wind down a little, as you can see on the time stamps at the bottom of the screen.

 

[murray t turtle]

Chart has to many lines and colors, so did easymon1 make a prediction on today's price action, and if he did how did he do?

%%
I never worry about the colors;
or his hindsight lines.

 

[nattybumppo]

I'd agree that you should never trade just one signal (I use dozens), but it doesn't follow from that you shouldn't test individual signals. To bend your analogy, I'm not going to throw an ingredient into my cake without checking to see it's edible and hasn't passed it's expiry date.

I'm adding together signals in a linear way (with weighted averages). The weight a given signal has will depend on how good it is, and whether it diversifies the other signals. If I don't test in isolation I can't find this information. If a signal adds value despite being crap individually, or without being an excellent diversifier, then it must be because of some weird non linear effect and frankly I wouldn't want to add a signal that added value like that because I wouldn't be able to explain what was going on - a big no, no in any trading system.



Computers are indeed over rated, but a trader who thinks accompanied by sensible backtesting is a potent combination that will beat a trader who is acting purely on gut instinct



I guess it depends on what you mean by 'trading like a hedge fund'. Obviously there are advantages and also disadvantages to having modest capital, but generally speaking hedge funds make fewer stupid mistakes than the average retail trader. So I'd argue that most retail punters could learn a lot from better understanding the way that quant and systematic funds in particular manage their risk and trading costs.

GAT

By "trading like a hedge fund" (which I do not favor), I mean relying on diversification when exploiting liquidity is superior if you are not managing funds too large to do that. Also, rigidly mechanical systems that can be computerized and run without human help. I understand why big funds do this, but as a small trader do you really want your mechanized systems to go head to head against their mechanized systems? I'm pretty sure they have multiple programmers who do nothing but constantly write and test these programs.
I favor honing my skills, judgment, and personal discipline, which I think the big firms increasingly try to avoid in favor of inflexible systems that can be easily computerized but minimize the risk of individual trader error.

Basically, I am asking, where is our edge as retail traders? I don't think it is in doing things the same way that hedge funds do them, because they will always be better at that.

But I do agree that the retail trader might learn something from them about managing risk, trading costs, or macro cycle analysis.

OTOH, even for risk management, big funds are drawdown averse because their clients, who are not privy to the methods being used, are understandably nervous about drawdowns. But if you are trading your own money, some trading systems produce the biggest profits if you are willing to tolerate bigger drawdowns than hedge fund clients can stomach. For any system, there is an optimum level of drawdown that will maximize profits, but if you are managing other people's money, then minimizing drawdown becomes a goal in its own right. Most of their rich clients are not trying to maximize their returns, just make a "good enough" return on their already large fortunes. What they don't want to see is volatility.

 

[nattybumppo]

%%
Good points.
Actually that does not fail in a bear market\pro downtrend/it just takes longer to profit=big difference,.....................................................................................................

By "fail," I mean they tend to give premature exit signals during bear markets because short covering often causes sharp but limited rallies well before reaching the bottom of the move.